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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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15 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The ECM day 9/10 looks alright but it’s a drab cold rain set up for most, this run is the first run I’ve seen that projects well with the MO view of how we will progress in the midterm which is oddly unsettling.

Little bit disappointed with the operational outputs overnight

I think it looks alright because it would move forwards to colder conditions. 

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I think it looks alright because it would move forwards to colder conditions. 

Aren’t you getting sick of the sight of day 10 charts with potential? The longer that goes on the more of winter gets wasted!

Thats not to say there’s nothing possible as looking at the ensembles there’s a real wide envelope of possibilities, just concerning to see a ECM op run suddenly back the MO view.

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1 hour ago, The BEAST From The East said:

So this is the reason they did the forecast that they did then.. they were only saying what they were seeing for next week.. 

Such a shame that this always happens to us all with great model outputs yesterday evening and overnight then the following morning we get all the downgrades..... we deserve some luck..

Hopefully things will turn back around later for us coldies.. ☺

Oh the BBC FORECAST...They could not correctly forecast this week on Monday, never mind next week. What happened to the sunny days with frost? 1 day sun on Wed and then low cloud is back. I did not hear them to say sorry. ?

The models are changing from run to run as the cold air in Central Eu generates mediterranean cyclones which are unpredictable. Probably the next run will be colder again. I can only repeat the mantra: "More patience needed." Often, big surprises just pop out of "nowhere". Did we see the BFTE last year this time? No. ?

Edited by rain_shadow
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9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Aren’t you getting sick of the sight of day 10 charts with potential? The longer that goes on the more of winter gets wasted!

Thats not to say there’s nothing possible as looking at the ensembles there’s a real wide envelope of possibilities, just concerning to see a ECM op run suddenly back the MO view.

Not yet. Mid January onwards has always been the point of interest for me and this would match well with that time frame. 

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The models are clueless at present. They are swinging back and forth I would say in a setup like this don't take a run in isolation. They will probably change back on the 12z alot to be resolved. I  would say the ssw is causing model volatility. 

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As expected, it's a repeating pattern, little change in the output. The oscillating high giving a brief opportunity for dragging in some cold uppers, last week the same thing, where there was interest over that topple for yesterday. In the end, it was rather tame, another repeating pattern! Understandable, as this Winter has been a non-event to date and it is wearing as the days' tick by. 

From my point of view, it looks like the running theme will not be good for the initial trop response to the SSW. With the main grunt of the trop PV over the Atlantic side, along with the Russian High and the Atlantic ridge (also Pacific Ridge), until that PV gets broken up it will simply arc back and forwards to our north and any effort for ridging north is met with stern resistance.

Again the GEFS at D16 is showing no proclivity towards solid HLB in our sector:

gens_panel_gxh9.png

Possibly just background noise those that show hope, and no clear signal for a change?

As for D10 ECM charts, well the less said the better! I also class the GFSp in that bracket, according to that model this winter should have been a snow-fest already!

The good news is the trend for a colder more seasonal upper air flow (UK high sinking over time post D8) and that will be an advantage going forward for little surprises.

For the London region: graphe9_1000_315_141___.thumb.gif.cbdae58c07b30c969e1ad81ec4478709.gif

So the wait continues for the more interesting developments post-SSW, mid to late Jan.

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1 hour ago, KTtom said:

My only issue is that ec46 week 3 and 4 have looked amazing since the end of November, so, I'm struggling to maintain any confidence in it.

On the plus side, the greenie high does look the most favoured if we do finally get a HLB with constant agreement of a deep trough over Scandinavia...wonder if a trip to sweeden might be on the cards.? 

To clarify the ec46 doesn’t really bring the cold in until post 23/25th month ..... and it’s a general sinking of the storm track as heights rise to the north

a mean of 51 without view of clusters is difficult to assess closely 

at the moment I expect the sustained ridging to end up griceland rather than Greenland ......we shall see and hope that we get the nw/we jet to deliver earlier than the 46 indicates ... the gefs still happy with 15/20th on the mean 

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14 minutes ago, rain_shadow said:

Oh the BBC FORECAST...They could not correctly forecast this week on Monday, never mind next week. What happened to the sunny days with frost? 1 day sun on Wed and then low cloud is back. I did not hear them to say sorry. ?

The models are changing from run to run as the cold air in Central Eu generates mediterranean cyclones which are unpredictable. Probably the next run will be colder again. I can only repeat the mantra: "More patience needed." Often, big surprises just pop out of "nowhere". Did we see the BFTE last year this time? No. ?

You are talking more micro whereas the pattern is macro. Whether we get low cloud or clear skies, we are still under a blocking high

 

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean day 10

image.thumb.png.c14126eb24a1f6ce13f0c51a1c61c678.png

Again, only my opinion but slowly but surely the jet is moving into Europe..

I'm not downbeat at all, the ridge next week was never really going to deliver..

It is .... this suite accelerates the retrogression of the mid Atlantic ridge and backs the scrussian trough more quickly ...... the op run looks right with the timing. ......mid month looking more than interesting across the ens suites 

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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You are talking more micro whereas the pattern is macro. Whether we get low cloud or clear skies, we are still under a blocking high

 

I know. ? but it won't last forever was my main message there and even the BBC forecasters cannot confidently say what will happen in 3 weeks time. I just pointed out on a separate note that "the experts" were unable to predict the cloud cover just 1 day ahead - the lack of sunshine is frustrating for some. ?

