Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Much better from GFS. This evolution looks much more logical to me. I suspect it will have support from the GEFS as well when they have rolled out.

Only thing for newbies and lurkers to be mindful of though is that these northerly plunges tend to look more dramatic on the charts than they will feel in reality (ie cold but dry away from Scotland and north facing coasts). Its what follows after the northerly(s) that might be more notable.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, swfc said:

Indeed the frustration levels are something to be hold lol.When or if would you expect the wind reversal to show up on the mo ie signals for an imprint on the nhp.tia

I think the reversal, or the start of the effects of, are now showing up. I’m not convinced they are going to be modelled very well though. Hence why the to’ing and fro’ing with the output as new start data gets entered each time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the tropical forcings and the SSW effects the 06z GFS seems a very logical progression. The current background signals have always seemed more appropriate to northerly outbreak than an easterly. To start with  at least.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some beefy wintry showers for the North and East, come Tuesday/Wednesday...

image.thumb.png.929ecc182d671489fd58ed221458256c.png

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Given the tropical forcings and the SSW effects the 06z GFS seems a very logical progression. The current background signals have always seemed more appropriate to northerly outbreak than an easterly. To start with  at least.

Yes, stil slightly concerned whether the full monty will properly downwell but if it does, N'ly - Ne'ly to E'ly is the logical progression and the best thing about that is there will be no doubt by late Feb that the uppers will be hugely negative by late Feb, that inn my opinion was always going to be the progression if we are going to get a proper spell, so i was never worrying about any short term fix around 10th Jan, if it happened then great, if not.....................

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Is it the dip around the 10th that’s new or that the numbers prior to the10th aren’t now as low as forecast previously ??

Definitely new. -20 added to scale. Quite a dramatic drop as well, hardly noticed at all either by any ens beforehand. Here is the previous output (roughly in line with the previous few as well)

AAA85831-88BC-4128-8072-0AC65E75C263.thumb.png.a54e97e64a08157153d0ec0b67f707db.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, snowfish1 said:

What's the longevity of the ssw and what charts can be trusted to reflect this duration or are they as open to change as the models themselves on a strat and trop basis as they appear to be now? 

Longevity there to see on that chart, currently 3 weeks +, which is incredible. Open to change of course. I would be surprised if it does last quite that long personally.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, stil slightly concerned whether the full monty will properly downwell but if it does, N'ly - Ne'ly to E'ly is the logical progression and the best thing about that is there will be no doubt by late Feb that the uppers will be hugely negative by late Feb, that inn my opinion was always going to be the progression if we are going to get a proper spell, so i was never worrying about any short term fix around 10th Jan, if it happened then great, if not.....................

We briefly discussed this a week or two ago by PM, im sure we agreed the evolution to watch was PM airflow as the trigger - for mid Jan onwards as the jet buckles..

🙂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, s4lancia said:

Longevity there to see on that chart, currently 3 weeks +, which is incredible. Open to change of course. I would be surprised if it does last quite that long personally.

With an expected uptick in EA mountain torque though, the strat vortex may never fully recover enough to imprint a -AO - -NAO signal on the trop for the rest of winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

We briefly discussed this a week or two ago by PM, im sure we agreed the evolution to watch was PM airflow as the trigger - for mid Jan onwards as the jet buckles..

🙂

Yes and as that fits the strat profile, its actually a much safer route, there looks to be no west based -NAO risk here as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Looks like ensemble 13 is the COBRA run from short-medium term, arctic heights prominent on pretty much every ensemble expect some chaos and more mouth watering charts soon mid to long term.

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=13&mode=1&carte=0

Edited by Weathizard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEFS control a very good match for opp at 264. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Sorry i meant +AO / NAO in second  last post.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Just part of the game, 99% percent of people know charts at day 10 rarely verify but we all enjoy the chase.

Posts now popping up regarding snow showers as early as tuesday when only a couple of hours ago there were bullish posts re. no chance of snow next week, some saying there never was. This is much before day 10 even tho snow is notoriously hard to predict.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GEFS control a very good match for opp at 264. 

The mean will be down to -5c 850s later on in this suite - UPGRADE!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

With an expected uptick in EA mountain torque though, the strat vortex may never fully recover enough to imprint a +AO / NAO signal on the trop for the rest of winter. (as subsequently corrected by Feb)

The coldest month of the last seven years was a March!  If what we are seeing on the models from mid month starts verifying, it looks like we might finally get not just one, but two actual winter months which are colder!

Edited by Timmytour
To incorporate Feb's correction to his post

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definition of a COBRA run, seems to all stem from far more energy going under the block and helping it be propped up for a few days at the key point, Atlantic dead and buried.

3497B9C5-9DA0-42D0-AC73-496B7255B55F.png

D0385F71-28B8-42BD-999D-30F64249D280.png

F9C82570-2F2B-442E-84C2-F0828A7C66D9.png

4A827AFA-CCF1-4357-BACB-9E93FE44EA36.png

F8AC4EAE-1B63-4C94-BD65-E81D48310283.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A case of waiting now- All eyes to the west/north west in around 7/8 days to see Atlantic ridging, and then all eyes on sea temps to our west/north west as they will also play a big part in any modification, so crucial to those in the north west..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whitney we have lift off!!

image.thumb.png.e5382a646bdf1d2e469c76d6cd07c966.png

GEFS sniffing out the PM flow..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh and i will just run this past you, these are the things we need to be seeing for a continuation into February.

image.thumb.png.9add298b3cd656093643f533483812b2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS sniffing out the PM flow..

Guessing that’s London, in this flow the North will be 2/3c colder I imagine 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Guessing that’s London, in this flow the North will be 2/3c colder I imagine 

No its North West England.

but London

image.thumb.png.22f955b346f8d756d964600f9505f98d.png

These not as inspiring though it must be said.

image.thumb.png.6daf15510e0589bcfd8463a65126c761.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...