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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    GFS op = old and clapped out and not worth the bother any more. FV3, it's direct upgrade/replacement is the way forward, regardless of whether it shows cold, mild or average. 

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    It’s a watery weak easterly that won’t do much. Let’s get the real deal please!

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Well a much better ECM 12z , let’s hope there’s support on the ENS later . 

    C2C958F1-8478-49D7-A737-7B05B52B6D83.png

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    22AB7A88-8BDB-4194-B8EF-EEDB71808D44.png

    AEFF2094-C175-4555-9CFD-D29AB1795281.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    The tail-end of the Para ends thus:   

     

    image.png

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    It’s a watery weak easterly that won’t do much. Let’s get the real deal please!

    Let's not disdain the hors d'oeuvres ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

    What date in January does the Parallel replace the current GFS?

    Sometime between now and March is the official word I believe

    ”The next generation of GFS, FV3 GFS, is currently undergoing evaluation and the plan is to put it into production in Q2FY19 (January to March, 2019) as GFS v15.0. This next version of GFS represents a major change from the existing version.”

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    1 hour ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

    Yes, I agree with this. I appreciate some are desperate for cold and snow but these factors are the elephants in the rather crowded room. I believe the westerly phase QBO has played a significant factor in the Meto backing away from cold in their update. The trouble is, this has been a continuation for several weeks now and any further pushbacks put us firmly into February - and in the blink of an eye, we're all peering into 384 territory and Spring. 

    A lot of water to pass under the bridge before then but with the output flat for the foreseeable another significant chunk of worthwhile winter gets chewed up. However a lot of useable weather for now for sure so no bad thing at all ?

    But they haven’t backed away from the cold.The models they use like glosea and mogreps are indicating that it might be later in january that it turns much  colder not mid January.How is that backing away from cold,and at that timescale anything could happen yet .Do people not actually read before posting untrue statements!

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    Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
    2 hours ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    2 major things for me which give major doubt 

    *exceptionally mild December: Usually going back through the CET archive, January’s and February’s following a very mild December rarely deliver.

    *Westerly Qbo: January’s with a  westerly qbo tend to be mild, or (not snowy). 

    However, despite this, there is still some scope for optimism... we haven’t seen the affects of the recent ssw yet come into the models... and we have very low flux.

    Although some of the coldest and snowiest have come after a mild December.. 1947 and 1963 for example.. 

    We are already seeing and feeling some of the effects of the SSW and split as we speak with temperatures and wind dropping huge amounts from New Year’s Eve and some experts already believe this SSW could be the strongest on record. So this excites me as the potential is definitely real. 

    I’m in no way saying that a historical Cold spell is nailed on but there’s lots going on in the atmosphere that definitely increases the risk of it. So like you say buddy a lot of scope to look forward to and I look forward to keeping up to date with some of the outstanding posts that are produced in these forums. Keep up the good work guys?

    Edited by Yorkshirepudding
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    18 minutes ago, Purga said:

    Easterly drift for the south

    image.thumb.png.bfeac59bc73280f38654a861f588b601.pngimage.thumb.png.5de1af4073ba6ca1be5b78a3f2037e86.png

    Yes, and a few snow flurries/showers in the far south East could still be around by D10 on the ECM. Just want that high a bit further NE.?

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

    A decent ECM, but not what most had in mind I'd imagine.

    Hopefully it's just the start...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Sometime between now and March is the official word I believe

    yes, the parallel is modelled to take over from the current GFS then....but that's T2160, way out in FI, unlikely to verify, and if the ECM & UKMO don't smell the coffee and come aboard then it definitely won't happen ... ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    When’s the next EC46 out? I’m sure that signalled a delay to mid month cold as per today’s update from “them”?  

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Ali1977 said:

    When’s the next EC46 out? I’m sure that signalled a delay to mid month cold as per today’s update from “them”?  

    Thursday 2205pm

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Thursday 2205pm

    Cheers, not expecting a flip back but surely that’s still a posdibilty with such hard forecasting at the minute.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    As long as the eps remain flatter, we should all still be wary about any possible cold spell. The ecm ext ens need to start smelling the coffee soon. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Ali1977 said:

    Cheers, not expecting a flip back but surely that’s still a posdibilty with such hard forecasting at the minute.

