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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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Posted (edited)

A bit of a downgrade this morning from the UKMO. Seems to advance the milder Atlantic air rather quicker than yesterdays 12z run and also shown on this mornings fax charts. In the short to medium term also backed up by GFS/ECM. All very frustrating for you lot as Mid-Winter approaches. Feel sad and looking for crumbs of comfort !

 C

UKMOPEU00_120_1.png

Edited by carinthian

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Posted (edited)

Can someone explain to me why the 0z runs ALWAYS backtrack only for it to improve throughout the day? This always seems to happen. Is it lack of overnight data or what? Or is it the 0z is actually the more accurate run that we should just stick to for sanity sakes?

Edited by Rapodo

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12 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

That wont be mild zonal thats for sure.

That's the type of weather I hate the most, in the Netherlands we call it water cold weather, cold but not cold but above freezing, with cold freezing rain, sleet, hail. You get soaking wet and cold unlike dry proper cold which feels a lot warmer or proper non melting snow 

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12 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

That's the type of weather I hate the most, in the Netherlands we call it water cold weather, cold but not cold but above freezing, with cold freezing rain, sleet, hail. You get soaking wet and cold unlike dry proper cold which feels a lot warmer or proper non melting snow 

No hills there that’s why 😬, I agree it won’t be great for low ground but plenty higher up - doesn’t help many on here though!! 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Can someone explain to me why the 0z runs ALWAYS backtrack only for it to improve throughout the day? This always seems to happen. Is it lack of overnight data or what? Or is it the 0z is actually the more accurate run that we should just stick to for sanity sakes?

There used to be a general consensus that the 00z and 12z were the most accurate runs. I too have noted that the mood in here is reflective of what's churned out throughout the day, morning's seem to be flat, a few embers of positivity by lunchtime with rampers in full flow in the evening...probably why JH always says to compare runs on a 12 hour basis..I.e. one 00z verses the next 00z for trends.

Edited by KTtom

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The first northerly has been downgraded over night unfortunately still time for small adjustments. The next push around mid month looks a better more potent chance. The Atlantic just won't play ball at the minute.

The ECM ends with a 1050mb Arctic high never a bad signal Screenshot_20190105-074823.thumb.png.8d05a4c26f7a4f915c6080599e815ead.png

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6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

There used to be a general consensus that the 00z and 12z were the most accurate runs. I too have noted that the mood in here is reflective of what's churned out throughout the day, morning's seem to be flat, a few embers of positivity by lunchtime with rampers in full flow in the evening...probably why JH always says to compare runs on a 12 hour basis..I.e. one 00z verses the next 00z for trends.

I think this is 100% the best way forward it keeps people's expectations grounded and stops the over ramping with evening runs that rarely materialise. Then if the same runs are actually showing the same on the 0z then it's time to ramp!

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32 minutes ago, carinthian said:

A bit of a downgrade this morning from the UKMO. Seems to advance the milder Atlantic air rather quicker than yesterdays 12z run and also shown on this mornings fax charts. In the short to medium term also backed up by GFS/ECM. All very frustrating for you lot as Mid-Winter approaches. Feel sad and looking for crumbs of comfort !

 C

UKMOPEU00_120_1.png

Even the GFS (P) &(ENS) runs show little sign of sustained cold out to day 15. But the chart below from ECM offers a bit of hope with a Arctic High but that's 10 days away ! Maybe there will be another switch in the 12z runs as that seems to be the case but have a feeling the UKMO will delay any cold further into the winter season.

C

ECMOPNH00_240_1.png

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50 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This isn’t zonal 

9E7CB20C-8E04-4D21-85CF-E79D087DDB1D.png

Is it still panto season...

Oh yes it is!

😀

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Usual caveats but the D16 GFS mean sums up why we never had much chance of the UK HP moving north and why the early week or so from downwelling will not be greatly beneficial for the UK:

342001275_gensnh-21-1-384(1).thumb.png.8eca4184b3368e963b088303f5e1e8d2.png   gens_panel_dip4.png

The strat PV concentrated to our north, moving back and forth, a real spoiler. The only advantage is that it gets squeezed with time by the height rises on the Pacific/Asia side so forcing the pattern NW to SE, ergo cold zonal! That will please those up north with good ASL. 

