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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cold air in place and a wedge just about beginning I reckon. Not to unhappy with that 

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Yeah but compared to a few days ago it’s absolutely ? 

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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So is the SSW causing a return to Atlantic conditions, or has the SSW been largely ineffective, or are the models just making it up as they go along and haven’t taken on board the SSW at all? It’s got to be one of the above surely.

Either way, if no cold spell has started by mid Jan, I think I’ll be looking forward to an early spring... or a property abroad to escape from the Brexshit pipe dream.

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42 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yep GFS is hero today, I’m sure ECM will catch up soon ?

Im not sure about that , Ive gone through the GEFS and they have backed off from what the 6z were showing .

12Z's not great I'm afraid 

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More good signs for coldies from the GEFS 12z mean / postage stamps longer term..there are suggestions of mid atlantic ridging and a scandi trough with winds from an arctic source at times which brings an increasing chance of snow..as I've said today and recently, I'm fed up of this benign anticyclonic gloom which has put winter to sleep so far..but it looks like waking up soon!!?❄️?

 

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2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

So is the SSW causing a return to Atlantic conditions, or has the SSW been largely ineffective, or are the models just making it up as they go along and haven’t taken on board the SSW at all? It’s got to be one of the above surely.

Either way, if no cold spell has started by mid Jan, I think I’ll be looking forward to an early spring... or a property abroad to escape from the Brexshit pipe dream.

Was just thinking that myself, could it be possible the models haven’t even been taking the ssw into account? If so there could well be a massive flip all of a sudden, straw clutching I no but u never no

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Hard to find much cheer for coldies in the models tonight, as evidenced by the downcast tone in so many of today's posts. As Ventrice pointed out earlier today, we're talking a different gravy to the SSW in Feb.

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Matt Hugo also quick to reference widespread surprise at lack of amplitude compared to predictions.

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Thank goodness we have the potential effects of an ongoing SSW to provide a sliver of hope for late Jan onwards. Might come to nothing, of course, but imagine the mood in here if we didn't even have that? So it seems forecasting the UK's weather is, ultimately, pretty straight forward...whatever you think might happen, or most want to happen, is almost certainly not going to occur in the way anybody expects! Models might be better than they were, but the glimmer of light they shine into the future remains dimmed by nature's dominant unpredictability. Another reason to hope we might see some of the white stuff before winter's done with us, perhaps.

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24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

An unsettled spell was always on the cards....if things don’t improve after that, then the boat may have been missed, and this SSW may go into the non downwelling pile. Sit back and wait for a few days more I’m afraid folks.

The SSW has downwelled, the problem is that the split is orientated from Canada through Siberia.

Similar to Jan 14 in which we developed a -AO, got the jet pushed south, the US eventually got the benefit but Autumn carried on for the UK.

We must wait for the next pattern change to shift the pattern to a better angle unfortunately.

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1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Was just thinking that myself, could it be possible the models haven’t even been taking the ssw into account? If so there could well be a massive flip all of a sudden, straw clutching I no but u never no

I’m genuinely interested to know. Despite the best part of ten years reading this thread (not constantly obviously lol) I’ve still so much to learn about SSWs and how they are or aren’t represented by the models.

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1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Was just thinking that myself, could it be possible the models haven’t even been taking the ssw into account? If so there could well be a massive flip all of a sudden, straw clutching I no but u never no

It has already been mentioned - the split and developing high over the pole has pushed the PV over ourside of the hemisphere. 

Things have fallen pretty bad for us so far. 

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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It has already been mentioned - the split and developing high over the pole has pushed the PV over ourside of the hemisphere. 

Things have fallen pretty bad for us so far. 

The problem is the split into three rather than two. It has spread the energy out on our side of the hemisphere whereas a simple split into two would have been easier to deal with because there'd  be a gap either over Scandinavia or eastern Canada instead of having a lobe over both.

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8 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The SSW has downwelled, the problem is that the split is orientated from Canada through Siberia.

Similar to Jan 14 in which we developed a -AO, got the jet pushed south, the US eventually got the benefit but Autumn carried on for the UK.