    I think given the lack of downwelling in the strat and UKMO 30 dayer now less bullish, i think i would take the last week of January as long as it happens at all, next 2 weeks is  pretty nailed on now, pehaps some cold zonality at the back end but no blocking high enough for heavy snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    50 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

    Its just the amount of Information it bring out everyday , it can get very confusing in the main thread ... 1 Gfs run can wipe out an ECM run in the thread , even though ECM might be on to something , id rather have a separate thread to discuss the merits of the ECM /UKMO rather than have to guess a randam page number after 2 good/bad have filled the forum with comments based on what 1 GFS run throws out. 

    The ec is never on to something, when EC sees hlb but the some members of the gefs are not on board already you can be sure it will turn out to be another wild goose chase, you might get a toppler or MLB but you won't get sustained hlb

     

    EC fi charts can look exciting though, unlike gfs charts

    Edited by ArHu3
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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I think given the lack of downwelling in the strat and UKMO 30 dayer now less bullish, i think i would take the last week of January as long as it happens at all, next 2 weeks is  pretty nailed on now, pehaps some cold zonality at the back end but no blocking high enough for heavy snow.

    Two weeks of weather nailed on? What models do you have access to? ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

    The next 2 weeks are nailed on? Since when Feb...... all I’ve seen today is pretty much everything but the kitchen sink! If that’s nailed on, I’d hate to see uncertainty 

    High pressure and dry up until about D12, ok there may be some incursions of westerlies and wet weather into Northern UK before then and then probably further south gradually until perhaps, just perhaps around D15 D16 (ish) cold and snowy zonality may creep further south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
    3 hours ago, snowfish1 said:

    The charts are all over the place. What is one to tell my mates when they ask whether the UK will see snow? BBC and other sites going with no but yes to Europe. I thought that there was a great deal of uncertainty around our island or do we need to just wait and see. Any input would be appreciated

    Tell 'em what I tell my mates! 

    That snow is pretty much the most difficult weather type to forecast, and that snow on an island which can have, and has had, snow-bearing winds from any direction is very nearly impossible to forecast until the snowflake lands on your head ?

    So far as I can tell (Grade 8 Audience qualification, no meterologist-performer training whatsoever), the different models have better or worse reliability in different types of weather, different seasons, and even in different parts of the islands of the UK, so it's a question of trying to keep up with discussions in here, learning gradually which posters are the ones who cautiously but steadily incline towards a prospect which then tends to occur and which posters leap towards something yelling that it's nailed on only for it to vanish at T240, and slowly learning that all we ever can be sure of is nowcasting, but that it's a heck of a good time in here on the roller-coaster of nail-biting Oh-my-God-that-can't-possibly-actually-happen-can-it-it's-out-in-FI-but-still-maybe-maybe ?

    Mind you - I have emailed my elderly parents up north and told them to keep more coal in the porch and have plenty of dishwasher-salt-granules to hand, because it's about to get a good bit colder. 

    Snow, dunno. Hope so, but, well, it's snow (or snaw, in the Kilted thread, of course), so we can't tell til we're building the snowman. 

    But cold, yep, so far as I can read this lot in here, the cold is definitely on its way. Frost this morning, ice still on the car at midday needing scraped off, and I'm expecting that more mornings than not in January... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Seasonality said:

    Two weeks of weather nailed on? What models do you have access to? ?

    If you think you are getting anything other than Anticyclonic any time soon then you are in cloud cookoo land.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    Two weeks of weather nailed on? What models do you have access to? ?

    On the 0z ECM op, there is only 2mm of precipitation forecast and the eps mean has less than 10mm forecast in London right out to D16

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    10 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    Someone isn't paying attention. What I've very, very clearly said is the current GFS op is old and clapped out and it is, it's literally on its last legs due for the FV3 to take over. I also clearly said the FV3 should be paid attention to regardless of what it shows. Do try to read everything old chap and not just see what you want to see. 

    Oh I’m paying attention. So are you suggesting that the GFS op is like an old car? And that it’s processing power is being decreased as it approaches retirement? It’s no better or worse now than at any time during its existence.

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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