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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Another day and sadly nothing of note yet!!totally agree with nick sussex at the moment!!gona be taking the prozac out very soon!!those fi charts need to get a lot closer and it needs to happen pretty soon!!no real blocking to our north and west forecast at all and we are relying on wedges which could easily flatten out!!tense times coming up for anyone who wants snow!!oh and ecm is exactly how i think it will pan out flat as a pancake and ive been banging on bout this for days!!again i could be wrong but nothing at the moment is changing my mind!!

Edited by shaky
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GFS 06z maintaining the trend of wedges and cold trough as things get interesting on the long wave pattern:

Way out in FI, what could go wrong, but better than mundanity: gfsnh-0-348.thumb.png.120ed4cd8109d5aecaae9b05ba4b93e3.png

Still no sign of HLB'ing apart from the Arctic High, so any background signals for wave 1 or 2 action sadly not showing yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Hell, hello, hello. What have we ere then? Could that be the 'trigger low'?

image.thumb.png.d9e1f2a7998cadc7248aab8cbfa05bab.png

 

The infamous trigger low?...probably not, looks like fairly normal winter synoptics, note yet another low developing to the west.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Whilst, of course, it's folly to place much faith at this range, there is a continuing consistency to what's been shown around the 19th-20th of the month.

312 image.thumb.png.348c8b770efdb267dd3d5034269302a8.png   336  image.thumb.png.2628244ced100d4e2e9411e7d6a74fae.png

Split PV, taking aim at old Blighty.  

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Nice looking gfs06z out in fi. But will these get any closer. Seems like we are chasing day 9&10 again. And we are told that the gfs is cannon fodder model anyway so can we really put any faith in it. The hunt continues. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes its so absolutely dyer output - another rubbish run with with the -6 to -8c isotherm covering the UK for around the last 80 hours with some PPN and the -16c lurking to the North East at the end of the run.

image.thumb.png.d626f3b13d8d50ecea646e446c201861.png

 

15 days away mmmm I wouldn't bet you house on it if I were you.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, The PIT said:

15 days away mmmm I wouldn't bet you house on it if I were you.

Nor would i, but you have to get the model output to show it at some point if you want it, so unless you're one of the misguided people that think this could suddenly pop up in the 180 range, then its as good as you can hope for if you are looking for snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes its so absolutely dyer output - another rubbish run with with the -6 to -8c isotherm covering the UK for around the last 80 hours with some PPN and the -16c lurking to the North East at the end of the run.

image.thumb.png.d626f3b13d8d50ecea646e446c201861.png

 

Utterly and completely Nathan, so absolutely Eric, that I think I'll go and cut off my own head, with a chainsaw!

image.thumb.png.fe7b224b5ad57eb72d2129fe244e7561.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes its so absolutely dyer output - another rubbish run with with the -6 to -8c isotherm covering the UK for around the last 80 hours with some PPN and the -16c lurking to the North East at the end of the run.

image.thumb.png.d626f3b13d8d50ecea646e446c201861.png

 

Truly horrendous output Feb.

GFS seems adamant on sinking those lows into Europe over the last 24 hours in FI which does fit in with Chionos comment yesterday.

Once we have low pressure to our S or SE hopefully that's when we will see some decent blocking to our NW.

Whilst ECM is dire in its output, GFS is still showing the jet diving SE outside the 10 day frame, lets just hope its got the right idea and ECM might start showing something similar is far reaches in the coming days.

What could possible go wrong? Everything.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Whilst, of course, it's folly to place much faith at this range, there is a continuing consistency to what's been shown around the 19th-20th of the month.

312 image.thumb.png.348c8b770efdb267dd3d5034269302a8.png   336  image.thumb.png.2628244ced100d4e2e9411e7d6a74fae.png

Split PV, taking aim at old Blighty.  

That’s been the case for a few days now and the anomaly charts would seem to back it up. Turning point looks to be last third of Jan and has been for a while now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Ali1977 said:

Totally agree, not sure why people are moaning. Some consistency from the GFS and inline with the METO. I’m hoping it comes a few days early but not sure it will, GEFS will hopefully have some awesome Perbs. 

Heh, you never know it may start the same day as 1947s freeze did!! 

The thing is, yes would we like to have a better ridge, but by people's admittance its FI so that could also change, i don't know what they are actually hoping to see in the model output right now.

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
1 minute ago, vizzy2004 said:

Truly horrendous output Feb.

GFS seems adamant on sinking those lows into Europe over the last 24 hours in FI which does fit in with Chionos comment yesterday.

Once we have low pressure to our S or SE hopefully that's when we will see some decent blocking to our NW.

Whilst ECM is dire in its output, GFS is still showing the jet diving SE outside the 10 day frame, lets just hope its got the right idea and ECM might start showing something similar is far reaches in the coming days.

What could possible go wrong? Everything.

 

Very true if things can go wrong they usually do for the U.K. yes gfs06z looks nice but we are told it’s cannon fodder model and to stick with the European models. So for now I’m disregarding the gfs output. Because as Steve murr has told us countless times it is 5th in the stats for a reason. Hopefully we will see a better ecm and Ukmo later on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
8 minutes ago, The PIT said:

15 days away mmmm I wouldn't bet you house on it if I were you.