We must wait for the next pattern change to shift the pattern to a better angle unfortunately.

Hi.why is late Jan esp the 20th being touted if the split has taken place???, Tia

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Just now, summer blizzard said:

The problem is the split into three rather than two. It has spread the energy out on our side of the hemisphere whereas a simple split into two would have been easier to deal with because there'd  be a gap either over Scandinavia or eastern Canada instead of having a lobe over both.

Yes - the weather gods have once again deficated on us from a great height (the stratosphere in this case).

I do feel we will get a little more joy towards the end of the month. Nothing is ever static and we could get a small window during the next few months. 

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Just now, booferking said:

Sorry snow in March not for me slushy wet feet comes to mind snow in middle of winter lying on the ground yes please.

March 2005. We had 8 inches here in the SE. Certainly wasn’t slushy. Don’t write off March. 

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Back to the D10 ECM. There may well be a mass of purple but at the end of the day, 500mb is only one layer, the SPV above has been under attack for a while. And, in my view, could allow the TPV to open up much more readily that current FI charts are showing later in the month. The nosing down of heights from the pole is something I am looking out for around that time.

Whilst my thoughts will, quite understandably, be perceived by most as clutching at straws, I hope as well as trying to spot the very first signs of change proper (yes, agreed, in the face of some pretty shocking output currently!).

So whilst the first cold ship may've already sailed (following the unfavourable alignment of vortex lobes) IMO the next cold ship leaves mid month (around the 19th). Let's hope things start changing in our favour soon and we are all on board that one.

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Placing all our hopes on an SSW working to our advantage sums up the winter of 2018/19 thus far.

I have seen zero cross model consistency on any potential cold spell thus far, the odd positive operational quickly downgraded within 24 hrs.

The esembles have been equally frustrating, flipping regularly and offer very little positive consistency.

The fact we are analysing a GFS chart at 300+ hours illustrates just how desperate things are right now. You can almost guarantee a 300 hrs chart will almost certainly not verify and will look completely different by the next run.

Personally, I’m as surprised as many that we haven’t seen many nirvana charts with such positive background signals but hopefully that will change in the coming days.

The atmosphere is highly chaotic currently and this is evidently causing the models all sorts of issues, however in the next 7-10 days we really need to be seeing some dramatic changes across the models to restore the hopes of NW members but also to save winter 2018/19 from the long list of non- descript British winters. 

Remaining hopeful for now....

A

 

Edited by East801
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1 minute ago, East801 said:

Placing all our hopes on an SSW working to our advantage sums up the winter of 2018/19 thus far.

I have seen zero cross model consistency on any protected cold spell thus far, the odd positive operational quickly downgraded within 24 hrs.

The esembles have been equally frustrating, flipping regularly and offer very little positive consistency.

The fact we are analysing a GFS chart at 300+ hours illustrates just how desperate things are right now. You can almost guarantee a 300 hrs chart will almost certainly not verify and will look completely different by the next run.

Personally, I’m as surprised as many that we haven’t seen many nirvana charts with such positive background signals but hopefully that will change in the coming days.

The atmosphere is highly chaotic currently and this is evidently causing the models all sorts of issues, however in the next 7-10 days we really need to be seeing some dramatic changes across the models to restore the hopes of NW members but also to save winter 2018/19 from the long list of non- descript British winters. 

Remaining hopeful for now....

A

 

Agreed 

And again to be boring, I posted weeks ago now that my concern is the lack of eye candy from the output , I was reminded they never come to fruition , but you need to see eye candy in the output if only for the idea the charts are picking up on something , been very little if we are being honest 

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1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

 

March is a Spring month. Forget 2013...it can get from snow to 18 degrees very quickly with strengthening Sun...March is a waste of time for longevity snow, even end of Feb I'm not keen on as BFTE tend to disappear quickly.....Give me late Dec into early Jan any day...shame it never happens these days.

Now your talking 25th Dec 1995 below 2009 2010 also oh baby they were the days pure powder middle of winter no melt?.. 

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