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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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I don't know much about what I'm about to say.. but i read a post 8 days or so ago regarding human input in the computer models on the 7th of January after the festive break .

The post said the models will show a colder outlook on the 7th.

How true this is i don't know. 

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4 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

November was remembered as cold for both the Eastern US & Europe.

I don't think that's true.

rcc_eude_eur_ttt_ano8_2018_11.png

Anyway, GEFS slightly better but it will be a long countdown to 20th. 

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37 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I don't know much about what I'm about to say.. but i read a post 8 days or so ago regarding human input in the computer models on the 7th of January after the festive break .

The post said the models will show a colder outlook on the 7th.

How true this is i don't know. 

It's all about initialization data and the GIGO, "garbage in-garbage out". When you put more accurate data into the weather model then you have better initialization but much slower requiring much more time and computing power. Pumping in more data though doesn't necessarily mean more accurate data and things can go really wrong. That said, it's possible the festive period the initialization data lacks some observation data because the people that provide it are on holidays. Still if we don't know anyone that is working there we can only make some logical assumptions. 

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6 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

I don't think that's true.

rcc_eude_eur_ttt_ano8_2018_11.png

Anyway, GEFS slightly better but it will be a long countdown to 20th. 

In this age of AGW, cold in the way I described it is more like smaller very cold risks contained in a 10-20 day period, rather than a whole month. Plus the +AAM impact would have been like Nov 20 - Dec 10, not the whole of November. Cold is also a relative term, not to the climatology set long ago, but to the current climate and landscape. All IMO.

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28 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

It's all about initialization data and the GIGO, "garbage in-garbage out". When you put more accurate data into the weather model then you have better initialization but much slower requiring much more time and computing power. Pumping in more data though doesn't necessarily mean more accurate data and things can go really wrong. That said, it's possible the festive period the initialization data lacks some observation data because the people that provide it are on holidays. Still if we don't know anyone that is working there we can only make some logical assumptions. 

Surely much of this information is remotely accessed from sensors etc.

I think we are a bit beyond a man with a clip board.

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24 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

In this age of AGW, cold in the way I described it is more like smaller very cold risks contained in a 10-20 day period, rather than a whole month. Plus the +AAM impact would have been like Nov 20 - Dec 10, not the whole of November. Cold is also a relative term, not to the climatology set long ago, but to the current climate and landscape. All IMO.

Think you are moving the goal posts a little there. November was not cold in Europe no matter the definition used.

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35 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

In this age of AGW, cold in the way I described it is more like smaller very cold risks contained in a 10-20 day period, rather than a whole month. Plus the +AAM impact would have been like Nov 20 - Dec 10, not the whole of November. Cold is also a relative term, not to the climatology set long ago, but to the current climate and landscape. All IMO.

So in other words you make up a definition to fit your statement ? Very 'alternative facts' Meant in the nicest way possible. 

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14 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Think you are moving the goal posts a little there. November was not cold in Europe no matter the definition used.

 

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

So in other words you make up a definition to fit your statement ? Very 'alternative facts' Meant in the nicest way possible. 

I am not shifting goal posts, I'm saying that several troughs which brought snowfall to parts of the UK, which doesn't happen very often, and they brought some cold. Perhaps it did average out to be warm, but my point is that November featured more "interesting" weather, than December.

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Enough in fi from the gfs and gefs to keep us more than interested. It will be fun to watch this unfold but I think it will get messy in here for a good few days yet??  oh for the 2nd chart??

0F32D43B-8F2F-49C2-A83D-E6CE60BD9E43.png

088705A6-CAA6-4D62-BD30-5194C7C69C80.png

Edited by That ECM
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5 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

 

I am not shifting goal posts, I'm saying that several troughs which brought snowfall to parts of the UK, which doesn't happen very often, and they brought some cold. Perhaps it did average out to be warm, but my point is that November featured more "interesting" weather, than December.

Snowfall? In Scotland but that is not unusual for November. Anyway, not going to argue the point anymore. 

 

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Ec tends towards that ‘flatter’ transition beyond day 10 that MWB mentioned yesterday evening having trawled through the eps members (it was evident in the mean too)

so I would caution against expectations that the 20th sees a sudden change to wintry nirvana ...... it rarely happens like that. a few days beyond I think if the higher heights are to establish. Good to see both the gfs and gfsp with a broken tpv by day 16 and troughing where we would expect to see it from the mean/anoms guidance ...........

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The misery of the British winter continues this morning with all main models at day 6 showing a warmer Atlantic flow pushing back in.. So much of the same , mostly dry and cloudy theme continues. Beyond 144t looks like turning a bit more mobile with colder incursions but not much sign of the Mid Atlantic high amplifying north by 240t Its just in the worse place for you guys. Maybe better prospects in the longer term? but must be testing your patience (cold lovers) it is mine and I do not live there !

C

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Edited by carinthian
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4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Snowfall? In Scotland but that is not unusual for November. Anyway, not going to argue the point anymore. 

 

To defend @Snowy Hibbo here, November and Into December saw sypnotic patterns that would deliver widespread snowfall had they occurred now ..... the continent way too warm as a left over from the summer/autumn  .... n America, without the seas to interfere with the flow saw wintry conditions  

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21 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

 

I am not shifting goal posts, I'm saying that several troughs which brought snowfall to parts of the UK, which doesn't happen very often, and they brought some cold. Perhaps it did average out to be warm, but my point is that November featured more "interesting" weather, than December.

Sorry mate. Just teasing. The ECM at day 10 actually looks OK hemispherically. Vortex not a happy chappy. 

ECH1-240 (7).gif

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10 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The misery of the British winter continues this morning with all main models at day 6 showing a warmer Atlantic flow pushing back in.. So much of the same , mostly dry and cloudy theme continues. Beyond 144t looks like turning a bit more mobile with colder incursions but not much sign of the Mid Atlantic high amplifying north by 240t Its just in the worse place for you guys. Maybe better prospects in the longer term? but must be testing your patience (cold lovers) it is mine and I do not live there !

C

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

There's a very strange mood in this forum this year, and it's not as if we've not had an amazing summer either, and last winter was good too.  We're 1/3 of the way through this winter, and what I think is that it feels very 'continental'. This has got to be a good thing, no raging zonality, so it's still good for me.

 

We'll get our turn, looking at all the evidence, I'd say around the 20th onwards we'll see a flip to something more 'white'.

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2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Sorry mate. Just teasing. The ECM at day 10 actually looks OK hemispherically. Vortex not a happy chappy. 

ECH1-240 (7).gif

But still too prominent off the NE coast of Canada perhaps?

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Really not surprised that the UKMO looks uninspiring this morning. If it's going to go down the same route, a la GFS, wouldn't expect an improvement from it's runs, until the end of this week/weekend.

Hopefully the ECM will start to smell the coffee too and it's output start to look more interesting, in a couple of days time.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

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