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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not that great surely? With Northern and Western parts with no anomalies temperatures and parts of England only 1 or 2 degrees below normal? 

Due to it being an ensemble average there's probably more that have the easterly too far south rather than too far north so it averages out further south. However it does show an easterly component as the cold stretches across Europe.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyway -

image.thumb.png.42bdf238f3fc358953633e58b3c5b2a3.pngimage.thumb.png.399ebaac58714efdefa6062611316e1a.pngimage.thumb.png.fa518cf5de66c90debcaa35db029cf0a.pngimage.thumb.png.79bf7c8bac3f0822066ea23d7fc71a7e.png

 

Oh dear Guy's brother.

What does week 2 show

 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Edit - Removed charts 

 

Oh dear Guy's brother.

Guys brother ?? I’m not following oram I having a dump moment ? And there looking good . 👌

Edited by ICE COLD

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

Guys brother ?? I’m not following oram I having a dump moment ? And there looking good . 👌

Chris Fawkes.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Chris Fawkes.

Oh ok got ya 😂. Looking like Greenland high is definitely the way forward. 👌

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30 minutes ago, shaky said:

What does week 2 show

 

Pretty much the same as the extended eps.

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1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Weather forecasting/interpretation seems to boil down to two broad overarching factors: direction of travel and timing. That simplifies it a lot - but from a macroscale perspective seems about right. Timing has been a bit of an issue this winter so far but direction of travel not. All signs now are that we are heading into an expected spell of weather that might be notable and could be quite long lasting, always given the potential for milder interludes as the pattern waxes and wanes. The vortex doesn't show any sign in the extended modelling of regathering itself quickly, and once we have a pattern that helps reinforce the creation of a northern block from above the fading impacts of the pacific signal as we approach the end of the month wont matter so much.

This is a fabulous EPS anomaly for 14th Jan - not because in itself it screams of snowmageddon on the 14th Jan but because, given forecast impacts of strat with one daughter sitting over eastern Europe/Russia and a modelled strat ridge ploughing straight through what has neatly been called "Griceland" there is really only one way the charts can move from here. Continental cold incoming. And for a 10 day ENS anomaly that is a fairly strong signal out west.

ecmwf-ens_z50f0a_nhem_11.thumb.png.6ae3e4d84819d12a3c49a71e39aed0d6.png

 

 

great chart.so its only going one way which is cold and wintry .thanks

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I'm about to hide a whole load of posts of weatherbell discussion as they aren't relevent to the model thread.. Please keep on topic....

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3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'll take it! Hopefully, just the beginning of a wonderful spell...?:santa-emoji:

image.thumb.png.4d640fd7009bd6a22bafad3eac173177.png

Yes indeed Pete, and synoptically looking on the money.  No phantom easterly....time for that later in winter.  

For me it has at last already properly begun, 4c max temp here, v cold tomight.  Then we look towards 7-10 for first trough, still some movement in that re a west or east shift as it moves SE into Europe.  Then the topple but with cold surface remaining (important as we want the retrogression to allow the next and main PV displacement bringing very cold pM abd then aM airmass as per 06z.

We are in a much stronger position now....steady as she goes.

 

BFTP

 

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Guest
Posted (edited)

Afternoon folks. Had some bad news just before new year and got myself in a bit of a state. Possibly drank to much and then came on here. That was wrong I was wrong. I would like to apologise for that and say sorry if I upset or offended anybody. Although things are still not good we do have hope and hope is better than nothing... now did I see somebody mention SNAW??

Edited by Guest

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7 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I'm about to hide a whole load of posts of weatherbell discussion as they aren't relevent to the model thread.. Please keep on topic....

Always enjoy reading  your posts, any chance you could let us know your thoughts for mid January onwards and if you think we remain on track once you've done the housekeeping ☺🖒❄

Thanks.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Afternoon folks. Had some bad news just before new year and got myself in a bit of a state. Possibly drank to much and then came on here. That was wrong I was wrong. I would like to apologise for that and say sorry if I upset or offended anybody. Although things are still not good we do have hope and hope is better than nothing... now did I see somebody mention SNAW??

nope you imagined it during your moment of non clarity!!!!!🤣Hope you well

Edited by swfc

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just a question for the more informed on here.Is it possible that all the blocking over the uk and across the atlantic at day ten is already a recaction in regard to the ssw ete and that's has good as it gets going forward.Atlantic is almost non excitant in regard its movement west to east .just a thought ?

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Posted (edited)

ICON looks ok day 8, ready to get colder.

B6D8F45C-2FF7-4B99-9A69-A12007510B55.png

I wonder if we can get another upgrade on the GFS.

Edited by Ali1977

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7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ICON looks ok day 8, ready to get colder.

B6D8F45C-2FF7-4B99-9A69-A12007510B55.png

high will sink to much energy over top .granted its subject to change but its a fail on that run imo

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3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I usually use the American ones but the static ones are not available, These show above average to the NW but thats not all bad as this can be indicative of Atlantic blocking.

image.thumb.png.832c23d0bb82e35009ea7d110aa2b211.png

There are local ones in among the weekly EPS you regularly post.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2019/01/03/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_msl_sst_anom.html

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Well, well, well...It's going to snow! Gav's latest video:

The tide is turning...

 

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17 minutes ago, swfc said:

just a question for the more informed on here.Is it possible that all the blocking over the uk and across the atlantic at day ten is already a recaction in regard to the ssw ete and that's has good as it gets going forward.Atlantic is almost non excitant in regard its movement west to east .just a thought ?

Nope - the blocking existed before the ssw occurred 

the slow down in predicted trop zonal flow (remember there were plenty of week 2 charts which would have us in a strong wsw flow early next week ) is likely a response to the delay in MJO progression and the general slow down in strat zonal flow ahead of the reversal 

i would offer the viewpoint that the increased mobility approaching mid month is a consequence of the ssw as the polar high forces the jet furthers south and the reversal wave working down flushes some stronger zonal winds into the trop ahead of the reversal getting down - it establishes above 75N - no surprise with a polar high sitting just the other side of the pole !

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, swfc said:

just a question for the more informed on here.Is it possible that all the blocking over the uk and across the atlantic at day ten is already a recaction in regard to the ssw ete and that's has good as it gets going forward.Atlantic is almost non excitant in regard its movement west to east .just a thought ?

Unlikely as the public models do not have the height resolution to include the stratosphere.

Post above is good (by chrino) and is all about where the effects might be (public models will pick this up when it hits the trop).

Unfortunately the model viewing is like a slow motion car crash, and I doubt there will be any switch by the ensembles within 5 days. Slowly slowly catch the monkey.

 

Edited by DCee

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nope - the blocking existed before the ssw occurred 

the slow down in predicted trop zonal flow (remember there were plenty of week 2 charts which would have us in a strong wsw flow early next week ) is likely a response to the delay in MJO progression and the general slow down in strat zonal flow ahead of the reversal 

i would offer the viewpoint that the increased mobility approaching mid month is a consequence of the ssw as the polar high forces the jet furthers south and the reversal wave working down flushes some stronger zonal winds into the trop ahead of the reversal getting down - it establishes above 75N - no surprise with a polar high sitting just the other side of the pole !

PM PM PM...

Key ingredient starter to the banquet 🙂

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