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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

Posted Images

Hmmm, it is a signal all right, but right at the end of the model range, GFS 12z T372

image.thumb.jpg.72ea174a64503b122bc0a6679d673a76.jpg

Just the painstaking watch to see if it makes it forward to the reliable, but it's on the timescale now expected!

All three GFS runs have had something noteworthy of cold at the very end of the run, and that is the timescale the MO are forecasting.  For now, it's one to watch, and watch closely...

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Hmmm, it is a signal all right, but right at the end of the model range, GFS 12z T372

image.thumb.jpg.72ea174a64503b122bc0a6679d673a76.jpg

Just the painstaking watch to see if it makes it forward to the reliable, but it's on the timescale now expected!

I’m confident we’ll have atlesst 5 ENS showing this type set up by the 18th in the ENS - over egging the PV here I think. I’ll be red faced in about 30 mins no doubt.

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2 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

I'm afraid that is the case on most of these forums, including the echo chamber that is referred to as "the other side."

Remember, some of the "experts" have been ramping up cold since November, predicting - sorry assuring upgrades in the model output/saying they'll all fall into line etc but 2 months on and...well, look at the last month's CET and look out your window...

Eventually, people will realise that even the most enthusiastic amateurs are still just that - amateurs. Some commentators talk about nothing but potential and cold snowy charts, and are praised for events that haven't even happened (and were highly unlikely to reading the charts).  Remember - even a broken clock is right twice a day. 

So while I enjoy the enthusiasm, we have to remember to be realistic all the same and also - back yourself in interpreting the models! You've got to eventually ask yourself, if the "experts" are so knowledgeable then why are they wrong so often? 

Just saying. 

 

I've been reading this forum for years and you soon learn who to take notice of and who to put on ignore. I think before people start criticising the "experts" they should perhaps examine their own interpretation of what they are saying. 

There are a number of very knowledgeable posters on here that are brave enough to make predictions based on their interpretations of the background signals and teleconnections. The signal for a possible turn to cold weather has been highlighted by many of these posters to commence around the middle of Jan. Over the course of the past month I think that date has been put back by around a week or two, so from about the 5th of Jan to the 19th. The reasons for this delay have been explained in large part to the uncertainties around timing of any downwelling of the SSW. How on earth is anyone meant to be able to predict that with precision?

For a long time the models were showing endless HP over us in FI, we are now at the stage where the transition to a possible cold pattern is showing up. Everything still looks on course for a change but it doesn't look likely until the last third of the month. 

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1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I agree. It sums up the model output today when some big up that day 6 ukmo chart. The bar is being set lower and lower. We need some Monday morning upgrades.

I think we are all getting a bit desperate now, clutch enough straws myself.

Barring a huge turn around it looks as though we are going to have to have to grin and bear some good old fashioned British Winter weather - wet and windy.

January has been more blocked than usual, just the blocking has been in the wrong place for us unfortunately and never really threatened to get into the higher latitudes.

December actually repeatedly attempted to build an Atlantic ridge but the Atlantic continually overran the pattern which is fairly typical.

Any real cold and snow chances for low lying England is now seemingly 10 days+ away in line with MetO revised expectations.

It is what it is and really this would be an ideal time to take a few days away from the output - but watching the charts come out and hoping for a cold signal is an odd addiction.

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hmmm, it is a signal all right, but right at the end of the model range, GFS 12z T372

image.thumb.jpg.72ea174a64503b122bc0a6679d673a76.jpg

Just the painstaking watch to see if it makes it forward to the reliable, but it's on the timescale now expected!

Agreed, what’s on offer is zzZZ and Tim Bland mentioned maybe a backward step.....But I do believe though that atm it’s a three step back and soon it’ll be a giant leap forward.

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13 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Is it me or is there a lot of purple on there and what looks like quite an organised pv, it was only a few days ago it was looking a lot more blocked and patchy than this.

mind you I’m a complete amateur so may be completely wrong

19ACDAE8-9D99-4EC8-894B-EC742F592AF7.png

No, you are right. Just had a first look at ECM ensembles after a day away, and prospects for blocking to the NW not quite as good as they were a couple of days back (was never nailed on). No need to panic just yet, but it's always wise to remember that, in the UK, there's always a chance it just may not happen. 

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The low by Iceland (the one that, by this time tomorrow, probably won't even be there!) could be important: if there's enough resilience in the Arctic-Greenie HP) the low might just be forced SE into mainland Europe, dragging a 1991-like snow-laden Continental blast, in behind it??? 

image.thumb.png.897bb6f8f556fa4b61d477ccb0ba30dd.png

Hope springs eternal! And the moon is made of cheese!:drunk-emoji:

Edited by Ed Stone
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24 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I agree. It sums up the model output today when some big up that day 6 ukmo chart. The bar is being set lower and lower. We need some Monday morning upgrades.

fat chance of a 0z miracle. Every mornings a bad un

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GFS 12z gets the above average heights toward Greenland and colder air moving south across the UK at the end of the run so the next step would be / is for this to keep being shown and gradually getting nearer within 200h , 100h etc and also for those above average heights to get stronger and slightly better positioned which I believe have a good chance of happening within the next few weeks

 gfsnh-12-384.thumb.png.be7e4a7541c910c7222973ae7d91b0fc.png gfsnh-3-384.thumb.png.6fd61fa15ad33c05bf79edd6634953ee.png 

some from the 0z run of the ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS (note the blocking / above average heights signal over Greenland / to our north) (couldn't find a north hemisphere view)

gens-4-3-312.thumb.png.49315f2b16e87f95df1347b201d45814.pnggens-4-1-348.thumb.png.e6c9d6dc797f53b3f026f426e7f39348.pnggens-12-3-384.thumb.png.99a734ccb464a96098a3ddcd3001fb4a.pnggens-19-3-384.thumb.png.5bf4e0f0672cd3478a49998f25d92731.png 

now to see what the 12z GEFS show

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

If the area of low pressure west of Greenland at the 90hr can do one up the west coast it may be game on!!! Wishfull thinking but who knows?

If that happens we’ll be freezing our Barnets off ??

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T384 hrs sorry guys and gals  best i can offer.

Im no expert.  Mrs sorepaw says  different ..ummm moving on 

 

Tbh not sure where this January is going. 

Maybe this winter is going to be less cold than previous winters.

24 hrs ago we had 4 runs of a colder outlook at T240 hrs..

 

 

19012212_0612.gif

Edited by phil nw.
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2 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Gfs comes good from T 300 which is about the time we are hoping the reversal will kick in ,its still  looks good to me

Yes, continuing the trend of a change coming from around the 18th onwards.

I'm not sure what people are expecting - we ain't gonna see polar bear charts within reliable atm.

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