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phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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2 hours ago, Tony Beets said:

Look at the arctic high, getting stronger with each day that goes by. Up to 1040 now!!!B8710D27-C2EA-49CB-B0E1-37A0E5EA65C9.thumb.png.5e2c1e4145c7b597f0734546410a6f53.png

It's a beauty Tony. Do you see it maintaining that and if so what would the implications mean? 

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Just now, nick sussex said:

You’re beginning to sound like Wenger ! 😁

I will take your advise and come back renewed ! I’ll give it a few more days .  Apologies to those that think the dog chewed up my winning Euromillions ticket !

 

 

Nick, you dont have to apologize to anyone, your input and knowledge are invaluable!

And of course i share the frustration, prob by mid Jan the vast majority will still have not seen a snowflake! 

I honestly believe we are on 'countdown' now, by early next week we will be in a much better place outlook wise..(If we aren't i will be the first to whine and whinge)!

😁

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2 weeks time looks better to me, and when models pick up more of the SSW signal we’ll see improving charts. Big swings still very possible from day 10 

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1 hour ago, Rapodo said:

Can someone explain to me why the 0z runs ALWAYS backtrack only for it to improve throughout the day? This always seems to happen. Is it lack of overnight data or what? Or is it the 0z is actually the more accurate run that we should just stick to for sanity sakes?

I can remember the same thing happening last season.. Great afternoon and evening runs but the early morning runs would always downgrade only to upgrade again later that day...  Strange.. 😐

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How this actually plays out unknown

the individual gefs are a bit of a mess

i would suggest peturbs 5/7/16 are a decent stab at what may happen beyond day 10, given current extended ens guidance and the state of where we seem to be headed by day 10 

gefs and gems 11/16  T2 temp anoms ............the gems used to be quite conservative on temps but I think model has upgraded since last winter ...

C4204DE4-F970-47CA-959D-0FB088B51C0C.thumb.jpeg.1cae1feda74e9d85f80d01d7d99648dc.jpeg  2DD36C61-908A-4819-8666-DADB5E09CF2E.thumb.jpeg.3a92c24a4b8de6d05e6a9ddd000d2639.jpeg

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Far more mobile weather from the 15th with the High slipping south.

That's the biggest problem we have and whist we may get a cold day or two we need shut of the High in the Atlantic south west of us.

 

No sign of that happening .

Tiger

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Posted (edited)

Well IT seems reluctant to arrive or even show any intention of arriving judging from some of the posts over the past 24 hours.

Will it arrive, if so when. Above my pay grade that.

Just 2 or 3 links to see what you think about what the upper atmosphere seems to be suggesting.

Coldish zonal seems what the 500 mb anomaly charts suggest

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

And the 30 mb pole temperature seems to have stopped its vertical climb. So you never know we may get lucky along with the MJO helping out. Just how delayed this may be thanks to the MJO wandering around in 3 and 4 a month back remains to be seen.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast

 

 

Edited by johnholmes
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34 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just to lighten the mood for you lot back in snow starved Blighty. This picture sent by my friend from Altenmarkt, Salzburger Land this morning. The new fashion, Mask and Snorkel and yes, its still snowing . Just a short 2 hour flight away and you will be in winter wonderland. Just book it and get your fix. Its worth it. Meanwhile, here in damp mild Vancouver , they too still hunt for winter cold ! Have a good day.

C

 

49551464_2096219453777017_3920549381622726656_n.jpg

https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Radstadt/6day/mid

They expect 150cm from now until Wednesday. 

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Posted (edited)

Coldish zonal sounds good to me, this winter has been mostly benign cr*p so far..I will welcome any change that potentially increases the chances of snow!!!

Edited by Frosty.
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I’m not overly disappointed because I see any chance of sustained cold to be a bonus. As I said before, the SSW does not in any way guarantee good synoptics for the U.K. Things just keep getting pushed back. Talk of cold being odds on just isn’t helpful in terms of managing expectations.

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Btw, there is a spread chance that the system day 5 to the west of the block could cut through it se which would introduce a different evolution in the 6/9 day timeframe 

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Btw, there is a spread chance that the system day 5 to the west of the block could cut through it se which would introduce a different evolution in the 6/9 day timeframe 

Only 2 cold members from the 11th until the 14th in the de Bilt plumes however, a few more after that but only around 20% and not overly cold

 

eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

 

(click on the thumbnail to see the correct updated version) 

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44 minutes ago, TEITS said:

The change to a colder pattern via N,ly outbreaks continues to look likely from mid month. However disappointingly nothing to suggest any form of blocking will develop towards Greenland/Iceland. I always look at the Iceland SLP ensembles and these sum it up for me.

prmslReyjavic.png

Tbh Dave, the eps says no chance of sustained slp blocking .... if we are to see proper wintry conditions by day 16 then will be via wedges of heights to our north or nw ..... these don’t have to be very significant to play a role within a broad nw European trough 

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1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Only 2 cold members from the 11th until the 14th in the de Bilt plumes however, a few more after that but only around 20% and not overly cold

 

eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

 

(click on the thumbnail to see the correct updated version) 

Wasn’t necessarily meant for cold scenarios.....moreso a change to the expected evolution 

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Btw, there is a spread chance that the system day 5 to the west of the block could cut through it se which would introduce a different evolution in the 6/9 day timeframe 

Through it or under it 🤔 

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11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Tbh Dave, the eps says no chance of sustained slp blocking .... if we are to see proper wintry conditions by day 16 then will be via wedges of heights to our north or nw ..... these don’t have to be very significant to play a role within a broad nw European trough 

Is it just me or do others feel a bit underwhelmed by the effects of the SSW. In any winter we would expect the chances of cold zonality and small wedges of HP to our NW allowing for southerly tracking lows. I was hoping for some proper blocking over Greenland ...perhaps in feb lol. 

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Posted (edited)

Rather underwhelmed as well with the output...some brief northerly/north westerly shots but that's about it...normal winter fayre infact!

It's the zone of death needs obliterating - always a continuation of lows moving east south of Greenland.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Through it or under it 🤔 

Through it .....of course that leaves two parts of the high afterwards ........anyway, it’s only a 25% chance I think 

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

Is it just me or do others feel a bit underwhelmed by the effects of the SSW. In any winter we would expect the chances of cold zonality and small wedges of HP to our NW allowing for southerly tracking lows. I was hoping for some proper blocking over Greenland ...perhaps in feb lol. 

Quite, Blue doesn't sound as enthusiastic as last evening ..

I'm still optimistic but i would be lying if i didnt say we are fast approaching crunch time for mid Jan insofar as concrete signs of that horrid low anomaly to the NW 'doing one', so to speak..

Crucial couple of days incoming..

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4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is it just me or do others feel a bit underwhelmed by the effects of the SSW. In any winter we would expect the chances of cold zonality and small wedges of HP to our NW allowing for southerly tracking lows. I was hoping for some proper blocking over Greenland ...perhaps in feb lol. 

the reversal is only affecting above 75N in the trop for the time being and this manifests itself in the arctic high ......unfortunately for us that’s the other side of the pole with the vortex left this side ........

the general slow down in upper zonal flow will deliver something different for the last half of jan than the first half ..... ironically that could be a lot more mobile fo the atlantic sector ........... we will see ......pretty well everything remains on the table .....

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