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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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Just to show that am not just posting about no cold being shown on the models i will defo admit the latest ukmo 12z has got my eye brow raised!!looks very interesting at t144 hours but on the other hand gfs looks competely different and much flatter!!

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Maybe nae snaw, but an odd -7C nighttime minimum  wouldnae come as a surprise?

image.thumb.png.b75cd66f0db5998aab74aa65a16ba3f2.png

 

 

It would have to be a clear high and as we can see from the current high, it is far from guaranteed.

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All looks a bit too east....again. The displaced PV again too far east on the runs.  Deep cold to our east...will this blinking HP ever do one....it is an extreme in itself....its stubborness is somewhat interesting to watch.  Ah well nice to see snow at beach level in Greece etc.

 

 BFTP

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Here we go, time for a wedge please! Let’s see what manifests as we head to the low res  ?

206171CD-2229-4518-A1E1-4B7EFDDBEAB3.thumb.png.5447036aa1c72429471736fd6991e76b.png

PV seems stronger this run so not sure how quick any wedge would break through, time will tell I guess - let’s see if we get 3 runs in a row similar in FI

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9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

PV seems stronger this run so not sure how quick any wedge would break through, time will tell I guess - let’s see if we get 3 runs in a row similar in FI

Very close ?

8641C983-C63A-496A-AE51-53878C2D1307.thumb.png.482265b087c91e469d0a9d484f65b16f.png

no cigar

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Nice looking ukmo this evening could lead to a few possibilities heading forward. Be nice to see where the ecm heads at 168 later on. As ever gonna ignore the gfs as it’s absolutely cannon fodder or so we are told....

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Very close ?

8641C983-C63A-496A-AE51-53878C2D1307.thumb.png.482265b087c91e469d0a9d484f65b16f.png

no cigar

Friday 18th was the last runs change, few days left to attempt some magic on the vortex - not looking good this time round!!

Also we’ve had around 5 GEFS going cold around the 14th , see how that goes. An up tick in those and I’ll ignore the Op for now!! 

Edited by Ali1977
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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we headed into sliderland here? Or is that anticyclone going to linger, like a bad smell?

image.thumb.png.0e6d9b58ed557a4cdbacd4fff954de68.png

I have an idea - let’s all push the UK and Ireland towards Scandinavia? 

They are always eating lobster while we munch on a mini tin of tuna.

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29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im actually looking to the NE mate but yes the low heights to the NW are not going away any time soon...:-)

Have you moved to the North East North West.?

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Disagree with the positivity over the UKMO chart, here it is compared to GFSp 00z (pretty similar)

UN144-21.GIFgfsnh-0-156.png

All that can happen from there is a flattening of the ridge as all the energy is going over the top between Iceland and Greenland, you can already see the next low to SW of Greenland.

Now if you wanted to be ultra optimistic and call for he pattern to be backed West from there and the Icelandic low (at 120) to blow up and phase further West with the Scandi trough with more amplification behind then we might be on to something but that is not what that UKMO chart shows unfortunately.

When the 168 comes out it will show the ridge flattening with LP near Iceland.

I almost posted on the GFSp 00z to explain how adjustments could give a transient snow event but figured the models were going the opposite way which GFS has since this morning pushing the pattern E not W and delaying the phasing of the Icelandic low

 

Edited by Mucka
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Just now, Mucka said:

Disagree with the positivity over the UKMO chart, here it is compared to GFSp 00z (pretty similar)

UN144-21.GIFgfsnh-0-156.png

All that can happen from there is a flattening of the ridge as all the energy is going over the top between Iceland and Greenland, you can already see the next low to SW of Greenland.

Now if you wanted to be ultra optimistic and call for he pattern to be backed West from there and the Icelandic low (at 120) to blow up and phase further West with the Scandi trough with more amplification behind then we might be on to something but that is not what that UKMO chart shows unfortunately.

When the 168 comes out it will show the ridge flattening with LP near Iceland

 

I agree. It sums up the model output today when some big up that day 6 ukmo chart. The bar is being set lower and lower. We need some Monday morning upgrades.

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Is it me or is there a lot of purple on there and what looks like quite an organised pv, it was only a few days ago it was looking a lot more blocked and patchy than this.

mind you I’m a complete amateur so may be completely wrong

19ACDAE8-9D99-4EC8-894B-EC742F592AF7.png

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