The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[That ECM]

GEFS not updated?

[winterof79]

Having looked at GFS from 192z I can't see the reason to be despondent.

At the back end of last year FI showed constant High pressure over us and here we are.

Now it is consistently showing a colder scenario with wedges thrown up toward Griceland...it's coming

 

[The Beast From The East]

So how long do we think the effects of the SSW will go on for? What I'm trying to say is has it already started and that's why some places in Europe are seeing really cold and snowy extreme weather and is it possible we are just in the wrong place this time round? Does  it last for weeks or months after as I have no idea...  if it's weeks then I'm guessing we still have a great chance of something special later in the month but if it's getting near to the end of its peak come the end of the month then what then? Even if we get some colder weather at the end of the month or into February could it just be down to normal winter weather and nothing to do with the original SSW that I believe was happenig high up in the atmosphere during December..  Many Thanks.. ?

 

 

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

In fairness though @Johnp this is the Hunt for cold thread... So come hell or high water people will hunt! Be it day 6 on the ECM or D15 on P16 of the 18z gfs. Nature of this place.

Fair point, although it's frustrating that Nick S can vent his disappointment, but anyone else gets slated!

[carinthian]

26 minutes ago, carinthian said:

On the other side of the extreme I have been told that quite a number of travel routes have been closed in Salzburger Land this morning due to avalanches. The snow just keeps coming. This picture below from Rauris which is a relatively low resort. More blizzards expected in a couple of days as another Arctic blast moves into Central Euroland.

Live picture from Obertauren buried in snow and mountain pass closed. 4 days of none stop snowfall and more forecast.

C

[Ladyofthestorm]

Longer range modelling all pointing towards SSW influenced pattern.  Blocking to our NW low pressure to our east and NE. Nly outbreaks in abundance. Ok, it's not the beast from the east,  but it will certainly be very cold and snowy for coastal areas with some outbreaks of snow for more inland areas at times. 

The beast from the east last Feb brought us Zilch snow to Western Scotland. Dry and cold Easterly winds. So it's our turn!

 

[ArHu3]

3 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

What I'm trying to say is has it already started and that's why some places in Europe are seeing really cold and snowy extreme weather and is it possible we are just in the wrong place this time round

That's standard central and eastern European winter weather because of the azors high pressure troughs always end there unless there is some amplification of the azors high

Edited January 6, 2019 by ArHu3

[mulzy]

Blatant cherry picking but there are some cold NWP charts out there in deep FI.

P11 GEFS 0z

P20 GEFS 0z

P07 GEFS 0z

 

GEFS day 15 500Mb anomalies

 

Edited January 6, 2019 by mulzy

[Frosty.]

I love the way the GEFS 00z mean is trending for the second half / last third of January..increasing wintry potential!!

[karlos1983]

13 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Fair point, although it's frustrating that Nick S can vent his disappointment, but anyone else gets slated!

I’m absolutely not slating you, this place is all about opinions and you should feel free to express yours  . Also I did tell Nick to go for some Moules Frites and a glass of wine yesterday . Which he took in good spirits

Edited January 6, 2019 by karlos1983
Typo

[markw2680]

Much that I love the idea of a big freeze up and loads of snow that hangs around for more than a few hours it sadly doesnt look like coming anytime soon, you here all the promise of background signals etc but sadly until the actual weather forecasts or charts come into short range it’s just not going to happen. It’s all good in the distance until it gets closer and then vanishes into thin air. Sorry for the moan but it’s very frustrating and the date does just keep getting pushed back week by week. Yes the background this and that but sadly the pieces just are not lining up for us in the uk!! Mayb they will look better in the next week but the weather will do what it wants and continue to make fools of us all if it chooses too. Never mind March will be here before we no it just when hlb decides to appear

[Methuselah]

So here's how the 06Z Para ends...No snow chances there? Synoptic disaster? Winter is over? Goes away and scratches noddle!

It's all so negative, in here, that even You-Know-Who would struggle to see the positives:

[Duane S.]

Arctic High becoming more and more of a player towards mid month onwards. Hopefully this will be the game changer.

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, I take your point but the 850s do tend to be under done a little at that range. 

Either way, great charts for the Scottish ski industry. 

This Winter really has been rancid so far - I live in the West of Scotland and have seen about 100 flakes of snowfall. (All in one hour period)

I have hills/mountains directly to my North/Northwest with good views from my windows and these have only had a cover for two days max. (Pictures attached from December 16th)

I really do hope we are all not sitting here at the start of February posting the same stuff about the lack of snowfall anytime soon in the UK and Ireland. 

Surely late Winter/Early Spring will deliver the goods? Until then give me cold zonal all day long so I can at least get my fix!

