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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    19 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Sometime between now and March is the official word I believe

    When in read this I thought it was referering to the latest update on when a cold spell will finally occur  ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    On the 0z ECM op, there is only 2mm of precipitation forecast and the eps mean has less than 10mm forecast in London right out to D16

    OK, I'll happily grant you two weeks of PRECIPITATION nailed on. The lack of any over the UK is notable. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    When in read this I thought it was referering to the latest update on when a cold spell will finally occur  ?

    LOL wouldn’t surprise me ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Oh I’m paying attention. So are you suggesting that the GFS op is like an old car? And that it’s processing power is being decreased as it approaches retirement? It’s no better or worse now than at any time during its existence.

    From what I understood FV3 is a more efficient model requiring less computational power, not necessarily always better. After this resolution can be increased more easily etc

    Edited by ArHu3
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    OK, I'll happily grant you two weeks of PRECIPITATION nailed on. The lack of any over the UK is notable. 

    Thats what i have said, hardly any is nailed on, 2 weeks of precipitation is nailed not on!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

    From what I understood FV3 is a more efficient model requiring less computational power, not necessarily always better. After this resolution can be increased more easily etc

     

    2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

    From what I understood FV3 is a more efficient model requiring less computational power, not necessarily always better. After this resolution can be increased more easily etc

    It's much more than just that. Here is a brief intro. https://www.weather.gov/news/fv3

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
    43 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    It’s a watery weak easterly that won’t do much. Let’s get the real deal please!

    Usually we get a good Easterly showing only to find it gets watered down or vanishes altogether as we get closer so maybe the opposite will happen and it will upgrade in the days ahead and turn out to be a massive big stonking one ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM mean at T144 and T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.67ea137f52e9e8d4e214d38c776e073b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.902923c744c1db2c300ad12b6167d76f.jpg

    So strong signal for amplification at T144, but looks like most members follow the op for a topple thereafter.  Bonus at T 240, the 1030 at the pole (significant on a mean at T240) still there, -AO suggested again.  But will it benefit the UK?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Thats what i have said, hardly any is nailed on, 2 weeks of precipitation is nailed not on!!

    Don't worry I know what you meant now. And fair point too. 

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    now i may be talking absolute garbage but with the forecast PV split tomorrow is this not going to increase model confusion until they settle on where the bits of vortex settle??

     

    fromey

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Going by this update (as well as from the latest model-output) I can see why so many folks are 'untruthing' about the idea that any cold is being repeatedly put back:

    UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:

    The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

    The only uncertainty I can see relates to the timing??

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanway, Colchester
  • Location: Stanway, Colchester

    May explain the flip flopping in the models right now. Polar Vortex is in the process of splitting but is yet to split...

    Screenshot 2019-01-02 at 20.11.18.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    I must confess today that from watching the model output, I'm experiencing a wobble.

    I had a wobble mid December, and the next day the models were all a massive upgrade - good feelings all round in this thread, although no one got any actual cold from it, but that's just detail!   ?

    The concern is not this:  ?

    It is more that my uncertainty seems to have increased significantly, due to the following:

    • The nature of the effect of the SSW, this looks complicated to me, but the mood in the strat thread seems more negative today.
    • Change in MO forecast, although it is possible to read these many ways!
    • Signal for UK reducing on model output, yes FV3 6z classic, but other output less good, not irrecoverable, and the GEFS 12z suite poor compared to what we were seeing yesterday.

    So we proceed with a bit more apprehension but with the odds still in favour of a decent cold spell in the second half of winter.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge

    FI is currently 7th Jan. thereafter is literally a guess, at least for this small island and it’s snow shield. SSW or not things changed last March. 

    D4094242-FF27-451B-868E-6E2A3CA9DBC9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    11 minutes ago, Essexfish said:

    May explain the flip flopping in the models right now. Polar Vortex is in the process of splitting but is yet to split...

    Screenshot 2019-01-02 at 20.11.18.png

    All these models top out very high now, so i cant see why it wouldn't model a split high up in the atmosphere (less chaotic) well at such short range.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    6 minutes ago, DCee said:

    FI is currently 7th Jan. thereafter is literally a guess, at least for this small island and it’s snow shield. SSW or not things changed last March. 

    D4094242-FF27-451B-868E-6E2A3CA9DBC9.png

    not the latest though are they? 12Z is latest

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    All these models top out very high now, so i cant see why it wouldn't model a split high up in the atmosphere (less chaotic) well at such short range.

    It did all this wobbling back in February last year so it's no surprise that it will happen again this year.

    Edited by Leon1
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    All these models top out very high now, so i cant see why it wouldn't model a split high up in the atmosphere (less chaotic) well at such short range.

    Agreed. Also I wouldn’t take much notice of that very amateur account. I unfollowed after they were calling for a cold spell mid December (almost daily ) from the end of November  

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    Posted
  • Location: Stanway, Colchester
  • Location: Stanway, Colchester
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    All these models top out very high now, so i cant see why it wouldn't model a split high up in the atmosphere (less chaotic) well at such short range.

    I can see your point but can also remember many occasions when models have struggled much beyond day 4.

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Agreed. Also I wouldn’t take much notice of that very amateur account. I unfollowed after they were calling for a cold spell mid December (almost daily ) from the end of November  

    Like most in this forum were doing as well? 

    This cold spell is about 5 weeks late haha.

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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