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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
53 minutes ago, snowray said:

It's just so annoying Blue, I mean we were looking good for a half decent northerly 2 days ago, then the low ends up close to 1,000km to our east, this has been happening since I can remember the shifting of northerlies to our east. When cold air is blasting south into the Atlantic it never shifts even 200 miles west towards us, why is that?

Everywhere cold in Europe, apart from us.:olddoh:

ECM0-120.gif

ECM0-144.gif

You could call it the Brrr-exit. 

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Just now, lorenzo said:

image.thumb.png.1fca252e9d4105a7525874d37e0a161f.png

NH Vortex profile beginning to look a little bedraggled...

Things starting to look really good, i think its going to be a sudden snap moment in the output and all the cards are going to fall in place. the last 1/2 of winter 18/19 is going to go down in folk law and live long in the memory, something to tell the grandchildren about..BRING ME MY SNAW!!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
4 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

image.thumb.png.1fca252e9d4105a7525874d37e0a161f.png

NH Vortex profile beginning to look a little bedraggled...

And even better, what's left of the PV is nearly all to our northeast.  

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

For me, the question here is are we just drifting into the cool zonal and then nw Euro trough beyond the 18th/20th or are we still expecting a change to crop up in the meantime as the reversal wave works down in about a weeks time .... will that transitional period (14/20th)  see more neg interference to the flow forcing it further south and seeing wedges of higher heights causing snowfall opportunities across the whole country rather than just the northern half ??. 

As the reversal works down wouldn’t it be logical to see some westwards corrections in the outputs and more amplification upstream . 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

As the reversal works down wouldn’t it be logical to see some westwards corrections in the outputs and more amplification upstream . 

The reversal appears to co incide with a predicted strongly mobile period .... that’s why I would expect to see small ridges in the flow become wedges and force some disruption of incoming troughs 

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Well the lack of comment on the pub run can mean only one thing...... yep folk in here have learnt to wait till the end of the run before the knee jerk reactions etc... either that or its just dung...lol

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Another poor gfs run for cold.

Just as well we were advised it's a rubbish model!!....bottom 5 etc. Here's hoping the ssw will start showing soon.

Of course the form is to vanish for a few days when the models are poor..

 

Change the record please.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
38 minutes ago, Rambo said:

So fingers crossed the weather as usual does the opposite of what you predict   (meant in jest of course)

Lol Dec was a bust re ongoing but a few short surprises....but main thrust shunted well east.  But this month is very much now on track....but I fear the shunt east again as a precaution 

 

 

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Another poor gfs run for cold.

Just as well we were advised it's a rubbish model!!....bottom 5 etc. Here's hoping the ssw will start showing soon.

Of course the form is to vanish for a few days when the models are poor..

 

Point laboured I would suggest!  Anyway, onto the 18z and once again we're seeing some 'wedge action' around the 19th of the month.

image.thumb.png.72353a558f1f1ae4fdd7ed503d3bf1a5.png

Definitely something to keep an eye on.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I've said it will be around 8-9th before we begin to see more concerted defined output showing a more sustained colder interlude with at least heights to our north (of some sort to begin with), within the semi-reliable, i.e. out to 10 days, so expect another 2-3 days of varying output between GFS and ECM in particular, the fomrmer, flip flopping all over the place, the latter holding firm with a much more amplified flow in the near-term, indicative of the change to a more conducive base state for the northern blocking.

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
30 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

As the reversal works down wouldn’t it be logical to see some westwards corrections in the outputs and more amplification upstream . 

 

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The reversal appears to co incide with a predicted strongly mobile period .... that’s why I would expect to see small ridges in the flow become wedges and force some disruption of incoming troughs 

Like that nick .....could it happen sooner than that is the question ???

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I must be missing something... 18z looks great to me if it’s HLB you want to see developing ... ?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I've said it will be around 8-9th before we begin to see more concerted defined output showing a more sustained colder interlude with at least heights to our north (of some sort to begin with), within the semi-reliable, i.e. out to 10 days, so expect another 2-3 days of varying output between GFS and ECM in particular, the fomrmer, flip flopping all over the place, the latter holding firm with a much more amplified flow in the near-term, indicative of the change to a more conducive base state for the northern blocking.

 

So is the Nothern blocking going to be powered by SSW are MJO signal that looks to be in circle of death in the next few days cause I'm losing faith in this now.

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yet another stunning post from @lorenzo as ever alongside many other brilliant and well constructed posts in here the last few days, it is such a shame that so many fail to read and understand but instead continue with the pedantic and often petty snipping and back stabbing. ive been on here for many a year and i for one am grateful for all the hard work and massive effort that many put in to each and every winter, trying to educate the rest of us while many of us seem to not want to listen i for one am happy to sit here and watch the different angles and ideas from all the regulars and the ones that put so much effort in to try to explain what is happening etc, so they may not always be correct and often are proven wrong by the weather that will do just as it wants not what they think it will, but at the very least these people come back every year to try and keep on trying. the one thing that sadly does grind my gears is the never ending line of folk ready to shoot down these members as soon as it looks like they may be a day out or possibly wrong totally, well i would like to see others put themselves out there with predictions etc rather than jumping on others. anyways enough of my rambling, lets just all try to get on with each other a bit more and save the other crap for another time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Much better JMA this evening.

JN264-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

Watching the GFS with its bias / keenness for developing low pressures in the latter stages can be frustrating tenor.gif?itemid=7892693 and this might look average at best  gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.da18ad8a2aecb7d97f934769471db6b6.png

 

but those above average heights are heading into more favourable areas for a blocked pattern to develop (phase 7 MJO type pattern?) gfsnh-12-384.thumb.png.558908cb64b542d09c4570d702cf3d75.png

 lets see what the 18z GEFS churn out perhaps a BOOM chart within them? 

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

I don't know why people are getting so annoyed. It's only 5th January, we still have until the end of March at least for the cold and snow we are desperate for. The models are showing that things are going to change, it will just take time. Remain positive people and the snow will come to us eventually!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
9 minutes ago, booferking said:

So is the Nothern blocking going to be powered by SSW are MJO signal that looks to be in circle of death in the next few days cause I'm losing faith in this now.

Heights building to the north, courtesy of the long lasting effects of the SSW, and a much deeper sharper trough digging SSE, allowing heights to build in behind -  might not be true arctic high extensive blocking, but sufficient build of heights to enable trough disruption and slider lows, with potential for more significant blocking in time.. A set up incidentally far more conducive to disruptive widespread frontal snow, than an easterly.

Edited by damianslaw
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3 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

I don't know why people are getting so annoyed. It's only 5th January, we still have until the end of March at least for the cold and snow we are desperate for. The models are showing that things are going to change, it will just take time. Remain positive people and the snow will come to us eventually!

Maybe even April for some of us 

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Just now, damianslaw said:

Heights building to the north, courtesy of the long lasting effects of the SSW, and a much deeper sharper trough digging SSE, allowing heights to build in behind -  might not be true arctic high extensive blocking, but sufficient build of heights to enable trough disruption and slider lows, with potential for more significant blocking in time..

Are you thinking around day 10 are after as there looked to be hope day 7 on ECM if that wedge of heights could amplify more..

ECM1-168 (2).gif

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