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phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I think there's a fundamental lack of understanding regarding the capabilities of models if you can't see the difference between forecasting low level cloud on a local scale, compared to longer term, broader patterns. They're worlds apart, and just because it's immensely difficult to accurately predict cloud cover does not mean the models or forecasters are clueless.

Sadly you're right Nick, and the professionals like you get undeserved criticism for not predicting with 100% accuracy local scale conditions. It's a fundamental lack of understanding of forecasting in general. 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cheers, things could come forward a little then. Hopefully the new EPS suite is on the money and things start getting interesting around day 10 of the 12zs

Btw, we aren’t talking about a convincing ridge trough scenario ..... more a broad trough with systems coming into the feature  - the track of these systems will obviously by crucial to surface conditions re white/wet .......and ebb/flow detail of Atlantic ridging important here too

Edited by bluearmy
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16 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I think there's a fundamental lack of understanding regarding the capabilities of models if you can't see the difference between forecasting low level cloud on a local scale, compared to longer term, broader patterns. They're worlds apart, and just because it's immensely difficult to accurately predict cloud cover does not mean the models or forecasters are clueless.

Very true Nick

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Same old story !

For those that followed my 4 hurdles yesterday unfortunately we only managed to get over one !

As ever trying to get sufficient  jet cut back into the Low Countries was a hurdle too far.

Looks like a good call by the UKMO output . When the models start flattening the ridge there’s normally no way back. Unless there’s a bit more amplification upstream at the key time frame then a brief ne flow is the best on offer .

We now move on to the search for the Holy Grail , part 232 ! 

The word potential has been cremated by now but the outputs still show that moving forward .

We live in hope !

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Same old story !

For those that followed my 4 hurdles yesterday unfortunately we only managed to get over one !

As ever trying to get sufficient  jet cut back into the Low Countries was a hurdle too far.

Looks like a good call by the UKMO output . When the models start flattening the ridge there’s normally no way back. Unless there’s a bit more amplification upstream at the key time frame then a brief ne flow is the best on offer .

We now move on to the search for the Holy Grail , part 232 ! 

The word potential has been cremated by now but the outputs still show that moving forward .

We live in hope !

Come on own up, who told the family/friends there could be snow next week? Thats the truest kiss of death, I bet someone did🤭 

Yeah, as usual when the models move away from what we want they very rarely move back, attention turning to medium range again.

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I think there's a fundamental lack of understanding regarding the capabilities of models if you can't see the difference between forecasting low level cloud on a local scale, compared to longer term, broader patterns. They're worlds apart, and just because it's immensely difficult to accurately predict cloud cover does not mean the models or forecasters are clueless.

Sorry Nick, if it came down like that, I did not mean to compare the two (trust me, I understand the difference) and did not say they are clueless. I merely pointed out that the forecast changes as the model output changes so anything can happen mid term (it is still true that this weeks sunny days forecast on uk level was a failure - I should have mentioned it in the moans thread). This however is nothing to do with the macrosynoptics of course. 😂  I am grateful to be able to learn from all of you here. 😊

Edited by rain_shadow
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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Come on own up, who told the family/friends there could be snow next week? Thats the truest kiss of death, I bet someone did🤭 

Yeah, as usual when the models move away from what we want they very rarely move back, attention turning to medium range again.

That would have been me telling my little boy... The trouble is that I get more excited about snow than he does and I'm in my 40s lol. Sorry ❄❄❄

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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Come on own up, who told the family/friends there could be snow next week? 

Not me. I stated on here numerous times why the ridge would fail.

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2 minutes ago, rain_shadow said:

Sorry Nick, if it came down like that, I did not mean to compare the two (trust me, I understand the difference) and did not say they are clueless. I merely pointed out that the forecast changes as the model output changes so anything can happen mid term (it is still true that this weeks sunny days forecast on uk level was a failure - I should have mentioned it in the moans thread). This however is nothing to do with the macrosynoptics of course. 😂  I am grateful to be able to learn from all of you here. 😊

Not at all! 🙂 As my job primarily involves forecasting road temperatures, the hopelessness of the models in correctly predicting cloud amounts the last few days has left me somewhat stressed ha. I posted a chart from the Met Office UKV model in the winter moans thread yesterday to illustrate just how bad it's been.

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1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Not at all! 🙂 As my job primarily involves forecasting road temperatures, the hopelessness of the models in correctly predicting cloud amounts the last few days has left me somewhat stressed ha. I posted a chart from the Met Office UKV model in the winter moans thread yesterday to illustrate just how bad it's been.

Gota say what was meant to be a cold crisp clear high ended up the total opposite!!the last couple of week here in the midlands has been so dull its unreal!!its just adds insult to injury of this sorrry state of a winter we having!!

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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Come on own up, who told the family/friends there could be snow next week? Thats the truest kiss of death, I bet someone did🤭 

Yeah, as usual when the models move away from what we want they very rarely move back, attention turning to medium range again.

The easterly on offer even if it did materialize wasn’t great . Convective snow potential wasn’t there . We never saw the depth of cold to fire up the North Sea . 

It’s disappointing but thankfully we weren’t forecast a week in New York and ended up in Skegness . 

