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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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The way I see it is that the tropical forcing effects give us a number of incrementally colder northerly outbreaks interspersed with brief less cold shots before the downwelling SSW effects kick in later in the month, as others have stated the arctic high is now being modelled regularly in the 10-15 day range which should set us up nicely for late January.

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3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

C

will that thaw time for next winter???? Thanks for ‘rub in for Uk’ btw 😜

 

BFTP

Oh its just wetting your appetite for the real thing soon to come your way ! Currently out in Vancouver and the weather is so depressing out here with low cloud cover. My friends back in Austria are buried in the stuff. Wish I was there.

C

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1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Oh its just wetting your appetite for the real thing soon to come your way ! Currently out in Vancouver and the weather is so depressing out here with low cloud cover. My friends back in Austria are buried in the stuff. Wish I was there.

C

On the one hand I feel your pain but then I think about the fact that you do actually live there and enjoy the snow in the winter and lovely summer conditions with associated views .......... so no, I have no sympathy!!

the gefs slow out .....

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16 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

For any newer members in the later frames we can see how the gradual down welling is undermining the trop.vortex.

Those lighter coloured blues over the pole indicate the reversal is hitting the centre of PV at 500hPa.

gfsnh-0-174.png?12

The PV gradually being split into smaller chunks. 

What we are hoping for is a wide split to our north making room for those heights over the  the pole to nose through the gap around the Greenland area. 

Recent ens are quite promising from days 10-15.

In the meantime we look like seeing a decent holding pattern with quite a cold week to come next week. 

Many thanks Phil for the explanation, I did think that the HP forming over the pole was a reaction to the ssw. Also there's a good explanation of ssw on the BBC weather site (Tom Schafemaker).  Pete.

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1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Anyway, just for you Blue. My friend sent me this picture from this morning outside his hotel in Zauchensee and its still snowing this evening ! Will be well over 100cm by this time next week.

C

49658233_2406109979419056_3160329024790593536_n.jpg

We're in with a shout image.thumb.png.2da30d1e3117bc1366d8ca6f38a7e164.png but nowt like what Carinthian's got!

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2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Anyway, just for you Blue. My friend sent me this picture from this morning outside his hotel in Zauchensee and its still snowing this evening ! Will be well over 100cm by this time next week.

C

49658233_2406109979419056_3160329024790593536_n.jpg

That will be a picture from the car park at Crieff Hydro by the end of the month.

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The model of choice can always be relied on to put a smile on our face...

GFSPARAEU12_240_1.thumb.png.ebe5338d89e0b237543459256fae8592.pngGFSOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.5bc561a7baf3a2b7a5d14b8dd2463bbe.png

GFSp compared to GFS op on D10. 

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Yes Para much better ..

Jet tracking into Europa a treat ..

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GFSP does give the SE in particular some snow chances next week. Its a bit marginal and not likely to amount to much. Shame its a PM air mass rather than continental as -6 ton -8 uppers would have pretty much guaranteed snow whereas theta values are bit touch and go.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, IDO said:

The model of choice can always be relied on to put a smile on our face...

GFSPARAEU12_240_1.thumb.png.ebe5338d89e0b237543459256fae8592.pngGFSOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.5bc561a7baf3a2b7a5d14b8dd2463bbe.png

GFSp compared to GFS op on D10. 

Can you stop spoiling the anticipation for those of us following the runs on Meteociel. Thanks! 😁

Edited by kumquat

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20 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Anyway, just for you Blue. My friend sent me this picture from this morning outside his hotel in Zauchensee and its still snowing this evening ! Will be well over 100cm by this time next week.

C

49658233_2406109979419056_3160329024790593536_n.jpg

Please, Carinthian. Could you spare me a flake? 😭

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3 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Can you stop spoiling the anticipation for those of us following the runs on Meteociel. Thanks! 😁

I reckon this is going to be a good run by day 10 Kumquat :whistling:

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31 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Oh its just wetting your appetite for the real thing soon to come your way ! Currently out in Vancouver and the weather is so depressing out here with low cloud cover. My friends back in Austria are buried in the stuff. Wish I was there.

C

Same as we have had......yuk

 

BFTP

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Our old friend the high says nothing but scraps for you boyz and gals to look forward too. At this rate it will be still around by spring time. Only seen one descent ground frost this winter.

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Posted (edited)

FV3 a good run, none more so than this at T312:

image.thumb.jpg.485818113f655ed3e99f54bf31ad8c5a.jpg

It's a weak ridge but in the right place, to bring in the cold from the East - T850s at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.a49493094a3125b48c53e425d4daed9e.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Our old friend the high says nothing but scraps for you boyz and gals to look forward too. At this rate it will be still around by spring time. Only seen one descent ground frost this winter.

Where abouts in sheffield are you coz S10 have had a few decent ground frosts. I know frosts aren't really anything to get excited about but your post deserved some pedantry.

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

Sorry, a bit frustrated, total snow depth at the end of the run:

GFSOPEU12_384_25.thumb.png.a2b952c48484d957baa27a3d01acf9bd.png

I do appreciate that some like just cold uppers, but my POV is more snow orientated!

Because all sensible people judge a run on a day 15 now accumulation chart 😂 

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Posted (edited)

GFSp showing some very interesting runs, especially with shallow/transient Scandi HP around 18/20.  Basically it’s a longevity very cold run.....plausible too

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Posted (edited)

ECM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.4dff31315b8183d15ba36fb11f6c3708.jpg

We know this first ridge will topple, no way energy going under that - on any model - but I like the way the NH profile as a whole is shaping up on this run, Arctic high evident, interesting upstream, and all the purples getting shoved over to the eastern side.  And the SSW effects still to come (well except the Arctic high which is probably SSW related)...

Edited by Mike Poole

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-7 uppers 120 on Ecm covering most of England 

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10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 a good run, none more so than this at T312:

image.thumb.jpg.485818113f655ed3e99f54bf31ad8c5a.jpg

It's a weak ridge but in the right place.  

It’s called a ‘wedge’ lol 🙂

But in all seriousness, to anyone who’s relatively new to model watching, looking for the nivara charts with the 1060 Greenland high or a massive Scandinavia high is all well and good, and obviously thats our ultimate goal, but sometimes a well placed wedge of heights can deliver the goods (as above). 

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