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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Some snow showers in the east as early as a week tomorrow according to ECM 

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    59A70EBE-6995-45C9-A209-F4F2A6BFCFAC.png

    Very light in nature though, a few pellets of Graupel probably.

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    Nice. Is anyone going to moan about this? ? And re: ignoring the GFS, quite clearly the current op is outdated and shouldn't be taken as seriously as its newer replacement the FV3 or the other major models. Pretty simple concept really. 

    ECM1-168 (3).gif

    ECM0-168.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ECM 168 

    -9c Into Eastern side of Scotland

    -7c into London ...

    Better than the last Northerly clipper still need to move everything few hundred miles westwards.

    gfsnh-2019010100-0-6.png

    ECH1-144.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    looking at the 850 winds, you wouldn't expect ec to undercut next frame

    also, the downwelling wav doesn't make it past the pole (yesterdays 12z did which caused so much excitement)

    without the undercut, a scandi ridge looks unlikely

    without the wave getting past the pole, a greeny high looks unlikely

    ergo, MLB sustains …..hopefully not too flat by day 10 ……….

    EDIT: and that's why you should never anticipate the run ?

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

    It is not a junk model and during winter seems to have an edge over EC, it is true that it is flat, flatter than the other models but unfortunately it turns out to be right more often than not 

    Its just the amount of Information it bring out everyday , it can get very confusing in the main thread ... 1 Gfs run can wipe out an ECM run in the thread , even though ECM might be on to something , id rather have a separate thread to discuss the merits of the ECM /UKMO rather than have to guess a randam page number after 2 good/bad have filled the forum with comments based on what 1 GFS run throws out. 

    Edited by BlackburnChris
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    The ECM & UKMO are very very close, ECM has the most vertical profile over the atlantic so will be the most amplified at 168-

    However its not totally about the amplitude of the wave, more about the undercutting capability ( dont forget the plucky ICON 12z )

    You mean it is a Turkey? ?

     

    Well let's hope ECM has this nailed because if so Winter is coming

    ECH1-192.GIF?02-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    240 could be a stonker though, could go either way but its a possibility.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    1 minute ago, Mucka said:

    You mean it is a Turkey? ?

     

    Well let's hope ECM has this nailed because if so Winter is coming

    ECH1-192.GIF?02-0

    no lol gfs has its merits as well , juat would rather be able to discuss them separately

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC is a vast improvement on this morning- its also very cold at the surface as the core high is further north -

    We were here at 12z yesterday though and the ens farted in its general direction of travel..

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Not bad at day 7 . A bit more amplitude upstream and we could get the high further north before the topple towards Scandi .

    Like this Nick?

    image.thumb.png.1260d21803c995e948d2809d102b0285.pngimage.thumb.png.332e6fbd19a287e34de1b5dc91a21704.png

    EDIT: We could do with a bit less pressure on the HP from the NW!

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    i didn't notice the nose of ridging dropped ay day 7 over finland - these small nodes of arctic ridging are going to be important where they meet ridging from the mid lats and seem very variable, run to run

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    If we can overcome the first hurdle then there could be a nice surprise next week .

    However until we’re certain that there won’t be a phasing issue between low and shortwave earlier on then my ear muffs and rather dashing scarf shall remain un opened !

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    i didn't notice the nose of ridging dropped ay day 7 over finland - these small nodes of arctic ridging are going to be important where they meet ridging from the mid lats and seem very variable, run to run

    Blue, is the ridge thrown up around t+120 timescale before or because of the expected mjo phase 7 ?

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    If we can overcome the first hurdle then there could be a nice surprise next week .

    However until we’re certain that there won’t be a phasing issue between low and shortwave earlier on then my ear muffs and rather dashing scarf shall remain un opened !

    Yes - Just remember though we have the 2 best models ( euros ) v the rest of the lower resolution ones - that would indicate energy seperation issues along a poorly defined grid...

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    Yes - Just remember though we have the 2 best models ( euros ) v the rest of the lower resolution ones - that would indicate energy seperation issues along a poorly defined grid...

    True but I won’t sleep till the key part is within a closer timeframe ! I’m getting stressed now because I can see good things happening if we just get a bit of luck earlier on . I admire your confidence Steve . Give me another day and the trend the same and I’ll join you .

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    If your preference is dry cold, perhaps very cold frosty weather EC det is for you .. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

    things  are looking interesting  about  jan 16 if the gfs  is  right

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    gfs-2-360.png

    gfs-2-372.png

    gfs-2-384.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Well if the Ecm is correct   a good few days of cold temperatures  with a easterly of sorts  setting in over the last few frames.   Onto the ens for some clarification. 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Easterly drift for the south

    image.thumb.png.bfeac59bc73280f38654a861f588b601.pngimage.thumb.png.5de1af4073ba6ca1be5b78a3f2037e86.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I feel the first ridge will collapse over us then we wait for the next wave to hopefully get pulled up towards Greenland. 

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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