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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

 

Are you sure January is on track with your predictions? 😂😂😂

Maybe some fleeting cold uppers but until mid-January nothing really to write home about, average January weather really.

image.thumb.png.47c29ab100e59cc0f48585853438453c.png

Later on things get more interesting as some innocuous blocking starts to filter some cold further in FI but that's were the cold has remained throughout this winter,,,

image.thumb.png.4de7d645c1d20fd1b74f94886ecbc532.png

Given the SSW occurred at the start of January we should expect to wait until towards the end of January, not too dissimilar to January 2013 really. Given the ENSO state we have a better background signal for a weaker Atlantic come winters second half.

Next swingometers will be on January 25th as that's when I think we should start seeing the better signals for cold.

I think it'll be a little later this year. The first low on a southerly trajectory in 2013 was on the 12th, then a snow event of sorts on the 14th. By the 16th we were in a very cold easterly ahead of the main event on Friday 18th. 

Oh if it could meet the same dates this year!

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Truly horrendous output Feb.

GFS seems adamant on sinking those lows into Europe over the last 24 hours in FI which does fit in with Chionos comment yesterday.

Once we have low pressure to our S or SE hopefully that's when we will see some decent blocking to our NW.

Whilst ECM is dire in its output, GFS is still showing the jet diving SE outside the 10 day frame, lets just hope its got the right idea and ECM might start showing something similar is far reaches in the coming days.

What could possible go wrong? Everything.

 

Hang on a minute lets have some realism - Horrendus it certainly isn't - I don't see long fetched SWlies with absolutely no end in sight

 

Just saying 

Edited by Banbury

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The 2013 SSW was the 6th Jan (i think), but there was a quick wave trop response and the cold was in about another 6 or 7 days later with snow events.

Ah, indeed you are correct 🙂 , well hopefully we can get one later in January... fingers crossed. I do think the second half of winter will see less in the way of mild SW winds but we shall see.

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Tbh i see this pattern  lasting to mid February  with deep cold migrating west for a few weeks ,extremely  disappointing  winter 😐

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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Tbh i see this pattern  lasting to mid February  with deep cold migrating west for a few weeks ,extremely  disappointing  winter 😐

Deep cold migrating West? for a few weeks , that's great then...………….thank you 

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GEFS from the 6z aren’t the best, much more energy in the northern arm, control in particular is poor.. the energy around Greenland is a real ongoing issue IMO, the SSW doesn’t appear to have have any effect on it. Hopefully we can trend back downwards on the 12z

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I think it’s safe to say one buzzword that has become extinct in recent days, QTR. The exact definition of which is somewhat arbitrary and subjective. Some may argue that there has been a fairly QTR to the SSW, it just hasn’t been of any benefit to us. 

However, this Northern Hemispheric shakeup is an ongoing feast. I am convinced our time is coming. I maintain, we would have to consider ourselves hugely unlucky if this winter passes by without producing a cold snowy spell. I think we are now looking at, probably, around the 19th of the month before this is likely to start in one form or the other. Currently we are looking at a potentially unstable unsettled transition as well. More and more convinced the almost inevitable Arctic High creation is going to play a big part in this.

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What might be interesting is if anyone has time to check on when other early SSW's occurred and we had no real benefit from this?

Not me sorry.

 

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GEFS from the 6z aren’t the best, much more energy in the northern arm, control in particular is poor.. the energy around Greenland is a real ongoing issue IMO, the SSW doesn’t appear to have have any effect on it. Hopefully we can trend back downwards on the 12z

There are not that many but in this situation i would think that the flatliner solution on the graph has an above average chance of verifying, look closely and you will see about 4 or 5 flatlining at -8c, yes the majority are milder but they are zig zagging about with no mean consensus for that particular cluster, that suggests that the majority cluster has a decreased chance of verifying.

image.thumb.png.3d882ffcb8f7823d697402bd5ce052fa.png

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1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

What might be interesting is if anyone has time to check on when other early SSW's occurred and we had no real benefit from this?

Not me sorry.

 

2006 but was that a displacement rather than a split?  and also there was some late season cold, who knows whether the vortex had been already been weakened by the event.

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It is once again looking poor. It seems the better the background signals are this winter the worse the outlook gets. Maybe it's those SSTs. Never believed in that theory but maybe it holds true...

