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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny summers, cold & snowy winters
  • Location: Loggerheads, Staffs

    Well, I have total confidence in this from the GFS. Totally convinced. And only 340 hours away. Please......

    355076938_snowgfs.thumb.JPG.aa72291cfa0dd56aedf58a2a479dd36f.JPG

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    Polar Maritime has requested an end to the "who was right/wrong" discussion. Please move on.
    I'll be moving any further posts to the 'chat and banter' thread. Thank you.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
    4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    The Uk and RoI make up something like 0.06% of the earth's surface, as you say, there's no way large macro teleconnections can accurately say whether and East Asia Mountain Torque (for example) will provide snow in these islands at a certain point in the next 2-4 weeks.

    They can give a broad idea of where the main heights and troughs may be and that might give an indication of "potential".

    I think the expectations versus potential is the problem here, you will have resident experts flagging up timeframes for potential and that is mixed in with a few favourable model runs...Bingo for some, you get talk of winter tyres being needed 'next week'.

    The balloon deflates when another chance is missed, but a chance was all it was and I'm not sure anyone has said the background signals are a garuntee for UK snow as some seem to imagine. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    A nice day for sailing down the east coast of Greenland...Plenty of 'zephyrs' to be had:?

    image.thumb.png.b14ae51958ab33da356b2665ae5948da.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    1 hour ago, TEITS said:

    I really do not want to repeat what I said last winter so I shall make this quick.

    My doubt with teleconnections is due to 3 reasons. We do not fully understand them and secondly and more importantly how these interact with each other. Finally the use of these for a tiny Island such as ours is currently impossible. I simply do not believe we can make an accurate long range forecast for the UK.

    Finally I do not place all my faith in the models. As I stated before Xmas, I am now just focussing on upto +144 with a passing glance at the ECM to +240. My logic is simply due to many years on this weather forum and becoming tired of all these promising background signals that amount to nothing.

    The way I look at the background signals is this - developments/changes with certain broad scale, global weather patterns, whether that be a SSW, AAM, the MJO etc, can increase the probability of the UK having a cold spell. No more, no less. It shouldn’t be used as a “forecast” in the traditional sense or a guarantee of anything. It is up to NWP and our Met agencies to make sense of all of these background signals and turn that into a forecast for our region within a semi reliable time frame. 

    These same background signals were responsible for our cold spell last year, in 2013 and on many other occasions. Yes, there are also times when positive background signals don’t deliver for us, and that could well happen this year. All it does is increase the probability - surely anything that increases the probability, albeit not guaranteeing, a UK cold spell should be taken seriously? 

    The problem comes when some people on this forum assume that because we’ve had a SSW or that other factors look favourable that we are inevitably going to get a freeze. If people re-set their expectations accordingly then we may get less head banging on here on a daily basis. 

    We don’t even know yet whether the current SSW is a pass or fail for the UK. We won’t know until the end of this winter season, so people need to hold off on making a judgement. There is still more than half of meteorological winter left to play out. 

    Lastly, the alternative to the current SSW and split PV is a raging PV with no prospects of amplification. I know what I’d rather prefer. The former increases our chances while the latter would consign us to very little or no prospect of anything cold. 

    Edited by danm
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    38 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    It's what a number of American Meteorologist's have been saying recently (Joe Cioffi) 

    My main problem with this is if you look at the SLP ensembles this doesn't look to be the case.

    Aberdeen SLP suggests pressure falling, possibly gales by the 17th with a deep LP.

    prmslAberdeenshire.png

    No indication of blocking over Greenland over the next 7-10 days.

    prmslReyjavic.png

    My punt is slowly becoming more unsettled with only brief colder NW,lys.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Agreed to the above...big bust from the ec46 I fancy and seasonal models.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    5 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    My main problem with this is if you look at the SLP ensembles this doesn't look to be the case.

    Aberdeen SLP suggests pressure falling, possibly gales by the 17th with a deep LP.

     

    No indication of blocking over Greenland over the next 7-10 days.

