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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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The model output is at best mediocre, at worst a bit of a bore. What has struck me over the last couple of days is the complete absence of any freezing cold flat liners in any ensemble suite. 

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As a stepping-stone toward an even colder pattern, this will be good enough:

image.thumb.png.d4a5add2a871ece52f66a6cb9c28dce1.png

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

come back in the middle of next week and tell me that.

I admire your confidence. Just look at those debilt ensembles from this morning. It really doesn't inspire much confidence in anything cold. Everything is just being put further and further back. We have been here so many times before. Just to clarify, a couple of wet snow events will just not cut the mustard after the bore fest we have had to endure this winter. 

pluim_06260_0_00_60.png

Edited by blizzard81

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With all that cold air moving into Europe once again we manage to only barely get a slither of cold in the east of the country and maybe a few wet flakes near the coasts. So annoying todays runs. :olddoh:

The para holds out some hope though, but having to look out into FI as usual is becoming tedious, maybe late Jan will deliver something or early Feb, or mid Feb.:unsure2:

nmm-16-120-0.png

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

As a stepping-stone toward an even colder pattern, this will be good enough:

image.thumb.png.d4a5add2a871ece52f66a6cb9c28dce1.png

Anniversary of my snowfest! to the day as well, Friday

archives-2013-1-18-12-0.png

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes agree-

But I think in the midterm the blocking will be underestimated ( but as you say it wont be some transformation between 6-10 ) just more steering SE...

Im liking that deep deep polar low at 144- exploding cold SE into Scandi is just the ticket...

We see that very same deep polar low steering into scandi every winter which then just infiltrates eastern Europe and dilutes as it goes south. End result? We don't get a sniff!

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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ian browns infamous WTF..

Man remember that event well and shall never forget!!gave 15 -20cms here in the midlands!!snowed all day and first part of the night!!

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3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We see that very same deep polar low steering into scandi every winter which then just infiltrates eastern Europe and dilutes as it goes south. End result? We don't get a sniff!

But what we don't see every winter, is the very real prospect of a shattered PV, and all that that entails?

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

You should take up meteorology Blizzard, you seem to know exactly how everything’s going to plan out 👍

Silly post there Karlos as I was talking about past events. Anyway, we all have our opinions. And that's exactly what I am expressing. 

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But what we don't see every winter, is the very real prospect of a shattered PV, and all that that entails?

I may well be wrong of course and believe me I hope I am. We just need to bear in mind all the past ssw events that didn't deliver. I remember the late 90's being mentioned a lot a few weeks ago. 

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Was tongue in cheek 😜 and you are of course entitled to your opinion 😃

Moving on, we seem to have pretty good agreement at +96 just small differences really!

74A3A0FA-C19B-4F35-9AA5-32493CB9D575.thumb.png.f059797b92a10219a07c59054b3cf1dc.png04E39CAF-23D8-4305-BBA2-F1B9396DD6F8.thumb.png.5fdf5b37b7096ad64f2d9aff22d3e826.png2B24C319-D5DC-4381-86EF-E7C24212E5CD.thumb.gif.3cc73684c4a0a29360bb6d0f567653d5.gif

certainly a cold second half of the week is odds on! 👍 it’s what happens thereafter that’s got my attention! 

Believe me, I haven't given up hope. Just not liking the "medium" term trends. The "longer" term trends look more promising. The problem is, all winter long the longer terms trends have looked very good. They just haven't counted down at all. 

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22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Anniversary of my snowfest! to the day as well, Friday

archives-2013-1-18-12-0.png

Was living at 300m in the Peak District during that winter and spring, stunning events that just kept on coming. March 2013 gave me the 2nd best Snaw event of my life, only bettered by feb/march 2018. will the UK see the like of it again? 

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4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Believe me, I haven't given up hope. Just not liking the "medium" term trends. The "longer" term trends look more promising. The problem is, all winter long the longer terms trends have looked very good. They just haven't counted down at all. 

Fair enough, however the difference this time is unlike previously, the SSWE has actually taken place. so it’s now pretty simple, we will either benefit from it (form horse) or we won’t. What if’s and when’s of the SSW are over, it’s action stations now! 

Got our ticket 🎫 🥶 lets hope we picked a winner 👍 :santa-emoji:

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Posted (edited)

Not sure it’s an upgrade on the last run but the 10 day ECM mean looks pretty good, another day or 2 and could be very good. Was hoping weekend 12/13th would be the start If something but just too early I think. 

C9C4F0FF-0E80-46F6-A68F-BE6912DAFA97.png

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Fair enough, however the difference this time is unlike previously, the SSWE has actually taken place. so it’s now pretty simple, we will either benefit from it (form horse) or we won’t. What if’s and when’s of the SSW are over, it’s action stations now! 

Got our ticket 🎫 🥶 lets hope we picked a winner 👍 

Indeed. That's the best thing about this now. The waiting will soon be over - for good or bad! 🙂

 

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Posted (edited)

ECM mean at T240, looking interesting to me:

image.thumb.jpg.630f53decc5ff16fd211ce4a2b1af900.jpg

Arctic high now 1035 on the mean chart T240 from 1030 a couple of days ago.  And you can now see the three purple vortex pieces starting to roughly mirror the strat position as of now, 10 hPa chart for today:

image.thumb.jpg.e39e966de75a6fc34d20df8af190464d.jpg

Still need the two main ones near us to separate a little in the trop I think, but all good as far as I can see for the medium term outlook.  I would say this is evidence from the ECM ensemble mean for the downwelling of the strat pattern over the next 10 day timescale, these runs the clearest I've seen it so far.

Edited by Mike Poole

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2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Was living at 300m in the Peak District during that winter and spring, stunning events that just kept on coming. March 2013 gave me the 2nd best Snaw event of my life, only bettered by feb/march 2018. will the UK see the like of it again? 

Yes, absolutely, even the strongest opinions never suggest that we can't see more cold spells in the future, they just will be fewer and further apart, thats not saying i subscribe anyway to that thought.

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1 hour ago, Stonethecrows said:

Where abouts in sheffield are you coz S10 have had a few decent ground frosts. I know frosts aren't really anything to get excited about but your post deserved some pedantry.

S8 one visible ground frost in December that lasted all day. Car scraper is worried that it will be made redundant. Actually I'll correct myself there was ground frost on the day of the freezing rain. Make that two days.

Anyway although the ecm is in general terms crud for proper cold it does get rid of that damn high. Sadly in Lala so the high will be doing an Arnie "I'll Be Back" no doubt.

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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not sure it’s an upgrade on the last run but the 10 day ECM mean looks pretty good, another day or 2 and could be very good. Was hoping weekend 12/13th would be the start If something but just too early I think. 

Looks to be a downgrade on this morning's 10 day mean. 

EDH1-240 (1).gif

EDH1-240 (2).gif

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