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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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What I would be interested to know, is how the EC46 performed for parts of Europe that are going into the freezer now back in December for week 4+.... if it’s accurate then I’ll be a little happier.. 

 

Edited by karlos1983
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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

Posted Images

5 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

1987....by way it's unfair you bait me with a Canadian location and talk about March?....Must be fantastic there?....you in Canada now?

Yup 30 years ago ? no I’m in Kent at the mo. But youre right Canada certainly delivers - I’ve seen snow every month of the year there. But there’s nothing like the chase of snow in the UK

Back to the models - as the 20th comes into closer timeframe it will be interesting  to see the changes to the cold set ups. February could certainly be an interesting month as it stands. 

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The ECM spreads and ensembles suggest the op has the pattern too far east and is too flat .

The spread also shows greater uncertainty with the low to the north of Iceland at day 3, this then continues as to where that low ends up and the positioning of the Scandi trough .

Edited by nick sussex
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2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Extended EPS still looks good for around 19th - 20th. Keep the faith. 

Can you shed any more light? Sliders, cold southerlies, warm northerlies, beast from the easterlies or snowy sw'erlies?

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

What I would be interested to know, is how the EC46 performed for parts of Europe that are going into the freezer now back in December for week 4+.... if it’s accurate then I’ll be a little happier.. 

 

IMO, and people will disagree, the ec46 is not much more use than any other ensemble based product at that range. If I was an independent forecaster, I would not pay for its services.

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

IMO, and people will disagree, the ec46 is not much more use than any other ensemble based product at that range. If I was an independent forecaster, I would not pay for its services.

Fair enough, but it performed really well for the 2018 March spell. But then again any signal from the East in March is liable to bring low temperatures to the uk against climatology norm. But still did very well weeks out

Edited by karlos1983
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14 minutes ago, East801 said:

Placing all our hopes on an SSW working to our advantage sums up the winter of 2018/19 thus far.

I have seen zero cross model consistency on any potential cold spell thus far, the odd positive operational quickly downgraded within 24 hrs.

The esembles have been equally frustrating, flipping regularly and offer very little positive consistency.

The fact we are analysing a GFS chart at 300+ hours illustrates just how desperate things are right now. You can almost guarantee a 300 hrs chart will almost certainly not verify and will look completely different by the next run.

Personally, I’m as surprised as many that we haven’t seen many nirvana charts with such positive background signals but hopefully that will change in the coming days.

The atmosphere is highly chaotic currently and this is evidently causing the models all sorts of issues, however in the next 7-10 days we really need to be seeing some dramatic changes across the models to restore the hopes of NW members but also to save winter 2018/19 from the long list of non- descript British winters. 

Remaining hopeful for now....

A

 

Welcome to Netweather, East801!  Agree it is a difficult pattern for cold lovers, I'm  hopeful that things will look very different by about 25 Jan, 70% chance I reckon.  But no means certain. Here's hoping!

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Prozac still in the packet 

just check the date think it said January 6th but coming on here you would think its march 6th and the sledges being put back into the loft shed or garage

mid month onwards has been the prediction for things to start changing according to the met office and some experienced weather forecasters

gfs ukm ecm all atm dont look great if you like snow in the next 8 days or so but just try to be patient

things  can and do develope pretty quickly as history of this forum proves

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

IMO, and people will disagree, the ec46 is not much more use than any other ensemble based product at that range. If I was an independent forecaster, I would not pay for its services.

 

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Fair enough, but it performed really well for the 2018 March spell. But then again any signal from the East in March is liable to bring low temperatures to the uk against climatology norm. But still did very well weeks out

I made a post earlier showing that the 46 had generally predicted the onset of cold post 20th. 

 

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6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry snow in March not for me slushy wet feet comes to mind snow in middle of winter lying on the ground yes please.

So where were you last March?, Snow fell between minus 3 or 4 making it the coldest March day on record, with dry powdery snow falling with high winds producing huge drifts of snow in some areas and pipe freezing weather.! Anyway , a major pattern change by the weekend  with the Atlantic gaining control, not initially good news for cold weather fans , but as I said a few days ago, its good news as this presses the reset button, and will allow the jet stream to move in a more favourable position for proper winter for Britain. The weather is a mystery and always will be, and an ancient saying spanning Centuries around here is " As the days grow longer ,the Cold gets stronger"!  Nothing as changed regarding the weather , what as changed is peoples perceptions and attitudes . Anyway ,just for laughs , the gfs  Jet stream at day 8 paints a slice of bread across the northern hemisphere , Hope its buttered on both sides....!!!!

bread.png

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3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

So where were you last March?, Snow fell between minus 3 or 4 making it the coldest March day on record, with dry powdery snow falling with high winds producing huge drifts of snow in some areas and pipe freezing weather.! Anyway , a major pattern change by the weekend  with the Atlantic gaining control, not initially good news for cold weather fans , but as I said a few days ago, its good news as this presses the reset button, and will allow the jet stream to move in a more favourable position for proper winter for Britain. The weather is a mystery and always will be, and an ancient saying spanning Centuries around here is " As the days grow longer ,the Cold gets stronger"!  Nothing as changed regarding the weather , what as changed is peoples perceptions and attitudes . Anyway ,just for laughs , the gfs  Jet stream at day 8 paints a slice of bread across the northern hemisphere , Hope its buttered on both sides....!!!!

bread.png

Tyrone mate dry and cold.

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM spreads and ensembles suggest the op has the pattern too far east and is too flat .

The spread also shows greater uncertainty with the low to the north of Iceland at day 3 , this then continues as to where that low ends up and the positioning of the Scandi   trough .

That North of Iceland to Scandi spread can be traced back through the 5 previous runs as well. Guess that has to be resolved very soon!

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

I made a post earlier showing that the 46 had generally predicted the onset of cold post 20th. 

 

My initial comment was about Europe though, not the UK. Europe that’s in the freezer now, was that signposted back in December ?

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We have been in a blocked pattern for most of last year, due to the ssw early last year, I don't quite think normal UK weather has resumed it's normal pattern, so this ssw will eventually deliver , as someone has said, the vortex had split with downwelling to lower levels, so I think we would have to be really unlucky to see proper winter arrive.

The ensembles have been like a roller coaster, although I have watched the weather models, I've had more interest in the ensembles, coz they are showing how unpredictable the models are being in the medium and as always long range. My 10 pence worth, lol 

Edited by dixonoid
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22 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Can you shed any more light? Sliders, cold southerlies, warm northerlies, beast from the easterlies or snowy sw'erlies?

As far as I know I can put these anomaly charts on here. 

No beast from the East but a northerly blast looks on the cards possibly. 

C88875CF-A3A9-4ACF-A35D-8816874091AD.png

CD5370C8-AD3B-450D-8068-9918232F378B.png

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Been watching the outputs the last couple of weeks and days , its all getting a little Grrr at the moment,  , whilst it is very frustrating for some including me it is also proving fascinating how people are interpreting all the outputs and the reactions from SSW . Thanks to all the regular contributors who stick it out through thick and thin . Let’s hope things take a favourable twist . 

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