Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I notice he says near the UK and not over it. how near is near? Finland is quite near compared to Japan for example.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.4k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    2 minutes ago, dinger said:

    Morning. I don't post much but I thought it would be prudent to remind those that are a bit pessimistic of our chances of a severe spell of cold weather that winter 1947 did not start until January 23rd and lasted until the middle of March. Snow fell somewhere in the UK every day for 55 consecutive days.

    After having read the brilliant post by 62-63 last night I am hopeful that something similar may be just around the corner.

    Have a good one.

     

    5FC140BE-761D-4202-ABAE-367D566B6D3D.jpeg

    43E55499-05DD-4D0B-A416-A60FEC5FECD1.jpeg

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    8 minutes ago, dinger said:

    Morning. I don't post much but I thought it would be prudent to remind those that are a bit pessimistic of our chances of a severe spell of cold weather that winter 1947 did not start until January 23rd and lasted until the middle of March. Snow fell somewhere in the UK every day for 55 consecutive days.

    After having read the brilliant post by 62-63 last night I am hopeful that something similar may be just around the corner.

    Have a good one.

    WOW, can you pop in here more often lol, the mood can be testing at times and that sounds just the Tonic! :santa-emoji:

    All seriousness though, I don't think we are going to need a DeLorean, come the end of Jan and as we head into Feb, our fortunes look set to change! 

    Edited by karlos1983
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    8 minutes ago, fromey said:

    Just going to put this out there, not sure how good this guy is, perhaps some can look into it

    C417B1E0-1DA1-4971-9424-0971EAF93B70.jpeg

    i’ve read his tweets before seems really knowledgable,let’s hope he is on the money ,trouble is any cold pool aiming for the U.K. nearly always seems to miss when it gets down into the reliable.

    Just shows you how amazing march 20018 was ,records in january would have been broken too if it had happened six weeks before.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

    Nov mean temperature 1.1 °C above the 1981-2010 England 

    Nov mean temperature 0.7 °C above the 1981-2010 Wales

    Nov mean temperature 1.3 °C above the 1981-2010 Scotland 

    Nov mean temperature 0.7 °C above the 1981-2010 Northern Ireland 

    Dec mean temperature 2.2 °C above the 1981-2010 England 

    Dec mean temperature 2.5 °C above the 1981-2010 Wales

    Dec mean temperature 1.4 °C above the 1981-2010 Scotland 

    Dec mean temperature 2.0 °C above the 1981-2010 Northern Ireland 

    5th mildest December in a series from 1910

    ????????????

    Hopefully this SSW can deliver something like the Para FV3 would do nicely to start with has been a long mild couple of months weather wise with dodgy signals.

    gfsnh-0-384 (2).png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    I am liking the potential showing on the FV3 this morning.

    A02E8A7A-1AF7-4C4D-9BAE-5F14766A878E.thumb.gif.785a84cdd5056cb92d5d5aae71262c2c.gif

    640FFAC5-70DC-4C0D-9DDB-CA427928022E.thumb.gif.07bcd40dfa67cfac5573c499008dba0e.gif

    Things are definitely looking up as we head towards the end of this month ?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

    i’ve read his tweets before seems really knowledgable,let’s hope he is on the money ,trouble is any cold pool aiming for the U.K. nearly always seems to miss when it gets down into the reliable.

    Just shows you how amazing march 20018 was ,records in january would have been broken too if it had happened six weeks before.

    Vogan is of a decent knowledge..

    Has an air of 'the british joe bastardi'..about him though!!!..

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    Anyway moving forward, the eps do look more amplified some what, I think the next 7 days we should (if strat warming downwells properly) start to see more exciting charts, a quick trop response is looking unlikely, 

    The Atlantic dominated period could well be the flushing down of the westerly winds from high up, quite often a short Atlantic period proceeds the cold block from the ssw.

    Edited by BornFromTheVoid
    Edited out removed comment.
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄

    Just been watching Gavins latest weather video going through the GFS Enables up to around the 20th/23rd.

    He always explains the models very well and what they are showing... He shows how Northern Blocking isn't showing but it doesn't mean it won't. 

    Here is the link if anyone is interested. 

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    1 minute ago, fromey said:

     

    That’s a little harsh! Are you tarring the very knowledgeable people on here as well who don’t have the qualifications you speak of? 

    Anyone can set up a website and post charts plus opinion. Simple really. Twitter-land spawns platforms for any Tom, Dick and Harriet.

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    25 minutes ago, dinger said:

    Morning. I don't post much but I thought it would be prudent to remind those that are a bit pessimistic of our chances of a severe spell of cold weather that winter 1947 did not start until January 23rd and lasted until the middle of March. Snow fell somewhere in the UK every day for 55 consecutive days.

    After having read the brilliant post by 62-63 last night I am hopeful that something similar may be just around the corner.

    Have a good one.

    To be fair, that is trotted out every winter with regular monotony including in the past by yours truly, and it's probably reached the stage by now where it's 'antibiotic' power has been severely compromised.

     

    What is a sobering thought at this juncture is that this winters modelling, full of the promise of background signals and promising FIs, is no different thus far from every winter that ends up disappointing.  While I certainly hope that this does not prove to be the case this year, one simply needs to go back to the discussions of early 2016/7 - a dreadful winter for snow and ice in my memory - to see how much ultimately unfounded optimism abounded in the forum.

    Twas ever thus. Twill ever be. But I can't help loving it!

