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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Welcome to Netweather, East801!  Agree it is a difficult pattern for cold lovers, I'm  hopeful that things will look very different by about 25 Jan, 70% chance I reckon.  But no means certain. Here's hoping!

Hi Mike- many thanks...long time follower of NW but new to posting.

I am a lover of all things snow and cold...and check in hourly in the hope of good news on the model front.

It’s been an unusual winter so far, expectations have been high since November when the seasonal models were showing blocking projections around Greenland. GLOSEA set the pulses racing in Nov and Dec and as a result many including myself have naturally been expecting some consistent churn of eye candy charts, which up until now have largely remained in the realms of FI.

The SSW has created much excitement and anticipation, the results of which if any for our tiny island will play out in the next 2 weeks or so.

What those results are for us is anyone’s guess at the moment, none of us can confidently predict this with any degree of assurance.

Let’s just hope Mother Nature plays us the ultimate ace card and we can all enjoy the snowy results we all so richly deserve.

Patience is a virtue I’ve always been told....surely our time will come and we can all look back on the year that tested our resolve to the max but finally rewarded us with the ultimate prize.

A

 

 

Edited by East801
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29 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM individual ensembles tonight - initially bad news, but then better news. Not fantastic for cold between D11 and D13 (only 10-20% of members with realistic potential for cold, let alone snow). But quick changes at D14/D15 (so 20th/21st January), with a sharp increase in the members showing heights building to the W, NW and N (maybe 40% of members), and a general downturn on troughing in the Atlantic.

Yep. Just looked at debilt extended and looks promising. Much better than this morning's. Been here before though. 

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27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Sorry for sounding a bit off topic but some people don't have the stamina in here sometimes,if you don't like what the charts are showing at the mo,take a break otherwise you will end up with a nervous disposition,seriously!!!

Can clearly see why mean heights are trapped over/ to the SW of us on that 3D plot. It's the Canadian vortex doing the damage.

Edited by CreweCold

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8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Can clearly see why mean heights are trapped over/ to the SW of us on that 3D plot. It's the Canadian vortex doing the damage.

Here she comes though on the 18z.

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7 hours ago, jules216 said:

Luckily we in Slovakia have at least had intermittent cold snaps which at least gave some credence to my musing about potentially cold Europe this winter.

Hang on - your avatar says you are in Co. Wicklow!!!

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20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Can clearly see why mean heights are trapped over/ to the SW of us on that 3D plot. It's the Canadian vortex doing the damage.

If I remember rightly quite a few years ago we had a SSW which left a lobe in ne Canada . And that flattened the downstream pattern . It’s amazing a meteor could hit the planet and the as I call it the PV lobe of death would still be limpeted to ne Canada!

The biggest problem besides that in recent years has been getting a negative NAO.  We have seen quite a few negative AOs but trying to go that  further step has been like pulling teeth .

Edited by nick sussex
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4 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

to be honest - waiting for this is more frustrating than waiting or the brutal winter to land!!! 🙃

Thats because we live in a world where we are becoming trained to expect instant response.  Likes, clicks, instant feed.

I haven’t generally got much of a clue, I just love ice cold weather, snow, harsh frosts etc.

what I do know is that the globe and processes involved in it are larger and more complex than most of our abilities’ to comprehend.

it’s therefore highly likely that changes in any weather pattern are usually in the order of  weeks rather than minutes or hours.

 

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If I remember rightly quite a few years ago we had a SSW which left a lobe in ne Canada . And that flattened the downstream pattern . It’s amazing a meteor could hit the planet and the as I call it the PV lobe of death would still be limpeted to ne Canada!

That was after the tpv was blown apart with the chunks settling in various places ....... we got v unfortunate there with that chunk prevent8ng the severe cold in e Europe being able to advert as far as the uk for more than one brief spell bringing one snowfall 

anyway, the gfs op a little more compact on the tpv as it approaches low res 

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here she comes though on the 18z.

Here comes what?

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Just now, Johnp said:

Here comes what?

Mmmm! Was thinking the same. 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That was after the tpv was blown apart with the chunks settling in various places ....... we got v unfortunate there with that chunk prevent8ng the severe cold in e Europe being able to advert as far as the uk for more than one brief spell bringing one snowfall 

anyway, the gfs op a little more compact on the tpv as it approaches low res 

You have a great memory ! I remember now , we had some snow and were expecting more then a little chunk of that PV set up shop in you know where !

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mazing how consistent the models are when they are churning out dirge isn’t it. 

This is just what I wanted for Christmas. 💤 

AA620F51-62C6-4E61-88E7-AE3BBEDE3FAB.png

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

Mmmm! Was thinking the same. 

i think he was talking about the PV  latching on to NE Canada.  However  the PV on this run as moved slightly away.

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Strong trop pv to our NW!!!

look what could happen👍🙏😁

cfsnh-0-540.thumb.png.f83a1e55fd7a0aa7247fca9584a770ac.pngtempresult_jdo2.thumb.gif.832b591127106b1c052a3a4d44a993ed.gif

But probably won't.

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264   start of the demise of the PV?.   

 

gfsnh-0-264.png

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8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Here comes what?

Patience - i will tell you in a minute.

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Synoptic garbage at this point- trop PV residing west of Greenland with no discernible pressure pattern to match- just open isobars of nothing...

image.thumb.png.fcbc3da98243d1b70b7043688a058c3c.png

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Patience - i will tell you in a minute.

Lol 😆 

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Well at least it won’t be boring :ninja: 💨 

F73E4F73-2A02-4280-AF53-91464F03206A.thumb.png.b74b22538b4b91a711662d729e98f268.png

Likewise

lets get this stagnent pattern shifted out of the way and a pattern reset,BTW didn't the Meto text say some unsettled windy weather then colder later,i will take that.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Patience - i will tell you in a minute.

You mean this ?

E6F6B322-CA0F-479F-955B-3A2DE9C3A5E7.png

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