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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Devon
    13 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    No matter what time of year  it never has the edge over the Ecm.  For me no model has covered itself in glory this winter but the GFS in particular has been woeful  it comes out 4 times a day which is why most look at it  but for me its ranked fourth in weather consistency.    

    I may be wrong, but I get the impression that the GFS parallel/FV3, or whatever it is best called, has been well-received of late - or is that just it has been providing the best-looking charts rather then most accurate?

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    7 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    We could also exclude ECM because it tends to over amplify leading to fantasy easterlies. Maybe exclude GEM, ICON, NAVGEM and JMA because they are all a bit useless. METO tends to be good up to 120 but the 144 charts are often not good so we could bin that as well. 

    Not saying that it doesn't have its weaknesses but so do all the other models. The more data the better. METO may not use GFS as a first line model but I doubt they would just automatically bin it. Also peeps are assuming its wrong in bringing in a short period of mobility before the pattern quickly re amplifies. It may yet be proved right.

    Is that the same short period of mobility that the Met Office (and presumably their chosen model-suite(s)) have been predicting, for quite a while now?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    Just now, Ed Stone said:

    Is that the same short period of mobility that the Met Office (and presumably their chosen model-suite(s)) have been predicting, for quite a while now?

    Yes, funny you should say that ? :oldrofl:. Guess what the GFS(P) rolling out now is showing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    You’re welcome I’m viewing the ECM from behind the sofa , stiff drink in hand and telephone set to the NW helpline !

     

    Hoping for a good EC run patience running rather thin para looking rather bleak again from its last snowmageddon run phasing is the big issue early on here.

    Edited by booferking
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    2 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

    I may be wrong, but I get the impression that the GFS parallel/FV3, or whatever it is best called, has been well-received of late - or is that just it has been providing the best-looking charts rather then most accurate?

    I dare say it has  regardless of the charts it produces  it is at a higher resolution than its older brother   so should be taken more seriously than the original gfs.  Of course time will tell  if it verifies any better

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    1 hour ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    2 major things for me which give major doubt 

    *exceptionally mild December: Usually going back through the CET archive, January’s and February’s following a very mild December rarely deliver.

    *Westerly Qbo: January’s with a  westerly qbo tend to be mild, or (not snowy). 

    However, despite this, there is still some scope for optimism... we haven’t seen the affects of the recent ssw yet come into the models... and we have very low flux.

    Yes, I agree with this. I appreciate some are desperate for cold and snow but these factors are the elephants in the rather crowded room. I believe the westerly phase QBO has played a significant factor in the Meto backing away from cold in their update. The trouble is, this has been a continuation for several weeks now and any further pushbacks put us firmly into February - and in the blink of an eye, we're all peering into 384 territory and Spring. 

    A lot of water to pass under the bridge before then but with the output flat for the foreseeable another significant chunk of worthwhile winter gets chewed up. However a lot of useable weather for now for sure so no bad thing at all ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    9 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    Yes, funny you should say that ? :oldrofl:. Guess what the GFS(P) rolling out now is showing. 

    A stonking pacific ridge.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    A stonking pacific ridge.

    If we could run the GFSP on by a further two days I'd wager that most on here would be happy. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    The problem is clear here.

    To much blind faith in the GFS 'mobility' forecast.

    This is the SAME GFS ( excl FV3 ) thats been wrong for the last 10 days over estimating the 'eastward' projection.

    Lets go a whole day & not post the GFS.

    To discount such a NWP big hitter is foolish - I still don't get the GFS player hating as it really has not been that far off the pace this winter's far. In fact, while some were ramping up cold for late November/early December, it kept its nerve and didn't fold at the pre-flop round while others at the table were bullish about their hand. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Nerve wracking we scrape over the first hurdle at T144 hrs on the ECM.

    Please can we have a bit more distance between shortwave and upstream low at T120hrs! 

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

    I tend to agree l about gfs being not far off the mark. I would like to see it start modelling some fantastic cold snowy charts as would anyone who likes cold.  I find it galling that it's been put back to. Week three of Jan. Will that be recurrent? I Hope not... Mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Not bad at all from ecm...just need the low to head up the western side of Greenland instead of heading east over the ridge....not much to ask!

     

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    ECM looking better at 144

    F667A540-1A2B-47C5-A3A5-B4D0F90F9EA4.thumb.png.82618a529af0bd90ce7f22c11ceaf2a8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Similar to the 0z evolution   

     

    ECH1-144.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Still plenty of chopping and changing across all models.

    ECM today/yesterday

    ECH1-144.GIFECH1-168.GIF

    So taking any run at face value at the moment would not be wise.

    The difference between the Euros and GFS including the parallel run is clear as early as 96h with the handling of the shortwaves interacting with the upper trough.

    EM/GFS 96h comparison

    ECH1-96.GIF?02-0gfsnh-0-96.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Re why we follow the Goofus : it’s because it goes out the furthest and we see all of the data inc precipitation and snow depth etc. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    the issue here is twofold

    a) a difference in MJO forecast which will show big differences between the models

    b) differences with downwelling wave timings - again, big differences

    the gefs has an amplified phase 7 and that is imprinted on the model week 2. also interspersed are runs with downwelling waves which are strong neg AO's  ….. leads to big variations between members

    the eps has low amplitude MJO rushing through phase 7 into 8 - very different picture. add to that the op (and ukmo) both show an initial downwelling wave as soon as day 4/5 from the n pacific sector and finding common ground is going to be difficult. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    The ECM & UKMO are very very close, ECM has the most vertical profile over the atlantic so will be the most amplified at 168-

    However its not totally about the amplitude of the wave, more about the undercutting capability ( dont forget the plucky ICON 12z )

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Some snow showers in the east as early as a week tomorrow according to ECM 

    B4583DD0-5032-48BE-BDE4-F916FB03FDFA.png

    59A70EBE-6995-45C9-A209-F4F2A6BFCFAC.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Not bad at day 7 . A bit more amplitude upstream and we could get the high further north before the topple towards Scandi .

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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