The GEFS are not great for UK snow, now showing to the 21st Jan. I assume the blocky members are as a result of the SSW but the probability of snow in the south at the end of the run doesn't surpass 20%. 

The main driver for the trop not responding quicker to the changes from above may be the strong Pacific Jet? Until that relents those fantastical blocky NH profiles may be few and far between in the medium term.

So to sum up:

1 - The background signals pre-SSW for the trop did not lead to any UK snow, despite good confidence at times.

2 - The SSW initial response in the trop seems like it will not be providing HLB'ing for UK snow; seemingly cold zonal our best chance, but true cold zonal so much better than a westerly regime.

3 - Will the trop redeem itself so the UK can benefit from this significant event? Still, plenty of time for cold and snow from a block in our region late Jan and Feb. 

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The best op run this morning for cold conditions is the GFS(p) 0z between 192h and 384h:

image.thumb.gif.f538c668f2f3dd8e42b20d0776b68ac8.gif . image.thumb.gif.44cd0f0b31458eeb886b19c35da1b69c.gif

Although there are likely to be many changes in the actual outcome, this model has been consistently predicting the coldest evolutions over the last few days.

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We really seem to be stuck in a rut currently, small glimmers of light which seem to diminish quickly.

Matt appears to be losing his enthusiasm from the last few days:

C1584E2E-C707-4129-867D-5E85A244D4B3.thumb.png.7f34b5fa17e756da01df0eec968fb4e3.png

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52 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

That's the type of weather I hate the most, in the Netherlands we call it water cold weather, cold but not cold but above freezing, with cold freezing rain, sleet, hail. You get soaking wet and cold unlike dry proper cold which feels a lot warmer or proper non melting snow 

True but I would even take sleet and some nice frosts. We seem to be stuck on Groundhog day at the moment very boring on the surface even though we know things are happening higher up. If its cold zonal at least it resets the pattern and has the jet diving south getting rid of those hieghts. Then we take another lottery ticket and see where we are mid to late month. At least the Para gives us a glimmer of hope but I think we all know its going to slowly come round and join the other models unfortunately.

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Posted (edited)

Trying to look towards the end of the month, CFS (1 month) indicates a possible run of seven days of cold (-4 to -8) uppers from the 20th to the 27th:

850s:  image.thumb.gif.d6cf430edafa8cd8f2c573f07980f83b.gif

500s:  image.thumb.gif.e1c3d18b0f2a19970ad35a4941418596.gif

This might be the most likely period for a lasting cold spell to occur.

 

 

Edited by Sky Full
.

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Nice EC for those in NW Britain , esp with some altitude this morning!Would imagine hillier areas will be quite snowy day 8 onwards..

image.thumb.png.7fca03cb1a7847e8d9cdd8b4cd44c97c.png

Mean still suggestive of PM attacks but i would like to see some evidence of heights moving into southern Greenland or to put it another way, signs of the PV splitting to allow for a true block to the NW.

Perhaps some signs of the above on the EC det but looks a bit unconvincing at this stage.

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22 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

The best op run this morning for cold conditions is the GFS(p) 0z between 192h and 384h:

image.thumb.gif.f538c668f2f3dd8e42b20d0776b68ac8.gif . image.thumb.gif.44cd0f0b31458eeb886b19c35da1b69c.gif

Although there are likely to be many changes in the actual outcome, this model has been consistently predicting the coldest evolutions over the last few days.

That's a great post showing those graphics runs on those pressure charts. 

 

To me it looks like the problem there is the large high to our southwest is pulsing / throwing of weaker secondary high ridges further north /northwest toward us. 

This seems to deflect any cold push/attempts and seems to send it further over the continent.

that large high to our southwest deflects a lot of weather up over the top of it Keelung things mobile . 

