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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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16 minutes ago, More Snow said:

you forgot February= longer days so snaw is pointless.

March= only good if you live in Scotland.

Forget March, It regularly snows in May in Scotland, even in June it can still snow...Right I'm moving. ?

Or Southern Italy might be a good bet, 2/3 meters of snow in the winter and 40c in the summer.

 

Anyway, London ensembles on the 18z are still showing that cooling trend after mid month.:oldsmile:

graphe_ens3.gif

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Forget March, It regularly snows in May in Scotland, even in June it can still snow...Right I'm moving. ?

Or Southern Italy might be a good bet, 2/3 meters of snow in the winter and 40c in the summer.

 

Anyway, London ensembles on the 18z are still showing that cooling trend after mid month.:oldsmile:

graphe_ens3.gif

Come and join us!!!! 

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13 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

It has been terrible so far. But when you say 3-4 weeks left, are you expecting the world to end or something? I suppose it will for some people if nothing happens between now and the deadline (mid April I'd imagine)

 

Low temperatures are much more likely to persist in January or February compared to march or April. The beast from the east was great, but after 3-4 days of warm sun all the snow was all gone. 

Personally, I consider winter to be pretty much over by the end of February. Anything in march is unlikely to last more than a few days and snow melts instantly due to the longer daylight hours. 

I'm still optimistic about mid/end January. There is certainly a lot of potential to see some cold and snowy weather 

Edited by edinburgh_1992
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15 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Again i guess it all comes down to location. ive had 1 snaw day that left me with laying snaw for 4 days in December and this week alone 4 hard frosts with -6c over night, with plenty of others that ive not counted. now im pretty sure many folk in the southern half of the UK would take that each and every winter and be happy with it, but once again this is the hunt for blizzards thread.

Lol, you're the 'lucky' one. It feels like the old donkey, stick and carrot routine this year.

High expectations for the rest of winter though, those frosts can't stay away forever. 

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8 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Low temperatures are much more likely to persist in January or February compared to march or April. The beast from the east was great, but after 3-4 days of warm sun all the snow was all gone. 

Personally, I consider winter to be pretty much over by the end of February. Anything in march is unlikely to last more than a few days and snow melts instantly due to the longer daylight hours. 

March 2013??? Almost as bad as saying snaw in November is no good.. and i bet if it snaw was to fall outside your so called winter you would be outside enjoying it?

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3 minutes ago, More Snow said:

March 2013???

 

9 minutes ago, snowray said:

Forget March, It regularly snows in May in Scotland, even in June it can still snow...Right I'm moving. ?

Or Southern Italy might be a good bet, 2/3 meters of snow in the winter and 40c in the summer.

 

Anyway, London ensembles on the 18z are still showing that cooling trend after mid month.:oldsmile:

graphe_ens3.gif

Not only southern Italy, anywhere east from the UK would be fine. Istanbul is known to receive some pretty impressive snowfalls and they are regular too. Or the Bulgarian black sea coast, the sea has even frozen over before and temps below -10C are common in winter.

Funny how Scotland is so far north, yet our winters are considerably milder than even the southern Balkans for example.

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Oh ok then ?, same rubbish each night it’s getting boring mate 

if it’s that bad why not just log off and forget about it 

You have a problem with people saying it how it is. Those ensembles are mediocre, end of ?

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30 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Everyone wants 2009 or 2010 again - simple fact is those where 1/100 years winters. I suspect if you came back in 30 days time this post wouldn't ring true.

Yes that would be great to get a decent freeze going but I think most on here would be happy to see a few snow flurries as things stand right now.

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29 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I do hope you are correct. I am in my mid forties and most of the best winters I have experienced came before I reached 20. Apart from 09/10, the winters since Feb 91 have been absolutely dire. 

The best events around here remain 1987 and 1991, in my lifetime anyway. 1984/5 was ok too.

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

You have a problem with people saying it how it is. Those ensembles are mediocre, end of ?

Not at all, if they always hover around 5c, how come that mean goes from 10c to about 3c start to finish ? The other members , if you pay attention to the graph has a tight cluster that goes noticeably colder at the end. That’s quite significant.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes that would be great to get a decent freeze going but I think most on here would be happy to see a few snow flurries as things stand right now.

I'd be happy just to see some sun, weather has been so grey and monotonous recently.

