Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, vizzy2004 said:

GFS one of the mildest compared to its ensembles at day 7/8. Poss more upgrades to come in the shorter term?

graphe3_0000_294_5___.gif

Image above for eastern North Yorkshire.

An interesting graph!

Looks like a good number bring the pm air into play much quicker than the op- even the op does eventually push the PM air through and the attendant Atlantic height rises thereafter..

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

You must be new here ?

lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thats why the Metoffice ignore the GFS.

S

Errr UKMO do NOT ignore GFS. Not sure where you get that idea from...

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Not Quite right

The GFS on the 21st December at T384 was showing raging zonality and SW Winds with Dartboard lows for the 3-5th January 

I saved the images which are on my other laptop, will post them later when the little un has finished with the lappy

Erm what do you expect for T384.

For a laugh are there any verification stats for that far out anywhere? ?

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, lamppost watcher said:

But you have to agree, when Steve says the gfs will do this or that because of its bias, more often than not he is usually correct

The problem with this whole GFS vs METO vs ECM debate is that its not as simplistic as is stated on either side of the argument and yet again we see belittling of others views (not you to be fair).

GFS does verify slightly less well than some of the other models, but GFS gives us more data. So, the GFS opp might be a little bit less reliable the METO / ECM but with GFS we get too see a control run and 20 GEFS. This allows context and is important because its from there we get confidence or otherwise in the output. So, tonight we see a poor opp run for cold but by 180ish hours 5 GEFS go for a cold northerly and another 5 are not bad at all. This tells us that there is scope for improvement in the mid term. For this forum I'd contend that this extra info compensates for the slightly lower verification. If we were comparing ECM plus all ensembles with GFS plus all ensembles then its a slightly different argument, but ECM don't let us see these until later and METO give us naff all.

If people want to ignore the GFS so be it but its their loss and they shouldn't be disparaging about contrary views. I'm suspicious of ECM when it shows easterlies at range, but I don't ignore it.

 

 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, The PIT said:

Erm what do you expect for T384.

For a laugh are there any verification stats for that far out anywhere? ?

Its got less than a 0.3 skill score.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Its got less than a 0.3 skill score.

That much it must have had a good day. Yeh if you take T384 as Gospel you're just as likely to think the Moon landing was faked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Erm what do you expect for T384.

For a laugh are there any verification stats for that far out anywhere? ?

Yh ok was being flippant ?

GFS really should not go out further than 10 days anyways imho

Just wish this Slug would do one now tbh, endless cloudy days seem to be getting everyone down

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Purplepixii said:

Errr UKMO do NOT ignore GFS. Not sure where you get that idea from...

Liam Dutton.

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Wheres my day 6 comparison post gone???

The Slug of the high got hungry and ate it?

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS P - for Primed. 

E7953E74-515D-4D92-A1D0-41D7E6C2A5AB.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Happy with those, lots of members between -5 to -10c from around day 8 onwards, there's even one member pretending to be cat in FI which is usually a precursor to a cold spell.

graphe3_1000_291_6___.gif

7 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Mean while ive got an incredibly itchy bottom.... just about as on topic as many other posts in here tonight. jeez its hard work.

Sorry to hear that mate hope you get well soon.

Edited by vizzy2004
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

- No but seriously

whats the point of spending 10 mins to create a post that can then be reviewed for model accuracy for it to be removed.

Did the post, post?  I've checked & None of your content has been taken off Steve..

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks

Jo

 

Will repost.

Edited by Steve Murr
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

- No but seriously

whats the point of spending 10 mins to create a post that can then be reviewed for model accuracy for it to be removed.

All sorts off rubbish going on in this thread today!!and now one of your brilliant posts have been removed aswell now!!as if it couldnt get any worse!!gfs p looking okay up to 204 hours!!!very similar to the op run!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

for god sake, how about some people actually discussing the model outputs rather than all the bum-licking/sniping/arguing that goes on in here...For so called 'grown up adults' posting in here, there are some disturbingly good impressions of 5 year olds ?

AJ quote at its finest. ? And yes, it's only the weather. No talk of walls, Brexit, beer or kebabs, just fun in the netweather forum asylum. All eyes on the ECM will which likely go against the odds and return to normal predictions come Monday.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...