The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Johnp 3,007]

2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

But still too prominent off the NE coast of Canada perhaps?

Agreed, looks like business as usual to me for the vortex - and much stronger than it is right now.

[offerman 1,427]

16 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Meanwhile GFS V3 and GFS are on the hunt

 

Winter of79, 

Thank you for posting those progressive animations.  I really enjoy seeing those from that perspective. Really does show the topology in a clear way to me. Big thumbs up. 

 

 

[carinthian 14,033]

11 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The misery of the British winter continues this morning with all main models at day 6 showing a warmer Atlantic flow pushing back in.. So much of the same , mostly dry and cloudy theme continues. Beyond 144t looks like turning a bit more mobile with colder incursions but not much sign of the Mid Atlantic high amplifying north by 240t Its just in the worse place for you guys. Maybe better prospects in the longer term? but must be testing your patience (cold lovers) it is mine and I do not live there !

C

Looking at the 500mb NH flow chart, both ECM and GFS are remarkably similar at  240t. There is just no sign of the high level amplification required for a change. Maybe we best hope for the UK high zone to transfer back east and give the chance of continental flow to bring the cold. This long term could be the best option. It just seems that any northerlies will only produce temporary incursions based on the current out puts. Looks like much of North America is in the same boat.

[shaky 6,206]

5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looking at the 500mb NH flow chart, both ECM and GFS are remarkably similar at  240t. There is just no sign of the high level amplification required for a change. Maybe we best hope for the UK high zone to transfer back east and give the chance of continental flow to bring the cold. This long term could be the best option. It just seems that any northerlies will only produce temporary incursions based on the current out puts. Looks like much of North America is in the same boat.

Was gona say the good thing is it looks like north america is having just as snowless and mild winter as we are here!!makes me feel slightly better lol!!normally they get pounded with blizzards and we got 13 degree temperatures!!

[carinthian 14,033]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Was gona say the good thing is it looks like north america is having just as snowless and mild winter as we are here!!makes me feel slightly better lol!!normally they get pounded with blizzards and we got 13 degree temperatures!!

Yes shaky, out in Vancouver they still waiting for their first taste of snow. Think parts of Canada having milder temps than normal so far.

C

[northwestsnow 25,394]

15 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Agreed, looks like business as usual to me for the vortex - and much stronger than it is right now.

Seconded John-

Clearly, this is not panning out as hoped or expected.

EC just churning out zonal carp after zonal carp, day after day.

+NAO - no end in sight..

[Severe Siberian icy blast 4,383]

41 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec tends towards that ‘flatter’ transition beyond day 10 that MWB mentioned yesterday evening having trawled through the eps members (it was evident in the mean too)

so I would caution against expectations that the 20th sees a sudden change to wintry nirvana ...... it rarely happens like that. a few days beyond I think if the higher heights are to establish. Good to see both the gfs and gfsp with a broken tpv by day 16 and troughing where we would expect to see it from the mean/anoms guidance ...........

I think all of us, me, you, everybody else on hear, has to accept that this year already has been a bust blue, we have been talking up a cold spell since November, we had a brief easterly back in the first few days of Dec, since then we've been waiting for it to return, around xmas time, was the theme, then just after into the new year, then mid Jan, now post 20th jan which is really a month late.

Nobody is to blame because the weather does what it wants and we look to computer models to get the predicted impacts of the mjo, Glamm forecasts, sst's, strat forecasts etc etc, but as the computer rea-justs to having to recaculate one of the impacts it misread, so therefore the entire forecast can and does move, yes we continue to try and make forecasts as we move our forecasts inline with the new data available, but I honestly think for me at least I take all things on hear with a huge pinch of salt, one of the many reasons why I'm so quiet this year, by all means enjoy our hobby, we all have that in common but anyone hanging there boots on this forum, needs to seriously lower there expectations, 

Granted we have amazing talent on hear, and I enjoy reading them as much as anyone, but anybody claiming that this year isn't already a bust is deluding themselves, even if this winter does turn around finally and deliver what we've all been waiting for, is stil 4 weeks late, with feb looking more like the only month we have to deliver, after the potential the winter had due to the background signals etc it's looking increasingly likely the weather has very different ideas. 

This is not a moan, a mere observation of what's happened, let's hope the winter delivers what we all want and hopefully I will be the first one to have egg thrown in my face. 

Have a good one ?

