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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
    1 hour ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

    Although some of the coldest and snowiest have come after a mild December.. 1947 and 1963 for example.. 

     

    December 1962 wasn't mild, at least here in NW England.  We saw the first snow showers arrive in mid-December with lying snow during Christmas Day and Boxing Day '62.  This is from actual experience.

    Autumn '62 was very mild with the first frosts occurring in late November.

    Edited by Wildswimmer Pete
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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Evening all and firstly may I say ,and the beat s still on or maybe the beast

    Secondly the pendulum models still goes on as they struggle to any real consistency apart from one more than the others but as I have said before come the weekend the fog hopefully will begin to lift and show us what we want to see being forecast for the middle of the month,blocking ,AO at -5, bringing sub zero temps ,snow and no David bett mentioning it's going to be mild he he 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

    It did all this wobbling back in February last year so it's no surprise that it will happen again this year.

    The only wobbling they did wrt the strat modelling was in FI before the SSW was nailed on and the details were more certain, it was rock solid strat wise after that, it had a few wobbles wrt timing its impact on the trop but once it latched onto roughly the right timeline, the only wobble on the Easterly was one thursday night about a week and a half before the event where a good number of op runs had it much further south as one of those that few snow grains for the SE as the high to far south, recovered by the friday night and ens were rock solid from there on in on the transition to Easterly winds although ropey wrt length of cold spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    7 minutes ago, Essexfish said:

    I can see your point but can also remember many occasions when models have struggled much beyond day 4.

    Not in the strat.

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    13 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

    It did all this wobbling back in February last year so it's no surprise that it will happen again this year.

    Spot on. Far from an expert, but I've been through about 7/8 SSW's as a weather enthusiast and they all react the same with trop responses on the NWP.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanway, Colchester
  • Location: Stanway, Colchester
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Not in the strat.

    Ok, fair enough. 

    Lets see where we are at this time next week I guess. 

    Pub run first though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
    48 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    A few tweets i've read are from a phd student. Yes, a student who is quoting from papers in this field. Great .....read and learn, but his experience is limited, at the moment. 

     

    Definitely agreeing with, and applauding, your comments re not believing everything, but just wanted to say - some of us did our PhDs in our 40s whilst we were working as senior figures in our discipline...! ? 

    Not all PhD students are 23-year-old novices straight out of undergraduate degrees! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    17 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

    Definitely agreeing with, and applauding, your comments re not believing everything, but just wanted to say - some of us did our PhDs in our 40s whilst we were working as senior figures in our discipline...! ? 

    Not all PhD students are 23-year-old novices straight out of undergraduate degrees! 

    Fine.

    His website is full of other people's work.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    Mid next week we go in to a northerly for a time but where is high going  south or north east long range forecast just said we go back in to westerly are they right 

    er

     

    IMG_0009.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    Icon reinforces the thought process with a more amplified flow, note tge first trough sliding more SE now

    12z 126 had the main area of PVA over NW iceland

    18z 120 has a more NW > SE allignment with the core energy SE of Iceland -

    Allowing more amplification to the West

    Keener on the wave from the n Pacific day 4/5  on this run (as per ec and Ukmo

    the ec op was neg AO as per yesterday’s run till the wave hit the vortex straddled Asia to Canada, holding it over the pole  .....that was day 8 ..... it may not be like that come verification ....... another variable to throw in there 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
    4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Fine.

    His website is full of other people's work.

    Evening! No point squabbling about who has got phds in weather or whatever , the Weather remains a Mystery and will always do so...! Looks like a shot of something unsettled early next week....Something of note , the Airpressure tonight over Evesham in Worcestershire is a rare 1045mbs !!!

    wheel.png

    wheelx.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Not much joy to behold in the ecm ext ens. Apart from that one straggler.

    pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

    Control looks good ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Control looks good ?

    But is the control run ever going to verify lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Bit of a difference on the 18z already  step towards the euros?.

    gfsnh-0-108.png

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    More like the UKMO and ECM alright but probably everything a bit further east than the aforementioned so far. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
    1 hour ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

    December 1962 wasn't mild, at least here in NW England.  We saw the first snow showers arrive in mid-December with lying snow during Christmas Day and Boxing Day '62.  This is from actual experience.

    Autumn '62 was very mild with the first frosts occurring in late November.

    Apologies for the 62-63 I miss read that information I wasn’t around then..however I still stand by what I said some of the coldest come from mild Decembers. 

    My point was more about agreeing that there’s plenty of potential and scope with everything going on with the polar vortex In the atmosphere and the SSW it’s very interesting watching the models and reading all of comments and thoughts. In what could be an exciting time for cold/snow lovers... ?

    Edited by Yorkshirepudding
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    All three at 144h

    UN144-21.gif

    ECH1-144 (1).gif

    gfsnh-0-144.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Some wild swings in today’s  GFS runs both with the shortwave and the pattern to the ne .

    Good news is that it’s upstream pattern on the GFS 18 hrs run is trending towards the Euros and the same with the shortwave .

    Still too early though to be sure of getting over the first hurdle .

    Decision day tomorrow !

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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