Would you put your house on no cold for the later part of jan with all the info we have to hand?

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

The trend is definitely there for around 19th Jan and onwards. And possibly add in the affects of of any trop responses to that. 

59E43E84-3FEE-4D00-A5AE-5325260F0727.gif

5EA8DEDD-F47F-43CC-B87B-BC20EFDD9E68.png

BED3EA5F-8899-4CB0-A19B-6041799532BA.png

E5B1DC15-0B4E-44DF-82A3-120911902FDA.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

There’s no point in people moaning about it being at day 10+ that’s the range we are looking at now for a cold spell, like it or lump it if you haven’t accepted that maybe take a break for a few days!

We’ve seen this before in past winters where things appear with such a strong signal in FI, especially after a SSW and they are much more likely to happen than normal trends that far out. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
On 04/11/2018 at 22:24, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Early January to produce a set up to challenge record cold.  -29c possible however I suspect daytime maxima may be beaten

 

BFTP

 

12 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Lol Dec was a bust re ongoing but a few short surprises....but main thrust shunted well east.  But this month is very much now on track....but I fear the shunt east again as a precaution 

 

 

BFTP 

Are you sure January is on track with your predictions? 

Maybe some fleeting cold uppers but until mid-January nothing really to write home about, average January weather really.

image.thumb.png.47c29ab100e59cc0f48585853438453c.png

Later on things get more interesting as some innocuous blocking starts to filter some cold further in FI but that's were the cold has remained throughout this winter,,,

image.thumb.png.4de7d645c1d20fd1b74f94886ecbc532.png

Given the SSW occurred at the start of January we should expect to wait until towards the end of January, not too dissimilar to January 2013 really. Given the ENSO state we have a better background signal for a weaker Atlantic come winters second half.

Next swingometers will be on January 25th as that's when I think we should start seeing the better signals for cold.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Yes I’m liking the look of the gfs atm but it was only a few days ago we was told is rubbish and stick with euro models now it’s all of a sudden good.

most of us on here want the same thing but tbh imo no model is better than the other they are all just computers at the end of the day weather they show cold or mild

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

 

Are you sure January is on track with your predictions? 

Maybe some fleeting cold uppers but until mid-January nothing really to write home about, average January weather really.

 

Later on things get more interesting as some innocuous blocking starts to filter some cold further in FI but that's were the cold has remained throughout this winter,,,

 

Given the SSW occurred at the start of January we should expect to wait until towards the end of January, not too dissimilar to January 2013 really. Given the ENSO state we have a better background signal for a weaker Atlantic come winters second half.

Next swingometers will be on January 25th as that's when I think we should start seeing the better signals for cold.

The 2013 SSW was the 6th Jan (i think), but there was a quick wave trop response and the cold was in about another 6 or 7 days later with snow events.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
24 minutes ago, terrier said:

Very true if things can go wrong they usually do for the U.K. yes gfs06z looks nice but we are told it’s cannon fodder model and to stick with the European models. So for now I’m disregarding the gfs output. Because as Steve murr has told us countless times it is 5th in the stats for a reason. Hopefully we will see a better ecm and Ukmo later on. 

You know people can be wrong with their forecasts and opinions, if they were they would be a god and contary to belief there are no gods here. Now the models are not infallible but gfs will not always hit 5th in the stats. It will be greater or worse. 

GFS in the later stages is always about themes and today's 6z carrys the theme a long. High pressure in charge now low pressure and the jet digging down later. No more detail than that if I knew the detail I would be a god and guess what I'm not.

Peace out.

Edited by festivalking
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

 

Are you sure January is on track with your predictions? 

Maybe some fleeting cold uppers but until mid-January nothing really to write home about, average January weather really.

image.thumb.png.47c29ab100e59cc0f48585853438453c.png

Later on things get more interesting as some innocuous blocking starts to filter some cold further in FI but that's were the cold has remained throughout this winter,,,

image.thumb.png.4de7d645c1d20fd1b74f94886ecbc532.png

Given the SSW occurred at the start of January we should expect to wait until towards the end of January, not too dissimilar to January 2013 really. Given the ENSO state we have a better background signal for a weaker Atlantic come winters second half.

Next swingometers will be on January 25th as that's when I think we should start seeing the better signals for cold.

I think it'll be a little later this year. The first low on a southerly trajectory in 2013 was on the 12th, then a snow event of sorts on the 14th. By the 16th we were in a very cold easterly ahead of the main event on Friday 18th. 

Oh if it could meet the same dates this year!

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
29 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Truly horrendous output Feb.

GFS seems adamant on sinking those lows into Europe over the last 24 hours in FI which does fit in with Chionos comment yesterday.

Once we have low pressure to our S or SE hopefully that's when we will see some decent blocking to our NW.

Whilst ECM is dire in its output, GFS is still showing the jet diving SE outside the 10 day frame, lets just hope its got the right idea and ECM might start showing something similar is far reaches in the coming days.

What could possible go wrong? Everything.

 

Hang on a minute lets have some realism - Horrendus it certainly isn't - I don't see long fetched SWlies with absolutely no end in sight

 

Just saying 

Edited by Banbury
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