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Yes that would be great to get a decent freeze going but I think most on here would be happy to see a few snow flurries as things stand right now.

It has been an absolutely dismal winter thus far. Not one flake yet. Feels very late 90's unfortunately. 

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not at all, if they always hover around 5c, how come that mean goes from 10c to about 3c start to finish ? The other members , if you pay attention to the graph has a tight cluster that goes noticeably colder at the end. That’s quite significant.

 

 

The bar is set very low due to the starting point. 

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4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Ec monthly’s - best I can currently do which leaves feb and March pretty difficult to call for us .....January will need a decent last third of the month to our nw to be right 

83546AA3-0BE8-4399-AE1D-0450AC532B14.thumb.jpeg.e6bd745df6ca6e6793172f3fc6cd5fe1.jpeg D16EA278-AE3D-49B2-90A5-C1010978B259.thumb.jpeg.1c865a704901474e0f6d1a6ecdca7d16.jpeg BDBC7587-651B-4B76-B4B1-09730C649616.thumb.jpeg.9e355218c57a3b0eef949ef507077032.jpeg

Have these just been updated?

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14 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

 

Funny how Scotland is so far north, yet our winters are considerably milder than even the southern Balkans for example.

Not that strange to be honest. The Balkans have a continental climate and are on a similar latitude to many parts of the US that also get a lot of snow in winter. If a cold N/NE’rly blows towards the Balkans, there is no moderating influence such as a relatively warm body of water like the Atlantic or the North Sea. 

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28 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

 

Not only southern Italy, anywhere east from the UK would be fine. Istanbul is known to receive some pretty impressive snowfalls and they are regular too. Or the Bulgarian black sea coast, the sea has even frozen over before and temps below -10C are common in winter.

Funny how Scotland is so far north, yet our winters are considerably milder than even the southern Balkans for example.

Not when you take into consideration the fact that Scotland (along with the rest of the UK) is on the edge of a large ocean whereas the Balkans are part of a continental landmass. 

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43 minutes ago, More Snow said:

March 2013??? Almost as bad as saying snaw in November is no good.. and i bet if it snaw was to fall outside your so called winter you would be outside enjoying it?

Exactly....if we got a repeat of March 13 or March 18 this year, very few would be complaining. The snow thawed over a few days in March just gone due to change in weather pattern with higher dew points and rain. If the cold easterlies had held on for several more days so would the snow such were the accumulations that fell in many places. Yes an inch of snow will thaw much quicker in mid March than mid December but then it is often easier to get better synoptics to deliver decent snow events later in the season than in December, purely based on history....

Anyhow the ensembles continue to move in the right direction and the SSW has still to show it's full hand so still good chance of snowy weather turning up later in Jan and through Feb before we even have to worry about March .....

If you run through the Feb 18 archived charts after the SSW there was a 2 to 3 week spell of mundane and sometimes unsettled weather before things started to fall in to place for later in the month. No gaurantees, but we could just be now going through the 2019 mundane spell before the fun starts later in Jan... 

Edited by Bottled Snow
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I'm still very optimistic regarding a cold winter this year. At least we aren't in our normal, repetitious Atlantic grey grind winter weather pattern, far from it. Some exciting events happening above our heads and I'm bloody excited to see what happens however it turns out. Nice to be here to share it with you all.

 

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3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

It has been an absolutely dismal winter thus far. Not one flake yet. Feels very late 90's unfortunately. 

Personally I don’t think it’s been too bad. Lots of foggy, cold crisp mornings, and not that much in the way of disruptive bad weather.

2013/14 would take some beating. I could never tire of stressing how utterly dire that winter was. 

But at times, be careful what you wish for. The beast from the east was amazing, but also very unpleasant, especially if you have to work outdoors. That easterly wind was truly perishing, and having to lift and work with metal objects in a -15 windchill really was not fun at all. 

In the meantime, it seems that the downwelling of the SSW is being picked up and signalled by most of the models now. The end of the month could well look very different to now. 

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Very cold GFS leading to a very good FI beyond it. Still to far in FI to think it may happen but signs of that very cold late Jan picking up as the PV finally looks like breaking.

18th now looks like the time all things start, but I still feel this may come forward a day or two. Good start to the day. 

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Edited by Ali1977
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