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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Message added by phil nw.

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3 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

I don't know why people are getting so annoyed. It's only 5th January, we still have until the end of March at least for the cold and snow we are desperate for. The models are showing that things are going to change, it will just take time. Remain positive people and the snow will come to us eventually!

Maybe even April for some of us 😉

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Just now, damianslaw said:

Heights building to the north, courtesy of the long lasting effects of the SSW, and a much deeper sharper trough digging SSE, allowing heights to build in behind -  might not be true arctic high extensive blocking, but sufficient build of heights to enable trough disruption and slider lows, with potential for more significant blocking in time..

Are you thinking around day 10 are after as there looked to be hope day 7 on ECM if that wedge of heights could amplify more..

ECM1-168 (2).gif

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image.thumb.png.6bcd12a096f4668af4da71c15c96b6e3.png

Always defer to minds greater than my own.. good rebuttal on twitter re saying i used the term VP 'Anomalies' incorrectly - challenged as these are not anomalies, but looking like canonical phase 1 by week 2. What I was trying to highlight was the shredded nature of the blocking in week 2 so apologies if misconstrued.. Dangers of looking at lagged impacts at same time as actual OLR.

Edited by lorenzo
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The 18z GFS shows perfectly how high pressure can build to our north. Of course it's along way off but if we see consistency along the 18z lines over the next couple of days it could be the start of the SSW effecting the model outputs. 

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4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Are you thinking around day 10 are after as there looked to be hope day 7 on ECM if that wedge of heights could amplify more..

ECM1-168 (2).gif

Day 10 is the 15 January, I am thinking sometime between 18-21st, the building blocks will set up there stall to the colder evolution thereafter, (reason why I say 8-9th, which brings this period into the semi-reliable), before then, northerly shots order of the day, potential potent one at some stage.

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12 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

I don't know why people are getting so annoyed. It's only 5th January, we still have until the end of March at least for the cold and snow we are desperate for. The models are showing that things are going to change, it will just take time. Remain positive people and the snow will come to us eventually!

I personally would prefer that it didn't snow at the end of March or even April, Dec-Feb is winter, but I won't be in the slightest bit surprised to see another late winter and cold early spring.

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3 minutes ago, snowray said:

I personally would prefer that it didn't snow at the end of March or even April, Dec-Feb is winter, but I won't be in the slightest bit surprised to see another late winter and cold early spring.

Instant ban... lol... Snaw is Snaw no matter what the month.. now go wash ye mouth out with soap...😂😉😂

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There’s your first slider right there folks at only 360hrs 👍572D22DA-639A-478F-A170-D7BB585CC836.thumb.png.14425d5b83d1e38f6cfd6c58abc64caa.png683F8BA1-53E2-4587-BE99-ADF8F02B2488.thumb.png.cfd4bebb6b751b3740c530ac8fc12265.png7652192D-8FE8-4944-8979-0DE3FA669343.thumb.png.169ec4c9923ebf825a5451e6e7fbdfb0.png

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2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

There’s your first slider right there folks at only 360hrs 👍572D22DA-639A-478F-A170-D7BB585CC836.thumb.png.14425d5b83d1e38f6cfd6c58abc64caa.png683F8BA1-53E2-4587-BE99-ADF8F02B2488.thumb.png.cfd4bebb6b751b3740c530ac8fc12265.png7652192D-8FE8-4944-8979-0DE3FA669343.thumb.png.169ec4c9923ebf825a5451e6e7fbdfb0.png

A perfectly plausible synoptic at such timescales, fits in nicely with projected expectations, provided the effects of the SSW and MJO play ball. 

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12 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

I don't know why people are getting so annoyed. It's only 5th January, we still have until the end of March at least for the cold and snow we are desperate for. The models are showing that things are going to change, it will just take time. Remain positive people and the snow will come to us eventually!

November - Remember guys, it's not even winter yet!
December - We rarely get snow in December anyway
January - It's only January!

I'm only messing 😁 I do like optimism but I understand why people are getting annoyed. I think eye candy charts in FI are part of the problem. We all know they're very, very, very unlikely to verify but they sort of give you hope in an illogical way. You might as well ask a toddler to get his crayons out. I think if you stick to the medium term charts, it's much harder to be disappointed. 

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1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:

November - Remember guys, it's not even winter yet!
December - We rarely get snow in December anyway
January - It's only January!

