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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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7 hours ago, jules216 said:

Luckily we in Slovakia have at least had intermittent cold snaps which at least gave some credence to my musing about potentially cold Europe this winter.

Hang on - your avatar says you are in Co. Wicklow!!!

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Can clearly see why mean heights are trapped over/ to the SW of us on that 3D plot. It's the Canadian vortex doing the damage.

If I remember rightly quite a few years ago we had a SSW which left a lobe in ne Canada . And that flattened the downstream pattern . It’s amazing a meteor could hit the planet and the as I call it the PV lobe of death would still be limpeted to ne Canada!

The biggest problem besides that in recent years has been getting a negative NAO.  We have seen quite a few negative AOs but trying to go that  further step has been like pulling teeth .

Edited by nick sussex
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4 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

to be honest - waiting for this is more frustrating than waiting or the brutal winter to land!!! ?

Thats because we live in a world where we are becoming trained to expect instant response.  Likes, clicks, instant feed.

I haven’t generally got much of a clue, I just love ice cold weather, snow, harsh frosts etc.

what I do know is that the globe and processes involved in it are larger and more complex than most of our abilities’ to comprehend.

it’s therefore highly likely that changes in any weather pattern are usually in the order of  weeks rather than minutes or hours.

 

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If I remember rightly quite a few years ago we had a SSW which left a lobe in ne Canada . And that flattened the downstream pattern . It’s amazing a meteor could hit the planet and the as I call it the PV lobe of death would still be limpeted to ne Canada!

That was after the tpv was blown apart with the chunks settling in various places ....... we got v unfortunate there with that chunk prevent8ng the severe cold in e Europe being able to advert as far as the uk for more than one brief spell bringing one snowfall 

anyway, the gfs op a little more compact on the tpv as it approaches low res 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That was after the tpv was blown apart with the chunks settling in various places ....... we got v unfortunate there with that chunk prevent8ng the severe cold in e Europe being able to advert as far as the uk for more than one brief spell bringing one snowfall 

anyway, the gfs op a little more compact on the tpv as it approaches low res 

You have a great memory ! I remember now , we had some snow and were expecting more then a little chunk of that PV set up shop in you know where !

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

Mmmm! Was thinking the same. 

i think he was talking about the PV  latching on to NE Canada.  However  the PV on this run as moved slightly away.

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Well at least it won’t be boring :ninja: ? 

F73E4F73-2A02-4280-AF53-91464F03206A.thumb.png.b74b22538b4b91a711662d729e98f268.png

Likewise

lets get this stagnent pattern shifted out of the way and a pattern reset,BTW didn't the Meto text say some unsettled windy weather then colder later,i will take that.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Synoptic garbage at this point- trop PV residing west of Greenland with no discernible pressure pattern to match- just open isobars of nothing...

image.thumb.png.fcbc3da98243d1b70b7043688a058c3c.png

That’s what a very deeply cold airmass can do when independent from the main vortex.

Model guidance looks to be converging on 19th or 20th being ‘landing day’ for the first directly strat-forced changes outside the Arctic Ocean; sudden manifestation of wedges of high pressure at around 65-70 N.

The way the chain of troughs suddenly breaks down is very telling.

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15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Synoptic garbage at this point- trop PV residing west of Greenland with no discernible pressure pattern to match- just open isobars of nothing...

image.thumb.png.fcbc3da98243d1b70b7043688a058c3c.png

It’s the gateway to hell thats why ! 

I’d actually call anything in late GFS output garbage . The 12 hrs had a nice block this run ditches that and also has the main PV on a completely different side of the NH !

Its a complete waste of space . I really don’t know why they continue to bother running the GFS past day ten . 

Theres a reason they don’t put out verification stats for the GFS past day ten ! Or they have them and they’re under armed guard in the Pentagon! 

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