Edited January 7, 2019 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[karlos1983 21,819]

I’m happy with the small improvements overnight. We could quite easily be sitting here this morning saying it’s worse than yesterday, so bit of a six pointer and we won. No miracles were expected, slow and steady. Keep those ECM Ens in mind, let’s see what they show in 3-4 hours ?

I doubt many will be saying the same if they improve still at the point (date) of interest..... 

Edited January 7, 2019 by karlos1983

[northwestsnow 25,394]

1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

I think all of us, me, you, everybody else on hear, has to accept that this year already has been a bust blue, we have been talking up a cold spell since November, we had a brief easterly back in the first few days of Dec, since then we've been waiting for it to return, around xmas time, was the theme, then just after into the new year, then mid Jan, now post 20th jan which is really a month late.

Nobody is to blame because the weather does what it wants and we look to computer models to get the predicted impacts of the mjo, Glamm forecasts, sst's, strat forecasts etc etc, but as the computer reajusts to having to recaculate one of the impacts it misread, so therefore the entire forecast can and does move, yes we continue to try and make forecasts as we move our forecasts inline with the new data available, but I honestly think for me at least I take all things on hear with a huge pinch of salt, one of the many reasons why I'm so quiet this year, by all means enjoy our hobby, we all have that in common but anyone hanging there boots on this forum, needs to seriously lower there expectations, 

Granted we have amazing talent on hear, and I enjoy reading them as much as anyone, but anybody claiming that this year isn't already a bust is deluding themselves, even if this winter does turn around finally and deliver what we've all been waiting for, is stil 4 weeks late, with feb looking for and more like the only month we have to deliver, after the potential the winter had due to the background signals etc it's looking increasingly likely the weather has very different ideas. 

This is not a moan, a mere observation of what's happened, let's hope the winter delivers what we all want and hopefully I will be the first one to have egg thrown in my face. 

Have a good one ?

Brilliant post , think i agree with pretty much all you have said TBH..

 

[TomSE12 10,565]

A reasonable ensemble set for London from the 00z GFS run, with the average (850hPa) dropping below the mean, after 17th Jan.

 

Regards,

Tom. 

[Summer Sun 55,613]

20 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

A reasonable ensemble set for London from the 00z GFS run, with the average (850hPa) dropping below the mean, after 17th Jan.

Regards,

Tom. 

 

It was only 3 days ago the mean was shown to stay below the 0 line from around the 8th until the end of the run that's now shortened down to 48hrs before heading back above average with the next chance of dipping below later on.

 

 

Edited January 7, 2019 by Summer Sun

[IDO 8,473]

Looking at the GEFS at D16 for trends, the mean:

It appears that the UK was in a bad place to start with respect to the SSW effects. Strong support over days for the PV main source to be towards our NW so any GH or Atlantic Ridge builds are going to be fighting that PV lobe. The run with that scenario is no longer clustering and the best, assuming the status quo, are likely wedges.

Any interaction with the Arctic High, our main hope for major HLB'ing in our sector, is concentrated on the other side of the NH, with a nascent Pacific Ridge being the likely wave action.

Of course, there is still plenty of time for the UK to get some of the action but it does appear that my hopes for early snow/cold from the downwelling are lost (being greedy!). However, with the significant cold falling to our east, if we do get an easterly later in January, it will be a major cold spell.

Disappointed but not disheartened.

 

Edited January 7, 2019 by IDO

[shaky 6,206]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Brilliant post , think i agree with pretty much all you have said TBH..

 

Was gona say that has been exactly my point aswell!!what a brilliant post!!took the words right out of my mouth lol!!time is defo ticking away and with nothing much on the horizon in a reliable time frame anyway things could get extremely desperate very soon!!

[BornFromTheVoid 13,109]

Ok everyone. A few posts have been hidden. If you have an issue with another users comment, report it, don't respond. It being that dreaded Monday morning is no excuse!

Now, back to the hunt for cold?

[ICE COLD 11,578]

I think we will all take P10 this morning . Be positive Be positive Be positive ?

[carinthian 14,033]

57 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looking at the 500mb NH flow chart, both ECM and GFS are remarkably similar at  240t. There is just no sign of the high level amplification required for a change. Maybe we best hope for the UK high zone to transfer back east and give the chance of continental flow to bring the cold. This long term could be the best option. It just seems that any northerlies will only produce temporary incursions based on the current out puts. Looks like much of North America is in the same boat.