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GEFS from the 6z aren’t the best, much more energy in the northern arm, control in particular is poor.. the energy around Greenland is a real ongoing issue IMO, the SSW doesn’t appear to have have any effect on it. Hopefully we can trend back downwards on the 12z

19 looks good - 16 at the death - 15 good - 14 good  -12 at the death -11 okish - 9 at the death - 7 v good - 6 v good - 3 okish -2 stunning 

I've just gone through the ENS , caution as to where you start judging from , I think guidance has to be taken from the Beeb and The Met and they are looking at the 3rd week in Jan ( potentially ) the above are good runs from 240 onwards , no point looking at anything before if you are searching for a trend.

Edited by Banbury

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25 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Hang on a minute lets have some realism - Horrendus it certainly isn't - I don't see long fetched SWlies with absolutely no end in sight

 

Just saying 

Hi Banbury, apologies was a sarcastic comment as Feb posted a really nice chart.

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1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

It is once again looking poor. It seems the better the background signals are this winter the worse the outlook gets. Maybe it's those SSTs. Never believed in that theory but maybe it holds true...

Patience....

The background signals will come through, maybe not as one may expect. It's not like there is some secret magical mechanism that could make the weather worse than the signals suggest. It's a symptom of overreliance of NWP.

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Still entirely possible the have a couple days of snow in the south but I think the ship for a proper freeze has sailed

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4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Still entirely possible the have a couple days of snow in the south but I think the ship for a proper freeze has sailed

Its entirely possible to have 2 weeks of snow - have you just emigrated to the UK ? Your experience of UK winter must be limited 

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5 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

I think the ship for a proper freeze has sailed

I’m not sure many will agree with that. It’s early January, nothing set in stone for later in the month yet let alone next month. 

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39 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

 

Are you sure January is on track with your predictions? 😂😂😂

Maybe some fleeting cold uppers but until mid-January nothing really to write home about, average January weather really.

image.thumb.png.47c29ab100e59cc0f48585853438453c.png

Later on things get more interesting as some innocuous blocking starts to filter some cold further in FI but that's were the cold has remained throughout this winter,,,

image.thumb.png.4de7d645c1d20fd1b74f94886ecbc532.png

Given the SSW occurred at the start of January we should expect to wait until towards the end of January, not too dissimilar to January 2013 really. Given the ENSO state we have a better background signal for a weaker Atlantic come winters second half.

Next swingometers will be on January 25th as that's when I think we should start seeing the better signals for cold.

think that prediction was more on what they wanted to happen not what was going to happen,-29c ? hasn’t happened since records began 😂,maybe one day but you would need exceptional cold uppers to begin with then High pressure settling over the U.K. trapping the cold air underneath.

2nd half still looking good for dramatic change though.

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Well, to say there's nothing really going on with the models..as some say!..it's very busy in here..there must be a change to predominantly cold zonal on the way..oh I do hope so, this winter has been a complete bore so far!..onwards and upwards!!😉:cold:

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The 2013 SSW was the 6th Jan (i think), but there was a quick wave trop response and the cold was in about another 6 or 7 days later with snow events.

2013 a totally different type of event to the one just now: 2013 had strong vortex lobes totally separated with cross polar heights. It's not until mid month that you see a similar profile in the strat models.

2013 psnh_pen_hist_z30_201302.gif   current psnh_pen_hist_z30_201873.gif

240 GFS forecast.  https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2019010606&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=240

Patience required.

Edited by Gael_Force

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11 hours ago, Don said:

Have these just been updated?

Yes

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Posted (edited)

 

13 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

2013 a totally different type of event to the one just now: 2013 had strong vortex lobes totally separated with cross polar heights. It's not until mid month that you see a similar profile in the strat models.

2013 psnh_pen_hist_z30_201302.gif   current psnh_pen_hist_z30_201873.gif

240 GFS forecast.  https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2019010606&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=240

Patience required.

Yes - i agree!!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Posted (edited)

I wonder what this thread'll be like in 50-years' time: Will we be arguing over verification-stats at Day 287? 😁

Anywho, the FV3 at T+324 hours looks positive!image.thumb.png.279614c44c3610a30132f5eba896d0b3.png

Och well..a west-based NAO. To be expected though, as the Operational flips between adjacent clusters?😁

image.thumb.png.4bb730c5f590841f8c094e9e161d46ea.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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34 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

It is once again looking poor. It seems the better the background signals are this winter the worse the outlook gets. Maybe it's those SSTs. Never believed in that theory but maybe it holds true...

Are they really where I'm sitting all looking very interesting ..??

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