    Edited by Timmytour
    Typos
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

    To be fair, that is trotted out every winter with regular monotony including in the past by yours truly, and it's probably reached the stage by now where it's 'antibiotic' power has been severely compromised.

     

    What is a sobering thought at this juncture is that this winters modelling, full of the promise of background signals and promising FIs, is no different this far from every winter that ends up disappointing.  While I certainly hope that this does not prove to be the case this year, one simply needs to go back to the discussions of early 2016/7 - a dreadful winter for snow and ice in my memory - to see how much ultimately unfounded optimism abounded in the forum.

    Twas ever thus. Twill ever be. But do can't help loving it!

    Thanks made me laugh!!! possibly best post of winter lol

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
    1 hour ago, carinthian said:

    Yes shaky, out in Vancouver they still waiting for their first taste of snow. Think parts of Canada having milder temps than normal so far.

    C

     

    I get the impression over the last week that your a bit disappointed with missing out on the serious/dangerous snow totals back in your adopted home.  What's it at now, 5, 6 feet?!! 

    I'm not going to say I have a 'feeling' that some juicy charts are about to emerge from the long grass over the next few days but....actually scrap that, I can feel it in my waters!

    Edited by minus86BriJ
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    1 hour ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

    I think all of us, me, you, everybody else on hear, has to accept that this year already has been a bust blue, we have been talking up a cold spell since November, we had a brief easterly back in the first few days of Dec, since then we've been waiting for it to return, around xmas time, was the theme, then just after into the new year, then mid Jan, now post 20th jan which is really a month late.

    Nobody is to blame because the weather does what it wants and we look to computer models to get the predicted impacts of the mjo, Glamm forecasts, sst's, strat forecasts etc etc, but as the computer rea-justs to having to recaculate one of the impacts it misread, so therefore the entire forecast can and does move, yes we continue to try and make forecasts as we move our forecasts inline with the new data available, but I honestly think for me at least I take all things on hear with a huge pinch of salt, one of the many reasons why I'm so quiet this year, by all means enjoy our hobby, we all have that in common but anyone hanging there boots on this forum, needs to seriously lower there expectations, 

    Granted we have amazing talent on hear, and I enjoy reading them as much as anyone, but anybody claiming that this year isn't already a bust is deluding themselves, even if this winter does turn around finally and deliver what we've all been waiting for, is stil 4 weeks late, with feb looking more like the only month we have to deliver, after the potential the winter had due to the background signals etc it's looking increasingly likely the weather has very different ideas. 

    This is not a moan, a mere observation of what's happened, let's hope the winter delivers what we all want and hopefully I will be the first one to have egg thrown in my face. 

    Have a good one ?

    Most of the background signals people have been aluding to have yet to materialise and If severe weather sets in at the end of jan and lasts for several weeks, we could potential be talking about the great winter of 2018/19 in years to come so far too early to be calling it a bust just yet. Wishful thinking i know but i'm still keeping the faith lol

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    2 minutes ago, minus86BriJ said:

     

    I get the impression over the last week that your a bit disappointed with missing out on the serious/dangerous snow totals back in your adopted home.  What's it at now, 5, 6 feet?!! 

    I'm not going to say I have a 'feeling' that some juicy charts are about to emerge from the long grass over the next few days but....actually scrap that, I can feel it in my waters!

    Yes, wish I was there but hopefully will be plenty still left when I return. I hope your waters are just right ! Another 10cm over night (total 150cm ) Cheers,

    C

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    16 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    I really do not want to repeat what I said last winter so I shall make this quick.

    My doubt with teleconnections is due to 3 reasons. We do not fully understand them and secondly and more importantly how these interact with each other. Finally the use of these for a tiny Island such as ours is currently impossible. I simply do not believe we can make an accurate long range forecast for the UK.

    Finally I do not place all my faith in the models. As I stated before Xmas, I am now just focussing on upto +144 with a passing glance at the ECM to +240. My logic is simply due to many years on this weather forum and becoming tired of all these promising background signals that amount to nothing.

    I would say if it was at all possible to do a verification table for teleconnections signals and how it effects are little isle wouldn't look for pretty reading.

    Edited by booferking
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    1 hour ago, fromey said:

    Just going to put this out there, not sure how good this guy is, perhaps some can look into it

    C417B1E0-1DA1-4971-9424-0971EAF93B70.jpeg

    It's what a number of American Meteorologist's have been predicting recently (Joe Cioffi) 

    Edited by snowblizzard
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Having just looked at the charts this morning  i thought they look quite decent   encouraged to see a change so early on the GFS 0z compared to the 18z run   wouldny surprise me to see cold charts appearing much closer than currently progged    Yours. The eternal optimist 

    • Like 7
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    15 minutes ago, booferking said:

    I would say if it was at all possible to do a verification table for teleconnections signals and how it effects are little isle wouldn't look for pretty reading.

    The Uk and RoI make up something like 0.06% of the earth's surface, as you say, there's no way large macro teleconnections can accurately say whether and East Asia Mountain Torque (for example) will provide snow in these islands at a certain point in the next 2-4 weeks.

    They can give a broad idea of where the main heights and troughs may be and that might give an indication of "potential".

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Settled, dry spell continues as daytime temperatures edge up a degree or so

      The risk of frost continues and it is chilly out of the sunshine but the fine, dry spell continues this week as the temperatures creep up, closer to average rather than below as they have been. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      2021 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season Outlook

      Samual Hayes explores the trends and the main influencing factors as the Arctic Sea Ice Melt season for 2021 gets underway. Read the full article

      BornFromTheVoid
      BornFromTheVoid
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...