     

    My punt is slowly becoming more unsettled with only brief colder NW,lys.

    True about the ensembles but don't forget thats Iceland, and then initially we are only looking at wedges so the pressure would'nt be a huge rise, and those wedges could bring very cold - non-marginal conditions over the whole country, plus its likely to take a few goes to get cold in, Just give it until the modelling reaches around Feb the 5th, you might be surprised that by then we are about to have a N'ly and a brutal E'ly might just be coming into range - just give it a try.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything except blazing hot summers!
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
    6 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    My main problem with this is if you look at the SLP ensembles this doesn't look to be the case.

    Aberdeen SLP suggests pressure falling, possibly gales by the 17th with a deep LP.

    prmslAberdeenshire.png

    No indication of blocking over Greenland over the next 7-10 days.

    prmslReyjavic.png

    My punt is slowly becoming more unsettled with only brief colder NW,lys.

    This is indeed the case in the time period that those graphs show (up to 23rd Jan). However many of us have been looking towards the end of Jan for some time now, which will not be reflected in these charts. 

    T+384 on the NWP is still only 23rd Jan!

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    33 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    The ENS looking to go decidedly cold to me towards the period of interest moving forward, but that's not a promise either.. It's a very difficult setup to nail down at the moment, no matter who you are!

    image.thumb.png.e7397a466becf7647eb27453069e2d70.png

    It's the same every year, come mid winter if it's not been a favourable one, the "lets blame the LRF brigade come out"! Tiresome is an understatement!

    Yes and on top of this the bashing the lrf have endured when were not even 1/4 of a way through January we've already had a few colder days the CET is not far from average currently with just a few slightly milder than average days likely before a steady progression to colder on the near horizon based upon those ensembles meaning we still could end up with a below average January. I'm remaining optimistic?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS mean is still looking good in the mid / longer term with the jet digging further south and an increasing chance of colder incursions bringing some snow at times..far better than what we've seen so far this winter..in my opinion!?❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Quite like the look of the atlatic at 192 hours on the gfs 6z.looks a good angle going forward.Wedge gate could be imminent hopefully!!!!!?

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Yes this current gfs run looking interesting , squirrels take note  ,it will freeze your nuts off .?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Good consistency  from the 6z  compared to the 0z    something to build on.   

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    Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
    32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    A nice day for sailing down the east coast of Greenland...Plenty of 'zephyrs' to be had:?

    image.thumb.png.b14ae51958ab33da356b2665ae5948da.png

    Hello Pete,

    I have always fancied a classic Ford?.

    Seriously though if only we only tap into that frigid air we would really be in business, especially in our neck of the woods. Possibility of a polar low forming in all that instability? one can only dream.

    Kind Regards

    Dave

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GFS6z is the second consecutive GFS run to bring the northerly through at day 9 (16th).

    GFSOPEU06_216_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    21 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Agreed to the above...big bust from the ec46 I fancy and seasonal models.

    How can it be a bust as it’s only jan 7th?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    GFS6z is the second consecutive GFS run to bring the northerly through at day 9 (16th).

    GFSOPEU06_216_2.png

    Indeed SB...it's just about what we should expect, IMO...?

    image.thumb.png.8b9c414c44973e4fd36bb2313e51423a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    The lows fazing together at the tip of Greenland may scupper the run here imo.hopefully no push of heights towards the uk  from our friend the azores!!!!

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Some decent MLB-

    And we get a northerly (of sorts)..

    And at least a reasonable arctic incur.

    Its really not all doom n, gloom..

    And can certainly get better as we gain.

     

    gfsnh-1-228.png

    gfsnh-0-222.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
    2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Looking like a pretty consistent signal , people shouldn’t be so doom and gloom - METO been tracking this date lately too!! 

    Yes, although T+300 and beyond, good to see a similar pattern to the end of the 00z on GFS. Heights really building over North East Canada and looking to link with the Atlantic. Lets hope it now edges closer. 

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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