The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Catacol 13,927]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

EC says no to the UKMO..

Back to scratching around FI for positive signals 

Slowly beginning to lose confidence that this vile Atlantic profile is going to improve anytime soon..

sorry for sounding a bit deflated...

Don't be sorry - no getting away from the fact that NWP output for the next 10 days looks poor for snow....though it could be worse - we could have a raging +NAO with flooding and gales. Let's be careful what we wish for when slating this current winter!

On the plus side these moments of tedium and gloom in our UK winters is what sets us up for the elation of moments when it all turns to snow. It would be very dull if it snowed all the time...and this thread would be dead if we lived in Canada. So for every snow event to make an impact we probably need 5 let downs. That's how I read it as a Somerset resident anyway - didn't see a flake for many years before the Beast!

It's only January 6th. There's plenty of time, and let's not forget we have considerable ongoing stratospheric disruption. The forecast up at 10hpa is good - if we could just get a bit more downwelling to occur.

[Man With Beard 17,644]

ECM individual ensembles tonight - initially bad news, but then better news. Not fantastic for cold between D11 and D13 (only 10-20% of members with realistic potential for cold, let alone snow). But quick changes at D14/D15 (so 20th/21st January), with a sharp increase in the members showing heights building to the W, NW and N (maybe 40% of members), and a general downturn on troughing in the Atlantic.

[Allseasons-si 10,801]

Sorry for sounding a bit off topic but some people don't have the stamina in here sometimes,if you don't like what the charts are showing at the mo,take a break otherwise you will end up with a nervous disposition,seriously!!!

now some model  discussion...

the models will not latch on yet as to what's happening up above the trop so give it time for lag efects to take place,the SPV has just split so lets see what happens.

 

i like the look of this....a lot,arctic high setting up there,trough extension further into Scandi,AO staying neg so still looking good in a couple of weeks

again,thanks @Bring Back1962-63 for another super post

[East801 82]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Welcome to Netweather, East801!  Agree it is a difficult pattern for cold lovers, I'm  hopeful that things will look very different by about 25 Jan, 70% chance I reckon.  But no means certain. Here's hoping!

Hi Mike- many thanks...long time follower of NW but new to posting.

I am a lover of all things snow and cold...and check in hourly in the hope of good news on the model front.

It’s been an unusual winter so far, expectations have been high since November when the seasonal models were showing blocking projections around Greenland. GLOSEA set the pulses racing in Nov and Dec and as a result many including myself have naturally been expecting some consistent churn of eye candy charts, which up until now have largely remained in the realms of FI.

The SSW has created much excitement and anticipation, the results of which if any for our tiny island will play out in the next 2 weeks or so.

What those results are for us is anyone’s guess at the moment, none of us can confidently predict this with any degree of assurance.

Let’s just hope Mother Nature plays us the ultimate ace card and we can all enjoy the snowy results we all so richly deserve.

Patience is a virtue I’ve always been told....surely our time will come and we can all look back on the year that tested our resolve to the max but finally rewarded us with the ultimate prize.

A

 

 

Edited January 6, 2019 by East801

[blizzard81 5,657]

29 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM individual ensembles tonight - initially bad news, but then better news. Not fantastic for cold between D11 and D13 (only 10-20% of members with realistic potential for cold, let alone snow). But quick changes at D14/D15 (so 20th/21st January), with a sharp increase in the members showing heights building to the W, NW and N (maybe 40% of members), and a general downturn on troughing in the Atlantic.

Yep. Just looked at debilt extended and looks promising. Much better than this morning's. Been here before though. 

[CreweCold 20,695]

27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Sorry for sounding a bit off topic but some people don't have the stamina in here sometimes,if you don't like what the charts are showing at the mo,take a break otherwise you will end up with a nervous disposition,seriously!!!

Can clearly see why mean heights are trapped over/ to the SW of us on that 3D plot. It's the Canadian vortex doing the damage.

