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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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GFS showing some light snow showers into the SE @126..

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, no frosts round our locale but very very cold...

Im happy with UKMO- its a cold run and im even happier to see that all important trough kicking those horrid Iberian heights into touch..

image.thumb.png.d85eb411b7dd3df9fcbdc7d7053b18d2.png

Classic Genoa low there should stop things sinking 

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image.thumb.png.47750f49f8daf6b86c3c15c00d314f40.png

Lesser-spotted at the moment but a very respectable end to the GEM 12z. Alaskan, Altantic and Arctic heights all threatening to join up with the Eurasian remnants of the PV looking to dive SE. Pretty much in line with this morning's GFS 06z

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Meteociel not updating but a broadly similar pattern emerging by week 2 - heights building north out of the NW Atlantic, as well as into the high arctic via Alaska. Building blocks at this point, question for later frames is whether they will link up
 
image.thumb.png.1608c84bb4a0db20ccc89a37d87c19bc.png
 

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A recurring theme in The later stages . 

F1AE85D4-7EBE-40F2-B25A-F135197AE7EE.png

B56C537D-AE8F-4A1F-802F-DA13A14F84B1.png

60DDFFA4-7C2A-4971-A7DA-F62A619740F6.png

00D337C6-A428-47A4-88AA-8B2A7599E6F6.png

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41 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

is it just me or is GFS frozen at t+84hrs ?

meteociel have put the following notice up

Downloading from NOAA server still quite slow.

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Again, repeating the theme of toppler on this run in FI:

GFSOPEU12_336_1.thumb.png.ce564d002b27fae1ce3ee2fcdf33fb16.png

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Don't panic Mr Mainwearing...it's model bias!😁

image.thumb.png.c115131e2049619becb15a2e3577990a.pngimage.thumb.png.08d7aca5ef6cafd11da04547fac33ff4.png  

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, lets forget the cold before that and home in on one chart in FI..

btw, it ends like this..

image.thumb.png.ca8bcd8df8eb13e6eadf115327471023.png

 

Sorry, a bit frustrated, total snow depth at the end of the run:

GFSOPEU12_384_25.thumb.png.a2b952c48484d957baa27a3d01acf9bd.png

I do appreciate that some like just cold uppers, but my POV is more snow orientated!

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Sorry, a bit frustrated, total snow depth at the end of the run:

GFSOPEU12_384_25.thumb.png.a2b952c48484d957baa27a3d01acf9bd.png

I do appreciate that some like just cold uppers, but my POV is more snow orientated!

Guess it might be time to relocate to NW Scotland then 🙂

Its one GFS op and its wayyyy into FI..

It might be right of course .. we'll see..

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3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

For any newer members in the later frames we can see how the gradual down welling is undermining the trop.vortex.

Those lighter coloured blues over the pole indicate the reversal is hitting the centre of PV at 500hPa.

gfsnh-0-174.png?12

The PV gradually being split into smaller chunks. 

What we are hoping for is a wide split to our north making room for those heights over the  the pole to nose through the gap around the Greenland area. 

Recent ens are quite promising from days 10-15.

In the meantime we look like seeing a decent holding pattern with quite a cold week to come next week. 

A good summing up there Phil NW and the GFS several cold northerly outbreaks before the cold spell mentioned by the met office is even due to start. I,ll take that for starters thank you very much.

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We're still about 10 days away from the tropospheric showing being effected from the stratt warming so from T 120 they will continue to alter and tease us all ,but we are now seeing hints of northerly s coming round the hP now which is a great improve ment on about 4/5 days ago ,the models always struggle to keep consistent with colder weather coming but it is coming and it might be very brutal come 2 weeks time if the warming causes the weather we want,keep the faith everyone

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Good job this isn't the Hunt for Toppler thread then...

Its a good job it isn't the hunt for tropical air from long draw SW bartlett type setups thread!

Else Paul would have a serious problem as Knocker and IDO would be the only ones in it since Ian Brown has gone.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Ooh now that was a near miss weather-wise for us in SW UK, look at those dark blues across central & especially eastern UK next Wed, they miss us and then it actually looks like turning somewhat milder (or less cold) by next Fri for a time 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Quite a change and as @nick sussex said earlier it’s pretty rare to see this back track once the first hurdle fails!

6642F5C7-ABB1-4257-8C1C-6BA4510537B9.thumb.png.37678c26163381ec585e33bbb485f7cb.png

back in the game short term 😃

Yes it’s as rare as one of my many diets that actually got started !

Theres a bit more jet cut back in both the GFS and UKMO . We can’t expect a miracle turn around though . The high will sink but it’s trying to lessen that as much as possible and keep those low heights to the south .

The early improvements are helped by the weaker shortwave . The models have had a real problem with that , and have been all over the place with how deep it is .

Edited by nick sussex

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37 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looks like plenty of more snow to come in Austria next week looking at the UKMO  144t chart.Yesterdays  pictures below from Salzburger Land. First one in from the resort of Filzmoss at 1000m and the second one of the Police Station in Obertauern at 1750m. Some exceptional snowfalls in the region and much more to come !

C

49301926_2423470677876019_3950737005939261440_n.jpg

49204530_2424178891138531_4334523768702500864_n.jpg

C

will that thaw time for next winter???? Thanks for ‘rub in for Uk’ btw 😜

 

BFTP

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes it’s as rare as one of my many diets that actually got started !

Theres a bit more jet cut back in both the GFS and UKMO . We can’t expect a miracle turn around though . The high will sink but it’s trying to lessen that as much as possible and keep those low heights to the south .

The sink of HP isn’t an issue Nick as it will happen, but the loop back will give more colder conditions less likely to be totally phased out before the next cold blast....which enhances the next attack?

 

BFTP

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