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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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At 81 hours the gfs 12z is a slight upgrade with a better Atlantic ridge forming. Also the low to the north of us moving southeast is slightly shallower and has less mild air wrapped around it.

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Well in my hunt for cold I looked out the window today, 3.4c high with frost persisting in spots and now frost coming back down again. Short northerly still on with the GFS

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I fancy some upgrade to nearterm. I think the LP from 7-10 Jan may drop sharper across us.....let’s see where we go.  I think it’s a key starting whistle

 

 

 BFTP

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7 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all in a dry UK from a very wet Vancouver !  Looks like latest ECM has dropped its warmer outputs from last night but moves to displace the UK block at a fairly rapid rate. The UKMO again at 144t shows the best route for cold as it continues to drop heights over Euroland which could bring some surprise colder conditions into the SE as the block still looks more robust rather than to sink. Think models generally still not got to grips as to where you are heading.

C

UN144-21.gif

Further to the above post, UKMO does indeed provide a surprise for the SE with a cyclonic NEly flow due to much lower heights across Euroland on the run. At least this will help to stop the high sinking. Another variation added to the mix. See where ECM goes this evening.

C

UW144-21.gif

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UKMO interesting at day 6 - close to an easterly.

image.thumb.png.3b07a682e138d5e55951dfca47492176.png

 

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11 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

So extrapalating this on from Day 10 then it is highly like that the upper push of the ridge to the Atlantic sector not only continues but also propagates down to the troposphere. When this happens then bingo, suddenly  a HLB will develop and be sustained in an area where the UK will be in the firing line for any Arctic outflow. My timing for this would be around days 15-20, so that is when I think that true winter will begin....

I am liking the sound of that... 

THANKS for taking the time to write an in-depth post.. 🖒🖒

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Yup slight upgrade on ukmo and gfs so far!!

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2 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I am liking the sound of that... 

THANKS for taking the time to write an in-depth post.. 🖒🖒

Yes , once you get @chionomaniac on board it’s as good as having a clean sweep of the output on side ! 🤣🤣

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is it just me or is GFS frozen at t+84hrs ?

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UKMO looks pretty cold to me next week..

image.thumb.png.dd3053ffe9018f4ea9b1d9f5f0ecd071.png

image.thumb.png.0874ef465378aa2d0c2fb7768fba539a.png

Then, we finish with ..

image.thumb.png.2655a72fa4810077a576a7fefea6f873.png

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

is it just me or is GFS frozen at t+84hrs ?

Yes & not for the first time recently 🤨

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Posted (edited)

A slight increase in potential IMO, as everything seems a wee bit further west; snowfall all-but guaranteed away from immediate coastlines...?

image.thumb.png.ef4fe651665612fbc553559a102105f6.png

I wouldn't rule out some pretty severe frosts next week, either:

image.thumb.png.dc8e0a2146c56ecd0986ed39309cac04.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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Posted (edited)

At 144 hours the 12z gfs is about 200 miles further northwest than the earlier run. Quite an upgrade and makes next week quite a bit colder.

I wonder if the pattern can amplify a bit more in future runs.

Edited by karyo

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Just now, karyo said:

At 144 hours the 12z gfs is about 200 miles further northwest than the earlier run. Quite an upgrade and makes next week quite a bit colder.

UKMO is lovely..

850s reveal a cold wind and by 144 the trough is digging SW , never a bad sign..

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO is lovely..

850s reveal a cold wind and by 144 the trough is digging SW , never a bad sign..

Hopefully i will see some frosts next week as this week's high is a failure here. 

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Hopefully i will see some frosts next week as this week's high is a failure here. 

Same here. Another cloudy week it's been here at my location. Hopeful of some frost next week going by the output. 

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Hopefully i will see some frosts next week as this week's high is a failure here. 

Yes, no frosts round our locale but very very cold...

Im happy with UKMO- its a cold run and im even happier to see that all important trough kicking those horrid Iberian heights into touch..

image.thumb.png.d85eb411b7dd3df9fcbdc7d7053b18d2.png

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Quite a change and as @nick sussex said earlier it’s pretty rare to see this back track once the first hurdle fails!

6642F5C7-ABB1-4257-8C1C-6BA4510537B9.thumb.png.37678c26163381ec585e33bbb485f7cb.png

back in the game short term 😃

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Big GFS coming up...

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Quite a change and as @nick sussex said earlier it’s pretty rare to see this back track once the first hurdle fails!

6642F5C7-ABB1-4257-8C1C-6BA4510537B9.thumb.png.37678c26163381ec585e33bbb485f7cb.png

back in the game short term 😃

Colder air in place ready for something potent from the North day 10/11 hopefully. 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS follows UKMO ..

Yup, the tail doesn’t wag the dog 🤣 

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