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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    ECM looking v similar to UKMO at 120.

    DB4DAFE5-C02E-4B29-8AA6-705552159954.thumb.png.fc703597be5a7cd52359f8e1772a397b.png

    A1748047-8135-4155-9D7F-DB4C7B26168D.thumb.gif.4ecfee3a60949a124286dc3c8ba3feee.gif

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl

    My hunch is we are going to have a near miss winter with the coldest air continuing to plague Central and Southern Europe, that’s my prediction,,,keep me in mind with my comment. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
    11 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    That sounds like Fergie-talk to me.

    Edit - oops just catching up and seen the forum detectives had already worked that out!

    no, no, it was all me....really.....I did a phd in meteorology on the side when I did my school work experience and YTS at bracknell......they paid me an extortionate amount of money (£1.20 hour IIRC) and I repay them by providing them with all the latest & future tech weather forecasting........damn, I'm good ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters
  • Location: Huddersfield
    7 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    My hunch is we are going to have a near miss winter with the coldest air continuing to plague Central and Southern Europe, that’s my prediction,,,keep me in mind with my comment. ?

    That sounds like a normal uk winter. Just looking at the ecm 120 you can see the PV almost destroyed hardly any of it left over Greenland,

     http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

     

    And then the 144 came out and went a bit flat ?

    Edited by Paul White.
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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    7 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    My hunch is we are going to have a near miss winter with the coldest air continuing to plague Central and Southern Europe, that’s my prediction,,,keep me in mind with my comment. ?

    Bookmarked, when we are all a few feet under snow I’ll bump it ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Lovely 168 ECM

    99B61095-8BD2-452E-B4A9-466C60670CB3.png

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    ECM looking good

    FFC85066-36F0-4A78-8E8A-53F1C23EC864.thumb.png.760e842fb69db783d9f91cbc03a687a0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM T 168, liking this

    image.thumb.jpg.114b194c7ebc28b5b5d949988a3137df.jpg

    If cross polar flow is to be the outcome, this direction looks good!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Location: Hampshire
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T 168, liking this

    image.thumb.jpg.114b194c7ebc28b5b5d949988a3137df.jpg

    If cross polar flow is to be the outcome, this direction looks good!

    I’ll be digging out the bobble hat and shovel in readiness

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    20 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    as I have said before I am not overly knowledgeable when it comes to the MJO but here are some other charts 

    Phase 7 January 

    JanENMJOphase7all500mb.thumb.gif.e3fd6ae7ae9139f4c8e45d4d1da27122.gifJanuaryPhase7All500mb.thumb.gif.0079d42d2457b827e2510b378852855f.gif http://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_9bbcf411b167ba537e629659eacd304a.pdf and nada which means weak or no signal regarding enso (el nino or la nina) 

    nada_7_gen_ok.thumb.png.6c4aa0aa6e7304df60063ca4be133f2c.png

    Phase 8 January 

    JanENMJOphase8all500mb.thumb.gif.09d512c698996ff08f9b0319655dc8cc.gifJanuaryPhase8All500mb.thumb.gif.8a2691d575dd8e716985a1c48ad254ea.gif http://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/31d9e0_3c062d439cb841d2eea3ea174256642b.pdf and again (nada, weak or no el nino / la nina signal)

    nada_8_gen_mid.thumb.png.5eebf739d103e099d771e2f6be879035.png majority of these look pretty good for increasing our chances of blocked and colder

     

     

     

    It cannot be argued that we are in a weak El Niño rather than neutral enso. 

    Whether other factors skew the analogue repsonse is another matter .....

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Amazing differences at day 7 between the ECM and GFS.

    Let the next model drama begin! 

    Once again handling of shortwave energy vastly different , the ECM holds some of that back . The GFS piles the whole lot east as it’s flatter upstream .

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    Amazing differences at day 7 between the ECM and GFS.

    Let the next model drama begin! 

    Never saw that 168 coming?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Ec polar field looks different day 7 to previous run

    re gfs ...... hopefully the para will improve its reputation ......I take it far more seriously than i used to but it’s vital to have context when viewing any model output 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    Amazing differences at day 7 between the ECM and GFS.

    Let the next model drama begin! 

    There were a few GEFS that brought the PM air in quicker than the op..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    Ec polar field looks different day 7 to previous run

    re gfs ...... hopefully the para will improve its reputation ......I take it far more seriously than i used to but it’s vital to have context when viewing any model output 

    Better or worse Blue?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Ec polar field looks different day 7 to previous run

    re gfs ...... hopefully the para will improve its reputation ......I take it far more seriously than i used to but it’s vital to have context when viewing any model output 

    Better or worse Blue?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Better or worse Blue?

    looks better but the evolution in the Atlantic sector remains consistent with previous op 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    Ec polar field looks different day 7 to previous run

    re gfs ...... hopefully the para will improve its reputation ......I take it far more seriously than i used to but it’s vital to have context when viewing any model output 

    Better or worse Blue?

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    47 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Thats no problem-

    Im just a bit more critical & non PC than Ian ??..

    Anyway im off out -

    Eyes down for the ECM

    last 2 days 192 > 168 have reduced the zonal flow & been more amplified  will 144 follow 'ukmo' suit...

    I’m just chilling at home watching BBC2 (catch me if you can) sounds very similar to what the UKMO is saying to the GFS ?

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    So sorry for the duplicate posts im at work on my fone and its being silly!

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
    Just now, Weathizard said:

    Flattened again but much like the GFS looks primed for day 10+

    FF1BBC10-B39F-46B9-8E50-9D573C872F8E.png

    The best trend i'm seeing is the Azores high staying away from the UK!

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    So sorry for the duplicate posts im at work on my fone and its being silly!

    You can say that again ?

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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