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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

We don't want him to get smashed,he had enough drinks over the festive period😜

some good post today,thanks everyone

druel over this latest from the cpc 14 day chart😁

814day_03.thumb.gif.25d8284ea6d23470f24d123267c2a555.gif

Although its a good chart, i have seen a few of those 8-14 NOAA anomaly charts similar over the last few years, i suspect though that over the next week or 2, those charts will day by day upgrade the cold potential

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We don't want him to get smashed,he had enough drinks over the festive period😜

some good post today,thanks everyone

druel over this latest from the cpc 14 day chart😁

814day_03.thumb.gif.25d8284ea6d23470f24d123267c2a555.gif

I will have you know i only got drunk once... lasted about 8 or 9 days tho... and yes totally agree some great work in here today by everybody, and with each passing model run it starts to look better as the last 2 weeks of Jan starts to come into view, i can see an epic winter period coming before winters out, one that will go down in folk law etc, in 20/30 years this forum will be full folk searching for the winter of 2018/19 charts to compare with whats coming and dreaming of living thru what we are about to live thru..BRING ME MY SNAW!!

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Although its a good chart, i have seen a few of those 8-14 NOAA anomaly charts similar over the last few years, i suspect though that over the next week or 2, those charts will day by day upgrade the cold potential

Granted

just looking at trends with these at the moment and for the last few days has been showing the ridge to back further west and trough into Scandi.

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We don't want him to get smashed,he had enough drinks over the festive period😜

some good post today,thanks everyone

druel over this latest from the cpc 14 day chart😁

814day_03.thumb.gif.25d8284ea6d23470f24d123267c2a555.gif

Possibly one of The most encouraging charts of the season so far....would like to hear John Holmes take on that chart......as being honest if the "hunt for cold" thread this winter was a movie we would already be on about the 25th sequel......with the last line of each being - "to be continued"..... 

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Just now, Had Worse said:

Nice one Karyo, hopefully to be copied at a square near us soon.

Fingers and toes crossed mate! I have to admit though, I am a bit gutted I am not there now.

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15 minutes ago, booferking said:

Nope.😅

JN264-21.gif

 

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well you won, as nobody else answered, but wide of the mark, the actual chart is here JMA T264:

image.thumb.jpg.bc6fcba59876e994de598ea6f462f5c3.jpg

wasn't a million miles off, the low pushes the ridge out of the way, still some kind of troughing into Europe and some slightly higher pressure towards Canada, anyway hopefully the real chart nearer the time will have us getting into / toward colder / snowy conditions, its a pity you cant get pressure anomalies like you can with other models on the JMA. I prefer the JMA strat charts to the pressure charts (tried to do a gif but think it mucked up)  😜

tempresult_cyy4.thumb.gif.78fff99d0b6b7f3e13363be91075590d.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=4&nh=1&archive=0

 

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You get smashed.

 

 

6 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

It got buried in snaw 

6lqk.gifemsco-snow-shovels-ice-scrapers-1601-1-64_1000.thumb.jpg.2c23be23a404dc85bc826a00ac5419f9.jpg 

a few from the 18z GEFS which are nearly finished 

gensnh-0-1-312.thumb.png.684514ac77cb2c7c46309201bc0c04b8.pnggensnh-17-1-324.thumb.png.6685a42bc581ebb70d6311d8395d6ea4.pnggensnh-17-5-324.thumb.png.b9c616f83515bd97a28f8dabaa08c629.png 

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Posted (edited)

The control going for a snorter,did i say that last night lol

 

images.thumb.jpg.e8d69abb57a0595f8c199c6c1b44bbd7.jpg

 

gensnh-0-1-312.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control going for a snorter,did i say that last night lol

gensnh-0-1-312.thumb.png.ae096fb10b2043359df263efcaed1c6e.png

 

 

Im off to get bread and milk... and Buckfast lots and lots of Buckfast, and maybe a bottle of Highland Spring 1ltr!

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice Mean 👌

C Southern England 

FF8A9D5D-15B1-448E-B1D9-B9C08BDCED83.thumb.gif.960bc70f235a607ea876f1be793f8b0f.gif

Cracking set of ENS 

Yes another stonker set.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes another stonker set.

Just a quick one, how would one go about finding charts like this for Central Scotland? cheers

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some from the GEM 12z ensembles

gens-0-1-276.thumb.png.b64d336fce1818143fc45a183648aa51.pnggens-2-1-300.thumb.png.c3610fbf33805d361adcb2cc8d9898a0.pnggens-7-0-384.thumb.png.315b73cf269c6b762461ec4848b27615.png 

and the 0z GEFS legacy 

gens-18-1-348.thumb.png.d19b523abf10497e42747318bba65894.pnggens-17-1-348.thumb.png.05706b2ee52d634854be809481be43d9.pnggens-11-1-348.thumb.png.f421c8cabc4be70eeddb3b81654c0527.pnggens-3-1-348.thumb.png.eb28ceaaf65c7c7b53d2dbbfd2797539.pnggens-17-1-384.thumb.png.6ebb9d2801d0c9a11216e2a5204682d7.pnggens-3-1-384.thumb.png.9375d07c8a4e302886ffe6a09594b5ce.pnggens-13-1-384.thumb.png.1d2f5be33c9760cc429adfc352014f16.png

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Just a quick one, how would one go about finding charts like this for Central Scotland? cheers

Like this.

image.thumb.png.79f513ec6ba50447a81fb882ab8b4952.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Like this.

image.thumb.png.79f513ec6ba50447a81fb882ab8b4952.png

They dont look half bad. be nice to see a few more upgrades over the coming days tho. 

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Posted (edited)

Better 12z  set of ECM ens - a good clustering dropping at the end.

image.thumb.png.71e10eeaf016ef4aa5ebe103af622e3b.png

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Just a quick one, how would one go about finding charts like this for Central Scotland? cheers

Anyone can get a set for thier location by changing the lat & lon values in the following url

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=18&lat=57.265&lon=2.7397&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

Edited by Ravelin

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5 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Just a quick one, how would one go about finding charts like this for Central Scotland? cheers

Go on Meteociel,click on gefs>diagrams>carte Europe then click on Scotland🙂

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4 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Just a quick one, how would one go about finding charts like this for Central Scotland? cheers

I use these, diagram version https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php table version http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?table=1 and to get the latitude and longitude just put your location into https://www.latlong.net/ 😀👍

looking good for here and probably similar throughout the UK

graphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.ba618184d33dce2fc6336f1c6db39b5a.gifgraphe3_1001___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.a49dfd022f0959d8e934ce207ceccec3.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=&lat=56.108780&lon=-3.162020&ville=

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Posted (edited)

18Z para is keeping that vortex tight (our local group) . But a decent wedge @ 300 hrs

gfsnh-0-300.png?18

Vortex IS proper smashed through the middle, though!

Edited by kumquat

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thanks guys... looks like i still have much to look and much to learn. 

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