Edited January 6, 2019 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard 19,848]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Can clearly see why mean heights are trapped over/ to the SW of us on that 3D plot. It's the Canadian vortex doing the damage.

Here she comes though on the 18z.

[Devonshire 467]

7 hours ago, jules216 said:

Luckily we in Slovakia have at least had intermittent cold snaps which at least gave some credence to my musing about potentially cold Europe this winter.

Hang on - your avatar says you are in Co. Wicklow!!!

[nick sussex 54,623]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Can clearly see why mean heights are trapped over/ to the SW of us on that 3D plot. It's the Canadian vortex doing the damage.

If I remember rightly quite a few years ago we had a SSW which left a lobe in ne Canada . And that flattened the downstream pattern . It’s amazing a meteor could hit the planet and the as I call it the PV lobe of death would still be limpeted to ne Canada!

The biggest problem besides that in recent years has been getting a negative NAO.  We have seen quite a few negative AOs but trying to go that  further step has been like pulling teeth .

Edited January 6, 2019 by nick sussex

[Day_10 66]

4 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

to be honest - waiting for this is more frustrating than waiting or the brutal winter to land!!!

Thats because we live in a world where we are becoming trained to expect instant response.  Likes, clicks, instant feed.

I haven’t generally got much of a clue, I just love ice cold weather, snow, harsh frosts etc.

what I do know is that the globe and processes involved in it are larger and more complex than most of our abilities’ to comprehend.

it’s therefore highly likely that changes in any weather pattern are usually in the order of  weeks rather than minutes or hours.

 

[bluearmy 37,298]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If I remember rightly quite a few years ago we had a SSW which left a lobe in ne Canada . And that flattened the downstream pattern . It’s amazing a meteor could hit the planet and the as I call it the PV lobe of death would still be limpeted to ne Canada!

That was after the tpv was blown apart with the chunks settling in various places ....... we got v unfortunate there with that chunk prevent8ng the severe cold in e Europe being able to advert as far as the uk for more than one brief spell bringing one snowfall 

anyway, the gfs op a little more compact on the tpv as it approaches low res 

[Johnp 2,575]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here she comes though on the 18z.

Here comes what?

[blizzard81 5,657]

Just now, Johnp said:

Here comes what?

Mmmm! Was thinking the same. 

[nick sussex 54,623]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That was after the tpv was blown apart with the chunks settling in various places ....... we got v unfortunate there with that chunk prevent8ng the severe cold in e Europe being able to advert as far as the uk for more than one brief spell bringing one snowfall 

anyway, the gfs op a little more compact on the tpv as it approaches low res 

You have a great memory ! I remember now , we had some snow and were expecting more then a little chunk of that PV set up shop in you know where !

[Weathizard 3,551]

mazing how consistent the models are when they are churning out dirge isn’t it. 

This is just what I wanted for Christmas.  

[weirpig 8,143]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Mmmm! Was thinking the same. 

i think he was talking about the PV  latching on to NE Canada.  However  the PV on this run as moved slightly away.

[Allseasons-si 10,801]

Strong trop pv to our NW!!!

look what could happen

[Bartlett High 327]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Strong trop pv to our NW!!!

look what could happen

But probably won't.

[karlos1983 21,702]

Well at least it won’t be boring   

[weirpig 8,143]

264   start of the demise of the PV?.   

 

[feb1991blizzard 19,848]

8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Here comes what?

Patience - i will tell you in a minute.

[CreweCold 20,695]

Synoptic garbage at this point- trop PV residing west of Greenland with no discernible pressure pattern to match- just open isobars of nothing...

[karlos1983 21,702]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Patience - i will tell you in a minute.

Lol  

[Allseasons-si 10,801]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Well at least it won’t be boring   

Likewise

lets get this stagnent pattern shifted out of the way and a pattern reset,BTW didn't the Meto text say some unsettled windy weather then colder later,i will take that.

[ICE COLD 7,117]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Patience - i will tell you in a minute.

You mean this ?