We need the high to either , change its shape and topology  to a more vertical position extending in to mid Atlantic , or for the whole high to move up northeast past us and form a block . 

Until that high moves I can't see the SSW having much of an effect for a little while yet. 

Plenty of time though for this to happen. 

 

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43 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Even the GFS (P) &(ENS) runs show little sign of sustained cold out to day 15. But the chart below from ECM offers a bit of hope with a Arctic High but that's 10 days away ! Maybe there will be another switch in the 12z runs as that seems to be the case but have a feeling the UKMO will delay any cold further into the winter season.

C

ECMOPNH00_240_1.png

Just to lighten the mood for you lot back in snow starved Blighty. This picture sent by my friend from Altenmarkt, Salzburger Land this morning. The new fashion, Mask and Snorkel and yes, its still snowing . Just a short 2 hour flight away and you will be in winter wonderland. Just book it and get your fix. Its worth it. Meanwhile, here in damp mild Vancouver , they too still hunt for winter cold ! Have a good day.

C

 

49551464_2096219453777017_3920549381622726656_n.jpg

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Because I live in England and I’m proud 🤭

 nothing against the rest rest of the uk, but I’m not likely to look at the ens graph for Lerwick as it’s not where I live, I’m also unlikely to post an ens graph for Manchester because it’s equally not where I live. 

But most of all, I live so far south that if it’s showing cold for me, the rest of the uk should be laughing!

Onto the models, the ECM looks fine to me, I’m going to wager a bet that we won’t see a D10 vortex like this again! It’s gonna go POP!

A025C963-5B93-4F39-8424-6FAF1ED2A1A5.thumb.png.6cbe80ff825e09877a194cb019735ffb.png

I bet the EPS look good @mulzy ?

Yes @karlos1983, the ext EPS good again - very similar to last night.  If anything the higher heights over Iceland/Greenland a little stronger.  If I am being choosy, would like to see the troughing over Europe to be a little bit further south but otherwise all good.  We are still good to go post 15th January IMHO.

Edited by mulzy

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Underwhelmed !

The models continue to flatten the pattern . The fax charts show the huge change . Until high latitude blocking is shown then there’s no chance of anything sustained .

Very poor start to the day , three hours of slush and a BBC reporter stuck on the  North York Moors telling everyone about the snow whilst 99% of the country is looking at rain is hardly going to cut it .

As for the EPS promising jam tomorrow which remain marooned and never get closer . Enough already !

 

OMG this is a first, i think i disagree with the last line Nick !

The signal from eps for the real change hasn't been inside day 10 as far as i'm aware?

Sounds to me like the signal is maintained- 🙂

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Underwhelmed !

The models continue to flatten the pattern . The fax charts show the huge change . Until high latitude blocking is shown then there’s no chance of anything sustained .

Very poor start to the day , three hours of slush and a BBC reporter stuck on the  North York Moors telling everyone about the snow whilst 99% of the country is looking at rain is hardly going to cut it .

As for the EPS promising jam tomorrow which remain marooned and never get closer . Enough already !

 

Nick go and have some moules frites and a glass of wine at lunch lol 

This time I don’t understand your frustration. We are fast approaching mid month, the turning point is coming! Shame we can’t say the same for our beloved Arsenal, but we can’t have everything 😁

:santa-emoji:

 

Edited by karlos1983

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

OMG this is a first, i think i disagree with the last line Nick !

The signal from eps for the real change hasn't been inside day 10 as far as i'm aware?

Sounds to me like the signal is maintained- 🙂

The signal has remained at post day ten for the last two weeks , so it’s maintained the jam tomorrow.

Don't mind me as you can see I’m not in the best of moods and the morning outputs are in danger of sending me over the edge !

 

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The signal has remained at post day ten for the last two weeks , so it’s maintained the jam tomorrow.

Don't mind me as you can see I’m not in the best of moods and the morning outputs are in danger of sending me over the edge !

 

Haha , i never mind you my friend..

🙂

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