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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.ac39886a87db63cc15a371fdb60a9cb3.png

That’s looks v good, is this the key date. Hopefully as im at 600 feet in cumbria for a week 😬

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.ac39886a87db63cc15a371fdb60a9cb3.png

This second ridge attempt is far more likely to occur too given the Strat forecasts for that time.

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Oh hi Northern Europe. My name is polar vortex, pleased to meet you. 

gfsnh-0-252.png

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Possible over simplicity alert on this brief post but - what we're seeing is the reversal making its way down too far away to be of immediate use, but then the tropical forcing bringing us a means of making it useful after all via a connection from the N. Atlantic starting near D10. Models will struggle with the stability of this formation.

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Posted (edited)

Incoming!....☃️

4119E56D-DF1A-4BA4-A453-E58E26A60890.png

3BA62D3B-8946-40F7-91B4-9F848014AA61.png

Edited by Tim Bland

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

Incoming!....☃️

4119E56D-DF1A-4BA4-A453-E58E26A60890.png

Yes, snorter coming up here, not just for the North West either, this will be a decent run for everyone.

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Incoming!....☃️

4119E56D-DF1A-4BA4-A453-E58E26A60890.png

Model seems stuck but I imagine an epic Northerly by day 13 - with -10/12 uppers.

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Model seems stuck but I imagine an epic Northerly by day 13 - with -10/12 uppers.

Has the govt shutdown in murka affected GFS FI

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Possible over simplicity alert on this brief post but - what we're seeing is the reversal making its way down too far away to be of immediate use, but then the tropical forcing bringing us a means of making it useful after all via a connection from the N. Atlantic starting near D10. Models will struggle with the stability of this formation.

As the MJO is moved speedily through Phase 7 according to the ECM and is not particularly amplified in either 7 or 8, which other tropical forcing will be helping us in circa 10 days time, please?

 

image.thumb.png.ed672db3c4ccd6c0765666aba4a57097.png

Edited by mountain shadow

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Model seems stuck but I imagine an epic Northerly by day 13 - with -10/12 uppers.

Yes look at that wave forming, big snow event coming up here.

image.thumb.png.2742d66d99876186abf215fbae69ef31.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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The run has finished but seems stuck on Meteociel. The old fashioned way still works:

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=384&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

The high eventually collapses into Europe but pressure build to the NE looks likely thereafter. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

As the MJO is moved speedily through Phase 7 according to the ECM and is not particularly amplified in either 7 or 8, which other tropical forcing will be helping us in circa 10 days time?

 

image.thumb.png.ed672db3c4ccd6c0765666aba4a57097.png

Not to be taken at face value; this depiction is expected to be too fast to decay the MJO, and a bit too low on amplitude too.

In any case, high AAM and GWO orbits P5-6-0 will be at work. Also lags to be accounted for.

Edited by Singularity

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The GFS in low res doesn't give us the proper Greenie High and forces a trough the corridor of death but at least it's something to look forward too.

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😳😀

790448D1-A2F6-4FA5-86DD-67A3139776B6.png

EBA7A00F-E956-4677-8150-3EFA544F4A93.png

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I'll take it! Hopefully, just the beginning of a wonderful spell...?:santa-emoji:

image.thumb.png.4d640fd7009bd6a22bafad3eac173177.png

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Looks like a January sale ‘buy one get one free” on northerlies. At the end of the run you can see the next one lining up for a few days later 

99682AC3-71FF-4892-A625-FFA11C7BED58.png

863D2114-C8B0-41B2-96A4-52BAC90FE967.png

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Lots of snow in Scotland on the 06z, good news for the ski resorts if it was to verify.

1000964517_gfs-1-312-Copy.thumb.png.e57fa3707f7d2a071d7c800db0ce5751.png

1006439613_gfs-2-276-Copy.thumb.png.1f6ea66c8c5f477157a8fff7e39d8683.png

gfs-16-324.thumb.png.548a35b92c2e59006df37730e5fddc08.png

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C’mon Ens, back that up 👌

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My brain hurts. It simply can't comprehend people dealing in absolutes when there is so much uncertainty at present. How can people be so sure the eye candy charts of yesterday won't reappear in the near future?

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Just now, Stonethecrows said:

My brain hurts. It simply can't comprehend people dealing in absolutes when there is so much uncertainty at present. How can people be so sure the eye candy charts of yesterday won't reappear in the near future?

They cant!!!! The models are changing every run and has you say know one is certain beyond 7 days in forecasting the outcome imo

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4 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

My brain hurts. It simply can't comprehend people dealing in absolutes when there is so much uncertainty at present. How can people be so sure the eye candy charts of yesterday won't reappear in the near future?

Just part of the game, 99% percent of people know charts at day 10 rarely verify but we all enjoy the chase.

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5 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

My brain hurts. It simply can't comprehend people dealing in absolutes when there is so much uncertainty at present. How can people be so sure the eye candy charts of yesterday won't reappear in the near future?

There is no absolutes in meteorology / forecasting, that’s what makes it interesting! Members are simply commenting on what various output shows, not saying any of it is 100% correct. At the moment there is more uncertainty than usual due to the SSW but there is always a raft of options beyond day 5.

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