I'm only messing 😁 I do like optimism but I understand why people are getting annoyed. I think eye candy charts in FI are part of the problem. We all know they're very, very, very unlikely to verify but they sort of give you hope in an illogical way. You might as well ask a toddler to get his crayons out. I think if you stick to the medium term charts, it's much harder to be disappointed. 

you forgot February= longer days so snaw is pointless.

March= only good if you live in Scotland.

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This is quite frankly turning out to be one of the worse winters I can remember. We have 3/4 weeks to receive a half decent cold spell and still very little on the horizon.

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1 minute ago, Shere Khan said:

We have 3/4 weeks to receive a half decent cold spell and still very little on the horizon.

Sheer 'something'! Shere Khan!

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1 minute ago, Shere Khan said:

This is quite frankly turning out to be one of the worse winters I can remember. We have 3/4 weeks to receive a half decent cold spell and still very little on the horizon.

may i suggest you go back to the jungle...we have at the very least 10 weeks of winter left. yes im including March in that.

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27 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 lets see what the 18z GEFS churn out perhaps a BOOM chart within them? 🤞

P14 (still finishing) tempresult_xcg3.thumb.gif.1706ffd013374021c67109fd885f8856.gif tempresult_bao7.thumb.gif.c98370e7a2c24ad57e11c445c7faba17.gif tempresult_afs7.thumb.gif.7d8e25c264b4f7c4a3f022e95d62823b.gif boom-comic-pop-art-plastic-sign_a-G-9907940-9201595.thumb.jpg.f054f2c454f733e8aabca967eddd9a98.jpg giphy.gif 

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2 minutes ago, Shere Khan said:

This is quite frankly turning out to be one of the worse winters I can remember. We have 3/4 weeks to receive a half decent cold spell and still very little on the horizon.

As poor this winter has been so far (only one or two frosts I think, not even a snowflake), it is a damn sight better than 2013/14 when we had endless amounts of wind and rain. 

At least we have some great potential for the 2nd half of winter, mid month onwards hopefully. That alone makes it better than many other winters when there wasn’t even a possible light at the end of the tunnel. 

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5 minutes ago, Shere Khan said:

This is quite frankly turning out to be one of the worse winters I can remember. We have 3/4 weeks to receive a half decent cold spell and still very little on the horizon.

Hertfordshire - the snow capital of the world - lets have some optimism.

image.thumb.png.adad49fe641c317d1ccbfa09437186b9.png

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2 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Everyone wants 2009 or 2010 again - simple fact is those where 1/100 years winters. I suspect if you came back in 30 days time this post wouldn't ring true.

I do hope you are correct. I am in my mid forties and most of the best winters I have experienced came before I reached 20. Apart from 09/10, the winters since Feb 91 have been absolutely dire. 

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9 minutes ago, Shere Khan said:

This is quite frankly turning out to be one of the worse winters I can remember. We have 3/4 weeks to receive a half decent cold spell and still very little on the horizon.

I must have imagined last March then 

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7 minutes ago, Shere Khan said:

This is quite frankly turning out to be one of the worse winters I can remember. We have 3/4 weeks to receive a half decent cold spell and still very little on the horizon.

It has been terrible so far. But when you say 3-4 weeks left, are you expecting the world to end or something? I suppose it will for some people if nothing happens between now and the deadline (mid April I'd imagine)

 

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1 minute ago, danm said:

As poor this winter has been so far (only one or two frosts I think, not even a snowflake), it is a damn sight better than 2013/14 when we had endless amounts of wind and rain. 

At least we have some great potential for the 2nd half of winter, mid month onwards hopefully. That alone makes it better than many other winters when there wasn’t even a possible light at the end of the tunnel. 

Again i guess it all comes down to location. ive had 1 snaw day that left me with laying snaw for 4 days in December and this week alone 4 hard frosts with -6c over night, with plenty of others that ive not counted. now im pretty sure many folk in the southern half of the UK would take that each and every winter and be happy with it, but once again this is the hunt for blizzards thread.

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a few other GEFS charts

gensnh-5-1-384.thumb.png.172c29652392fde9d87efc495604bcf7.pnggens-5-0-384.thumb.png.2cb52d6d8f3929f5ded1e2a8c09800c2.pnggens-1-0-384.thumb.png.04d3fcb5736cc3637af6ec29fb096e77.png  

1_cFdDQIVhYLeLa2jEB3ozfg.thumb.png.656a96168740d27ddc4bf879bd902b1c.png with these kinds of charts please GEFS (and other models) 🙏

 

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Just look at all the high pressure over  Arctic its a matter of time before we see some lovely  charts for U.K. Re cold snowy weather ...

IMG_0014.PNG

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