When we are talking about charts looking great for the Scottish ski resorts approaching mid January...that is when we all know it is getting desperate for us! 

Onwards and upwards - plenty of Winter/Spring left for some glorious snowfall for us all!

Have a good day all!

I’m off to trawl the CFS 9 monthly charts for snowmageddon and a hot Summer! 

Edited January 6, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Leon1]

It is so strange how when there's one model run that is good for cold and snow, everyone takes it as gospel and everyone thinks winter's nailed on, the truth is the next run is so unlikely to be as good as that but people always get so upset when it happens. Us coldies need to hold our heads high because I think this winter will deliver what we want, but it will require patience.

[Thinon]

13 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Live picture from Obertauren buried in snow and mountain pass closed. 4 days of none stop snowfall and more forecast.

C

 

No disrespect but surely there is a more suitable thread for nowcasting Austria's weather?

[Summer Sun]

23 minutes ago, That ECM said:

GEFS not updated?

Yep

[Tim Bland]

21 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Having looked at GFS from 192z I can't see the reason to be despondent.

At the back end of last year FI showed constant High pressure over us and here we are.

Now it is consistently showing a colder scenario with wedges thrown up toward Griceland...it's coming

 

Possibly because many people have said GFS is a cannon fodder and not worth looking at? GFSp is a lot flatter with less wedges. Day 10 ECM shows a rampant PV over Greenland ...I could go on 

[johnholmes]

The 500 mb anomaly charts suggest that the upper air pattern in the 6-14 day time frame will be Atlantic based, generally Pm type air so not all that mild much of the time other than any warm sector in low pressure weather systems that will run across the Atlantic. Some sort of troughing into Europe for much of this time. The expectation of temporary ridging and somewhat deeper cold air to the rear of depressions. But I cannot see on them any signal for a spell let alone a period of deep cold. Not what most want to read but there is little point in pretending there is something in the two week period. Beyond that is outside my remit.

link as always below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[matty40s]

5 minutes ago, Thinon said:

No disrespect but surely there is a more suitable thread for nowcasting Austria's weather?

Carinthian not only sends us lovely snowy pics, he also has access to some data for European ski resort planning which covers the UK as well. He shares this with us on a regular basis.

Keep posting Carinthian.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

9 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Much that I love the idea of a big freeze up and loads of snow that hangs around for more than a few hours it sadly doesnt look like coming anytime soon, you here all the promise of background signals etc but sadly until the actual weather forecasts or charts come into short range it’s just not going to happen. It’s all good in the distance until it gets closer and then vanishes into thin air. Sorry for the moan but it’s very frustrating and the date does just keep getting pushed back week by week. Yes the background this and that but sadly the pieces just are not lining up for us in the uk!! Mayb they will look better in the next week but the weather will do what it wants and continue to make fools of us all if it chooses too. Never mind March will be here before we no it just when hlb decides to appear

I think someone is feeling the pain although i do get it! You can't have a dig at the ones that put lots of hours and research into trying to understand meterology, it's natural to try and blame people when it don't go to plan that's human nature. I agree it continues to be put back but that's the weather, but also remember the fact it's only the 6th jan! 

[markw2680]

5 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

It is so strange how when there's one model run that is good for cold and snow, everyone takes it as gospel and everyone thinks winter's nailed on, the truth is the next run is so unlikely to be as good as that but people always get so upset when it happens. Us coldies need to hold our heads high because I think this winter will deliver what we want, but it will require patience.

Lol it’s not just one run that’s gospel is pretty much every run every model apart from the odd bit of excitement that gets blown away by the next run. That’s the reality of it all, what’s the point of good fi charts if they never actually make it lol

[Johnp]

7 minutes ago, Thinon said:

No disrespect but surely there is a more suitable thread for nowcasting Austria's weather?

I enjoy and value Carinthians posts.

He never posts photos to 'show off' and also gives insight to the UK outlook from his forecasting team at the resort.

Carry on C!

[Kiwi]

With the vortex in such a mess I'm confident that mid to late Jan will be the start of a memorable period of winter weather...and hopefully the UK will get its share.

http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html

http://weatheriscool.com/index.php/stratosfaren-zonal-mean-u-wind-60n-vcs/

 

 

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

I think someone is feeling the pain although i do get it! You can't have a dig at the ones that put lots of hours and research into trying to understand meterology, it's natural to try and blame people when it don't go to plan that's human nature. I agree it continues to be put back but that's the weather, but also remember the fact it's only the 6th jan! 

Yes I get what your saying believe me and I no it’s the 6th jan but you can’t tell me it don’t just keep getting pushed back every week. It’s no good having really good background signals it’s the weather on the ground that counts and it continues to be rather dump