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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Guessing that’s London, in this flow the North will be 2/3c colder I imagine 

Yup- i would imagine so..

I'd be interested to hear from GP for example if he is on - side with thoughts of the jet heading into Europe and Atlantic height rises mid term..

edit: i see they are for NW England..

Edited by northwestsnow

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Even us south coast toe dippers will be feeling the cold if the 06z is anything to go by 🥶

9E0FB261-014E-4FBD-8B5C-9205124AD489.thumb.gif.39cfbfabaf7e3df08af034c3d736374c.gif

Op was a peach uk wide! 

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No its North West England.

but London

image.thumb.png.22f955b346f8d756d964600f9505f98d.png

These not as inspiring though it must be said.

image.thumb.png.6daf15510e0589bcfd8463a65126c761.png

The eps only go to 18th and are 51 rather than 21 members 

extrapolate the gefs out and wouldn’t be so different 

also, the additional number of runs is likely to mean more members revert to climatology the further out they go 

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25 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Posts now popping up regarding snow showers as early as tuesday when only a couple of hours ago there were bullish posts re. no chance of snow next week, some saying there never was. This is much before day 10 even tho snow is notoriously hard to predict.

I'd have thought that snow has always been on-the-cards for sometime next week...the real uncertainty is, in which form will it be: potentially thundery showers or nothing more than a few coastal snow grains...?🤔

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps only go to 18th and are 51 rather than 21 members 

extrapolate the gefs out and wouldn’t be so different 

also, the additional number of runs is likely to mean more members revert to climatology the further out they go 

Yes true, plus with the urban heat effect N/NW winds (which i presume most are) the Max temps wouldn't be sub zero, and yes eps go out a day less and are less sensitive to this pattern change generally anyway so i agree.

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It feels like a long time since i experienced a true polar north wester...

Really hoping for one soon..

Please could anyone post the irish sea temps im not sure where to find them..

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Posted (edited)

Another potential slidergate saga? I like slidergate sagas::yahoo:

image.thumb.png.de56a12c54328b164176893531ab1d13.pngimage.thumb.png.c06abef3e82021254bec7d93fad0d5f9.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It feels like a long time since i experienced a true polar north wester...

Really hoping for one soon..

Please could anyone post the irish sea temps im not sure where to find them..

 

301A9651-91C2-45EC-9E3E-66D48E08887D.png

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It feels like a long time since i experienced a true polar north wester...

Really hoping for one soon..

Please could anyone post the irish sea temps im not sure where to find them..

https://www.windy.com/menu?sst,52.620,-2.114,5,m:e7Zaf0S

 

we won’t see NWSNOW now for the next two hours while he gets lost in windys eye candy

Edited by Skyraker

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It feels like a long time since i experienced a true polar north wester...

Really hoping for one soon..

Please could anyone post the irish sea temps im not sure where to find them..

Try this: https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/

Observed temps appear c. 1.5 degrees above average e.g. Llandudno Jan average 7.4, current 8.9

 

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It feels like a long time since i experienced a true polar north wester...

Really hoping for one soon..

Please could anyone post the irish sea temps im not sure where to find them..

I usually use the American ones but the static ones are not available, These show above average to the NW but thats not all bad as this can be indicative of Atlantic blocking.

image.thumb.png.832c23d0bb82e35009ea7d110aa2b211.png

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It feels like a long time since i experienced a true polar north wester...

Really hoping for one soon..

Please could anyone post the irish sea temps im not sure where to find them..

Also available on Meteociel

sstuk.thumb.gif.65861c35d59aa58260252f72e39fa8ce.gif

Anomaly also available for Europe view, warmer than average around UK apart from North Sea:

sstEurope_anom_2019-01-03.thumb.png.7e3ac555d299411156a00cbf9a1b1102.png

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6 minutes ago, Selliso said:

Try this: https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/

Observed temps appear c. 1.5 degrees above average e.g. Llandudno Jan average 7.4, current 8.9

 

Oh dear, that's quite high but it shouldn't surprise us based on how mild December was!

We will need a northwesterly with -10c uppers which is hard to get.

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06Z GEFS 850 ensemble for London: cold snap next week looks almost certain, now; and there are also a lot of cold/very cold members post-Jan 16th...one upgrade after another?

image.thumb.png.a734ca1808e3bfaae7e0220422979377.png

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22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It feels like a long time since i experienced a true polar north wester...

Really hoping for one soon..

Please could anyone post the irish sea temps im not sure where to find them..

If we get a true polar flow (not modified by the Irish Sea too much) then that is akin to hitting the jackpot.

Think Dec 2010 at first 👍

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6F6CCC78-015F-455D-9E81-55A3AB65A23B.thumb.jpeg.7383adee203f5a6dc68ea44baeb816b2.jpegcold end to jan early feb gathering pace. 👍

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6 minutes ago, terrier said:

6F6CCC78-015F-455D-9E81-55A3AB65A23B.thumb.jpeg.7383adee203f5a6dc68ea44baeb816b2.jpegcold end to jan early feb gathering pace. 👍

Not that great surely? With Northern and Western parts with no anomalies temperatures and parts of England only 1 or 2 degrees below normal? 

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not that great surely? With Northern and Western parts with no anomalies temperatures and parts of England only 1 or 2 degrees below normal? 

Isn't that a weekly average ?

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Isn't that a weekly average ?

Yes week 3 and 4 so basically last week of jan 1st week of feb. Looks pretty good to me 🥶 

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1 minute ago, terrier said:

Yes week 3 and 4 so basically last week of jan 1st week of feb. Looks pretty good to me 🥶 

Sounds good to me too, but just wait for the posts saying "O noe. It carnt be proper snow in Febrary coz the sun iz too strong. It haz to be Desember!! Zomg, winter iz over"

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58 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It feels like a long time since i experienced a true polar north wester...

Really hoping for one soon..

Please could anyone post the irish sea temps im not sure where to find them..

Aye, 3 GFS operationals on the trot going for it, starting around 14th, love true NW'lys, but they are so rare, but hate half hearted ones with say -6 uppers

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