Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

The UKMO has the shortwave of hope as it shall be named ! Only commenting on this small chance because there’s not much going on within ten days that raises much interest .

There are some key differences between the GFS and UKMO both upstream and further east .

The latter has the Russian high building further west this tries to stop the Scandi troughing from edging further east . We want that to be locked in . Upstream the UKMO has that shortwave which ejects se . With a bit more amplitude upstream we might develop a little wedge of high pressure to the nw .

The GFS is flatter with too much energy spilling east and makes less of the Russian high .

Because of the time lag effect of the MJO phase 6 can we squeeze out a bit more amplitude. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

Posted Images

7 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Gfs comes good from T 300 which is about the time we are hoping the reversal will kick in ,its still  looks good to me

GEFS stick with the Op really, plenty of interest in FI again but non bring the split earlier than the 20th which I hoped for!!

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

GFSp 192. Trough alignment is good, we just need the next Atlantic low to give some amplitude instead of racing across the Atlantic and phasing with the trough

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Mucka said:

 

GFSp 192. Trough alignment is good, we just need the next Atlantic low to give some amplitude instead of racing across the Atlantic and phasing with the trough

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

Good post Mucka.. i was looking at that chart you posted it would be great chart viewing if that low sank a little further south. 

Yesterday's 12z showed that.

Looking forward to the 18z at T240 tbh.

Its skirt or miniskirt for me atm.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

T384 hrs sorry guys and gals  best i can offer.

Im no expert.  Mrs sorepaw says  different ..ummm moving on 

 

Tbh not sure where this January is going. 

Maybe this winter is going to be less cold than previous winters.

24 hrs ago we had 4 runs of a colder outlook at T240 hrs..

There's been lots of heated posts lately even by some mods .

 

19012212_0612.gif

Nope. Same. Not sure where this January is going but becoming less hopeful by the day of any significant cold. 

Going into self-imposed model watching exile for a few days and then see where we are. Need to keep one's sanity as when all is said and done. It is only the weather! 

Link to post
Share on other sites

GEFS look a bit poor in graph form, but the general synopsis still ok, in fact you can see a sharp downward trend right at the very last half a day, if they went out further, there would be some stormers in there

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

GFSp 192. Trough alignment is good, we just need the next Atlantic low to give some amplitude instead of racing across the Atlantic and phasing with the trough

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

What we'd really like to see is the slightly higher heights over the Arctic rotate by ninety degrees! The problem with both ECM this morning and this run is that the bulk of the PV seems to be pushed to our North. Granted, it gives a more NW to SE flow which is better than SW, but it would be much better to see the more of the PV further east.

Anyway, it's all still a fair distance away, so it can and will change.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Reading some interesting comments from NCEP re teleconnections .

The better fit for those should be some cooler temps in the eastern USA this would tend to favour more amplitude upstream than is currently shown .

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well they are underwhelming.... not had chance to look at individual members, but I’ll take your word for it Feb.

A228E939-B2CE-4250-A988-B6716AA57A83.thumb.gif.b26f43acdc54e39b3159af356507bb28.gif

I’m feeling my first wobble coming ?send help

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS look a bit poor in graph form, but the general synopsis still ok, in fact you can see a sharp downward trend right at the very last half a day, if they went out further, there would be some stormers in there

Good post feb as always. It would be nice to see them lows a little further south  on the 18z .

It was showing that on yesterday's 06z to 18z .

Wouldn't be surprised to see a return on the 18z or mornings 00z .

Happy posting feb i think i might give it 24 hrs before i come on here .

Im trying to read  good likeminded posts.?

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, karlos1983 said:

Well they are underwhelming.... not has chance to look at individual members, but I’ll take your word for it Feb.

A228E939-B2CE-4250-A988-B6716AA57A83.thumb.gif.b26f43acdc54e39b3159af356507bb28.gif

mom feeling my first wobble coming ?send help

This is a big step backwards from this model - you watch, a great day 10 on the ECM ?

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’d say it’s been underway for a while!

57A05AB1-A951-40E7-9C91-DCBB458F992A.thumb.png.afb6f072acef93ef679f46a26ade6a6a.png

Link if you want to keep tabs ?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-34.22,66.12,303/loc=0.344,89.895

Many thanks, I thought that  as well from a tweet back at the beginning of January from Dr Amy Butler.

Edited by fromey
Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst many including myself are hoping for a snowy spell in the near future it’s clear to see we are going backwards here with any HLB chances.

The background signals have for sometime looked positive but over the last few days we have taken a significant step backwards from where we need to be.

Still remaining hopeful the current SSW works in our favour, if not we could be reflecting on a winter that promised so much but always reserved in the realms of FI charts. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well they are underwhelming.... not had chance to look at individual members, but I’ll take your word for it Feb.

 

I’m feeling my first wobble coming ?send help

You don't have to, here is the 384 but this trough slowly dropping starts a few frames before with a mean ridge in the atlantic.

image.thumb.png.134db35c4c47509c94c96f88d76aedad.png

One concern is such a strong Canadian lobe at such range when we should be seeing less, however, i don't think we were ever talking about full on Greenland highs in that timeframe like this.

image.thumb.png.66cbe7f27d8640ed7325fb3fd6bc92e1.png

We are talking wedges initially and it might take a few goes, it could be that the SSW downwelling does't go all the way but then after a couple of goes, a ridge  trop up does the rest and finishes the job.

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

GFS 12z gets the above average heights toward Greenland and colder air moving south across the UK at the end of the run so the next step would be / is for this to keep being shown and gradually getting nearer within 200h , 100h etc and also for those above average heights to get stronger and slightly better positioned which I believe have a good chance of happening within the next few weeks

 gfsnh-12-384.thumb.png.be7e4a7541c910c7222973ae7d91b0fc.png gfsnh-3-384.thumb.png.6fd61fa15ad33c05bf79edd6634953ee.png 

some from the 0z run of the ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS (note the blocking / above average heights signal over Greenland / to our north) (couldn't find a north hemisphere view)

gens-4-3-312.thumb.png.49315f2b16e87f95df1347b201d45814.pnggens-4-1-348.thumb.png.e6c9d6dc797f53b3f026f426e7f39348.pnggens-12-3-384.thumb.png.99a734ccb464a96098a3ddcd3001fb4a.pnggens-19-3-384.thumb.png.5bf4e0f0672cd3478a49998f25d92731.png 

now to see what the 12z GEFS show

This is backed up by the jet,puts us on the cold side at last.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

FV3 seems stuck on T204, but worth a comparison with GFS at same time, FV3 first

image.thumb.jpg.55a67dc724b9f2e01ee5c19561a88182.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.12e95af40869466b23f0a64f8025f790.jpg

Dogs breakfast over the pole on both, until the models come to terms with the Arctic high, which in terms is coming to terms with the SSW, model output at even this 8 day range can probably be taken with a barrel of salt.  

I've not really enjoyed reading the thread today to be honest...

Happier and snowier days to come, but not for a week or two I suggest.

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, just hope it can be as dry as possible, seen worse models

For me I’d rather some wind and rain than this dull boring stuff, it all needs a good shake tbh that’s what I think anyway

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, just hope it can be as dry as possible, seen worse models

Good point, while we are waiting for the Siberian output/outlook to hit ours shores. We should all enjoy the dry weather as It could be full on Zonal and endless wind and rain that we have  

Edited by Dancerwithwings
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...