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phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's one for you...a what happens next?

JMA T192:

image.thumb.jpg.df19acbae9cda2f73e52dc53f48f4ed9.jpg

The T264 will appear about 11 pm, what would it show?  No answers on a postcard please!  But very interested to read your thoughts in here! (I'll post the actual chart tomorrow morning).

I will have a guess for fun 😀

chart.thumb.png.3fbfd49ce7503ce1558cf16e08e88aeb.png

 

Edited by Mapantz

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26 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Ensemble mean for London is 1cm of snow by the end of the run. First time this winter it has gone above 0cm!

wasnt that the 00z run?

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Posted (edited)

Thank you for all the knowledgeable input to this thread on this event so far. More patience needed but when significant changes appear in the models it will be at day 5-6.

Edited by Mapantz
Moving on..

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Much more pronounced low out west of our high compared to the 12z, see if we can get more of a squeeze on

92254ACB-912A-478A-B0E7-7EE8AD242904.png

D6197AB2-2D2A-4DE2-9E08-CBC7E72806B0.png

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Posted (edited)

Models continue to trend towards something generally colder, with northerly blasts followed by toppling heights becoming the predominant feature - no sign of a surge of mild westerlies. 

Just waiting for that trigger low from the NW, to dive south and heights to the west linking with heights over the Pole - the synoptics on offer are ripe for such an evolution in the mid-month period. I said a few days back it will be around the 8-9th we begin to see the models start to show such a scenario in their semi-reliable timeframe, might take two bites to get there.. so we could have a month with four northerly shots followed by bitter prolonged cold - timescales:

8-9 Jan - first northerly

14 Jan - second more potent northerly

18 Jan - third northerly, again potent

21 Jan - trigger NW/N blast..

Edited by damianslaw

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

wasnt that the 00z run?

Ahhhh! The ensemble summaries obviously update after the individual runs become available! Still I'm expecting a similar result from the 12Zs, plenty of colder runs on the D15 ensembles tonight... at long last! I'm guessing D15 is going to show as equally split between colder and milder options on the clusters later. Feeling quite positive about a shake up in the synoptics in the second half of January 🙂

Edited by Man With Beard

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7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Ahhhh! The ensemble summaries obviously update after the individual runs become available! Still I'm expecting a similar result from the 12Zs, plenty of colder runs on the D15 ensembles tonight... at long last! I'm guessing D15 is going to show as equally split between colder and milder options on the clusters later. Feeling quite positive about a shake up in the synoptics in the second half of January 🙂

You expect the Custers to update ???

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

You expect the Custers to update ???

Bit random on brunnur.vedur.is at the moment, isn't it 

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bit random on brunnur.vedur.is at the moment, isn't it 

Frustrating ....for once the clusters are relevant as we expect to see a pattern emerge by end week 2 

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Posted (edited)

Pub run at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.3dd5fe19b0396957a50f3d8c761881ac.jpg

You can see in this run already the trend towards the eventual NH pattern, here's the ECM ensemble mean that I posted earlier, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.9d3ce292cea165bd130e1ec771185976.jpg

And that as per my earlier post ties in perfectly with the downwelling of the strat profile of right now.  It's not whether the SSW will affect us, it's how it will affect us?

Edited by Mike Poole

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Posted (edited)

@IDO  Chance to test out our post 240 ECM 12z theory argument out, GFS 18z isn't dissimilar - Lets see what happens.

image.thumb.png.83f656e5faafa82f64b83bc40329705b.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Not complaining about the pub run T288 for sure, nice set up:

image.thumb.jpg.318b9d8034383ec7c4416eefa9dc1b2f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.45aa8daaa2c02b3a6a88935a7e9113ab.jpg

All this is the starter, the main course is still downwelling in the kitchen! 🐉

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@IDO  Chance to test out our post 240 ECM 12z theory argument out, GFS 18z isn't dissimilar - Lets see what happens.

image.thumb.png.83f656e5faafa82f64b83bc40329705b.png

GFS 18z chart for 14th ties in with my 14th more potent northerly forecast..

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18Z end beautifully..

Very cold north wester incoming.

 

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2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

GFS 18z chart for 14th ties in with my 14th more potent northerly forecast..

Its a draw, looking good at 384 and already some PM influences between 240-384 but still too much doubt to call it an outright victory!!!

image.thumb.png.7ea1d57310e949b5d02a6b2e2569f885.png

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57 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I will have a guess for fun 😀

chart.thumb.png.3fbfd49ce7503ce1558cf16e08e88aeb.png

 

Nope.😅

JN264-21.gif

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I will have a guess for fun 

 

 

Well you won, as nobody else answered, but wide of the mark, the actual chart is here JMA T264:

image.thumb.jpg.bc6fcba59876e994de598ea6f462f5c3.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a draw, looking good at 384 and already some PM influences between 240-384 but still too much doubt to call it an outright victory!!!

image.thumb.png.7ea1d57310e949b5d02a6b2e2569f885.png

I cant seem to find Scotland on this chart! what happened.?

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Just now, More Snow said:

I cant seem to find Scotland on this chart! what happened.?

You get smashed.

 

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Well I haven't viewed the charts for a couple of days other than reading comments on here. I've just looked at the 18z and sorry but for me it looks brutal. No end in sight to this high (which is over us now 2 weeks plus) just hovering and meandering near us. It has burnt up a fair slice of Winter already.

I know we have a lot in our favour as the month goes on but let's be honest as well.  It's mid winter and most of us have barely seen a frost!

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2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

I cant seem to find Scotland on this chart! what happened.?

It got buried in snaw 

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You get smashed.

 

Thats a given for Scotland... weather wise are we talking SNAW?

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, More Snow said:

Thats a given for Scotland... weather wise are we talking SNAW?

At 384 yes but there are huge caveats with 384 hours op run charts.

EDIT : The reality is though that you will probably get smashed before then - particularly for NW exposed parts of Scotland.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

It got buried in snaw 

Well i am sat here watching "The Day After Tomorrow" so all good then.. 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You get smashed.

 

We don't want him to get smashed,he had enough drinks over the festive period😜

some good post today,thanks everyone

druel over this latest from the cpc 8-14 day chart😁

814day_03.thumb.gif.25d8284ea6d23470f24d123267c2a555.gif

Edited by Allseasons-si

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