This 300mb wind flow chart from CMC GDPS at 240t may be the best option to a route for cold. This would offer a chance of a build of pressure NE. Just offers something different from what is shown on the main models. Still think we have to look east for any sustained cold spell to develop. Presently the high is just in the wrong place.

[mulzy 4,127]

The ext EPS (300 hours +) similar-ish to last night's run but I would say synoptically a little better - higher heights moving from mid-Atlantic towards southern Greenland with another band of higher heights crossing the pole and getting into northern Greenland.  The polar field in our sector looks the best it has for a while.  Trough over Europe remains as per previous suites.

Edited January 7, 2019 by mulzy

[bluearmy 44,591]

Eps still running out but already an improvement in the transition period with a less flat profile and hints of wedging in the svaalbard area coupled with mid Atlantic high anomoly growing north 

[northwestsnow 25,394]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Eps still running out but already an improvement in the transition period with a less flat profile and hints of wedging in the svaalbard area coupled with mid Atlantic high anomoly growing north 

Thanks Blue, and mulzy above for those posts..

For sure i'm feeling a bit deflated, i'm sure i am not alone..

But, with the post i am quoting it would appear things are still 'on track' in the background- really hope we get to enjoy some more 'interesting' charts over the coming days, even if they don't come off it will at least offer more interest..

[sunnijim 1,374]

A cursory glance at the output again this morning looks as though the 'hunt for cold' or cold 'proper' in terms of nationwide snow may go past any mid January prediction.....

However, on a rather uninspiring Monday morning, I bring news from my very own 'mystic Meg' that folk would do well not to laugh off too quickly.

The conversation was as follows

 

M" Have you heard the news ducky? 

SJ "what news?"

M " well the word I don't like to say,because it will cause me so many Problems!"

SJ " you mean snow?" No, nothing on the horizon,when was this for and who said it?

M "The weather person on Meridian news (local to SE England) said that towards the end of this month there is a much higher chance of snow,they got it spot on way in advance last winter!

SJ "Don't worry, I'm sure it won't happen.

Anyway, Does this 'forecaster' have access to 'in-house' super computers running projections and taking into account the SSW event I wonder?

Perhaps a big straw clutch to spread some chear this morning from me,but we can live in hope.

Hopefully the saying 'Mum is always right'will come to pass.

Edited January 7, 2019 by sunnijim

[fromey 2,345]

Just going to put this out there, not sure how good this guy is, perhaps some can look into it

[Weather-history 18,614]

33 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It was only 3 days ago the mean was shown to stay below the 0 line from around the 8th until the end of the run that's now shortened down to 48hrs before heading back above average with the next chance of dipping below later on.

 

 

GFS didn't even pick up the dip in the 850hpa values for Tuesday, last week as the above image shows. 

Edited January 7, 2019 by Weather-history

[East801 82]

Morning All,

Having analysed the ensembles over the last few weeks it’s clear to see far too much faith is being placed in these.

Aside from the brief cool spell in December (failed easterly), the ensembles have continued to lead us up the garden path, myself included.

We all know they have a tendency to flip at short notice but I can’t recall a year whereby we have experienced such dramatic shifts on such a regular basis.

Whilst I appreciate many hold the ECM in higher regard than the GFS, the ECM and it’s ensembles have been equally woeful so far this winter.

This all raises the question, with such a chaotic atmosphere at present how can we make any confident forecast over 5 days ahead, we simply can’t.

I fully understand the despondancy shared by many, but if the last few weeks have taught us anything it’s very much that these models and their ensembles can and will change very quickly, and just maybe this will work in our favour for once.

I have a feeling this week will herald some big surprises across the model suites, expect some wild swings and some big dips on those ensembles around the 20th and beyond.

Winter is coming...keep the faith!

 

A

 

Edited January 7, 2019 by East801

[northwestsnow 25,394]

Just now, swfc said:

severe Siberian high post? winters a bust

I think thats been covered mate, he was referring to the forecasts of cold have not delivered so far ?

Of course we could see a cold spell before the end of Jan,Blues post above has an air of promise..

[dinger 95]

Morning. I don't post much but I thought it would be prudent to remind those that are a bit pessimistic of our chances of a severe spell of cold weather that winter 1947 did not start until January 23rd and lasted until the middle of March. Snow fell somewhere in the UK every day for 55 consecutive days.

After having read the brilliant post by 62-63 last night I am hopeful that something similar may be just around the corner.

Have a good one.