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Not a huge amount of change comparing outputs from the last week or so. A slight colder trend in the 850 temp output, perhaps? A slight delay in the snow risk signal, although a stronger signal for risk from 9th Jan now...

Reasons to remain cheerful, I would suggest, although we may need to be patient until February...

gefs.thumb.JPG.df9f7b0627f3ac318a1437f63f00fe97.JPGGEFS2019-1-2.thumb.JPG.b763de299855fea2920017428e698fdd.JPGgefs2019-1-4.thumb.JPG.5581957394719011f95018f082f414f0.JPG

I wonder if this is starting to take on the shape of  several winters I remember in the 1990s, with northwesterly/northerly shots bringing significant cooling.

Some memorable rain-to-snow events and battleground frontal snow that I remember.

I certainly remember Christmas Day in t-shirts then too! And Back to School in Jan or Feb with school closing early and buses not running.

Answers on a postcard. 

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1 hour ago, rain_shadow said:

Oh the BBC FORECAST...They could not correctly forecast this week on Monday, never mind next week. What happened to the sunny days with frost? 1 day sun on Wed and then low cloud is back. I did not hear them to say sorry. 🤔

The models are changing from run to run as the cold air in Central Eu generates mediterranean cyclones which are unpredictable. Probably the next run will be colder again. I can only repeat the mantra: "More patience needed." Often, big surprises just pop out of "nowhere". Did we see the BFTE last year this time? No. 🙂

RS, ones viewpoint must depend to some extent where you live - down here in Dorset we have been enjoying some wonderful, still, sunny days since New Years Day and cold frosty nights (just as forecast from well before Christmas). Had it been windy we would have felt very cold (wind chill). Before Christmas we endured weeks of wet and overcast days so this spell of dry wintery weather is most welcome and lifts the spirits. I tend not to post on such matters as I realise this is a IMBY issue but overall I think the charts have been pretty good.

Every time we get a SSW there are what appear to be violent swings between successive outputs but a common theme is that when the deep cold (and snow for that matter) arrives it might only have 48 hrs firm warning.

Given the consistency of (general) model output for changes in Troposheric conditions to occur some time around 15th Jan I am continuing to look from that date to the end of January for what I consider 'real excitement'. I remain confident that we shall experience deep cold and snow for many and a personal hope is that we get embedded deep cold and a decent Channel low to thrill the counties on that seaboard as has featured in one or two of the FI charts. Now that is both IMBY and FI but living down here you have to clutch at straws for snow and that has always been the case. 

In summary I wouldn't be surprised if something really interesting crops up with two days warning at any point from now onwards but will not trust longer range patterns until downwelling is firmly modelled (thinking model output runs from the middle of next week for 15th onwards). 

Egret

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If it of any worth icon slightly more amplified again!!

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The easterly on offer even if it did materialize wasn’t great . Convective snow potential wasn’t there . We never saw the depth of cold to fire up the North Sea . 

It’s disappointing but thankfully we weren’t forecast a week in New York and ended up in Skegness . 

I’d take a weekend at butlins at this winters rate! It’s like pulling teeth as usual trying to get what we want, still it does feel seasonal at the moment which is nice given how unwintry it’s felt pretty much all winter. Patience is a virtue, but mine is waring thin.

Edited by Weathizard
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Just now, shaky said:

If it of any worth icon slightly more amplified again!!

Yes a better jet cut back , and the PV lobe over ne Canada pulled further to the nw .

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

If it of any worth icon slightly more amplified again!!

I feel a big day of upgrades, slight ones next week on the colder 850s but no real chance of snow, then big ones around the 14/15th with some proper pronounced Northerlies. 

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes a better jet cut back , and the PV lobe over ne Canada pulled further to the nw .

Is it me nick or are we gettin in that pattern of again of less amplified morning runs but then more amplified evening runs again!!

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10 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I didn't share the excitement of yesterdays output hence why I never bothered posting. The E,ly shown was never going to be sustained or especially cold.

If you're seeking cold & snow then look to the North from around the 16th Jan onwards!

Great having you back... 

Could you tell me why the 16th onwards stands out for you... 

By the way, I haven't seen many seagulls flying around yet ☺

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I didn't share the excitement of yesterdays output hence why I never bothered posting. The E,ly shown was never going to be sustained or especially cold.

If you're seeking cold & snow then look to the North from around the 16th Jan onwards!

Yes always thought that.

Even the better runs would have brought an inch or 2 to the far south east at best.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Is it me nick or are we gettin in that pattern of again of less amplified morning runs but then more amplified evening runs again!!

That has happened before. The thing is the models all broadly agree that the ridge will sink . It’s whether we can squeeze out a bit more ne push of that before it starts to sink .

 

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is it me nick or are we gettin in that pattern of again of less amplified morning runs but then more amplified evening runs again!!

9am evening? Depends how much you’ve  had?!! Haha.

ICON is significantly more amplified at day 5,  would have been nice to have seen past that stage, let’s see what the GFS has for us shortly.

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes always thought that.

Even the better runs would have brought an inch or 2 to the far south east at best.

Not to be sniffed at - that would have rated as a 7/10 winter for us in the South east!

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