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It is .... this suite accelerates the retrogression of the mid Atlantic ridge and backs the scrussian trough more quickly ...... the op run looks right with the timing. ......mid month looking more than interesting across the ens suites 

Precisely why i'm not even remotely concerned, infact, quite the opposite .. ?

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my take this morning has thrown me out of prozac rehab of the fence with one foot on the ground.

after looking through the models today and yesterday there's no doubt in my mind that the general theme is cold then colder then cold and wintry stuff wont be thawed quickly either with the 2m ground temps staying cold after each colder attack northerly then easterly then reload classic 80s style winter finally incoming.

the anomaly plots from the ecm just show how intense this block with be with the back hole of calcutta even showing within the reliable timeframe.

add in the strat effects and its a win win situation even though the full effects of the stratosphere are not yet even in place.

as someone mentioned yesterday 2010 did not have a warming until later in the season and with added warmth this only helps destabilize an already beat up vortex.

might not be a record breaking winter but what a start to 2019 for the wintry cold hunting fans.

the gfs has massive segment of the polar vortex over europe and heights over and to our west.

once the vortex over the state side fragments and shifts the more likely we have the chance to get a northern block i still reckon greenland iceland or scandinavia ares are still all very much in the longer term forecast.

even the north pacific pdo is cooling of which is a feature i noticed in 09/10 winter although disregard this as a major player in these situations at this time anyway.

the only possibility could be that our heights drift to far east or everything mapped could be a little to far east although im only speculating atm.

its also equally or even more possible that things will shift further west which really would improve the chances of some deeper negative t850 temps.

although -4 upper air temps in the cold settled conditions will be great the -8 in unsettled condition is a god send.

but as it stands cold settled colder little more unsettled then cold with reloads possible as long as blocking is maintained.

even to the point a northwesterly would do the trick with enriched cold across most of the northern hemisphere.

and another point is that if the nao goes into negative territory then a west based nao looks extremely unlikely look at todays and yesterdays charts.

ed stones chart hit snow tune has done the trick i believe anyway.

i know ive only got one foot on the ground and one that's waiting to come of the fence,

that's because of the one worry i have and that we miss out due to europe getting it all and were stuck in the middle. 

but much much more positive atm anyway.

 

 

 

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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2 hours ago, The BEAST From The East said:

So this is the reason they did the forecast that they did then.. they were only saying what they were seeing for next week.. 

Such a shame that this always happens to us all with great model outputs yesterday evening and overnight then the following morning we get all the downgrades..... we deserve some luck..

Hopefully things will turn back around later for us coldies.. ☺

And as I pointed out yesterday - Id go with the Beeb over the models at this range any day - disappointing runs this morning it has to be said , but at least its not 5 weeks down the line.

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You are talking more micro whereas the pattern is macro. Whether we get low cloud or clear skies, we are still under a blocking high

 

Yes, and the job of BBC forecasts is to predict at the micro level. They failed and that's the point.

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Just now, Banbury said:

And as I pointed out yesterday - Id go with the Beeb over the models at this range any day - disappointing runs this morning it has to be said , but at least its not 5 weeks down the line.

Well as you kindly pointed out yesterday its all about opinions and i respect that, mine is we are moving inextricably to the honey pot..

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The opportunity for next week was always very limited. The ensembles never really showed much prospect of deep cold (other than the odd rogue run) and the opps were effectively showing a best case scenario within the existing pattern. The best on offer has always been a short spell of what years ago would have been called 'rather cold weather' with a bit of wintriness.  

As previously signposted the high looks to sink away with a period of mobility. Even yesterday, that was still largely being shown as the changes were to the short term positioning of the high rather than the expected long term pattern. Personally I think any mobile period will be very brief and even that could give some brief cold plunges from the north. We are still in a 100% better position than a few days ago where it just looked stagnant for weeks.

If we get something notable between say 20th Jan and 10th Feb, we still won't need to worry about increased solar input much. In many ways that's the perfect time to get the best synoptics as the balance between depth of cold and solar input is probably at its most optimal. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well as you kindly pointed out yesterday its all about opinions and i respect that, mine is we are moving inextricably to the honey pot..

I hope you are right mate and totally respect your opinion and enjoy reading your views. I will buy you a virtual pint if we get our Winter ?

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EC Monthly charts , supposedly from mid month but can’t see the dates. If we are talking mid month are things now looking better towards the 15th I wonder - if so I’m hoping for a good days chart viewing. 

117A1516-C835-412A-AE8E-E89DB0B8BE40.png

Anyone have the date windows for these? 

Edited by Ali1977
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5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I hope you are right mate and totally respect your opinion and enjoy reading your views. I will buy you a virtual pint if we get our Winter ?

I dont drink lol..

But thankyou Banbury, thats very kind of you..

As we know too well, nothing is set in stone, but for me, its all coming together now..

FWIW i'm thinking the change will come through the jet on a NW/SE axis into Europe with height rises in the N Atlantic..

ps my views are almost universally shamless ramping ?

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

EC Monthly charts , supposedly from mid month but can’t see the dates. If we are talking mid month are things now looking better towards the 15th I wonder - if so I’m hoping for a good days chart viewing. 

117A1516-C835-412A-AE8E-E89DB0B8BE40.png

Anyone have the date windows for these? 

The one on the left is w/e 28 th and the right w/e 4th so two weeks behind what some are thinking

The new eps suite looks to be a week ahead of that on the scrussian trough and the gefs look to be a week to ten days ahead on the blocking anomoly 

 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

The one on the left is w/e 28 th and the right w/e 4th so two weeks behind what some are thinking

The new eps suite looks to be a week ahead of that on the scrussian trough and the gefs look to be a week to ten days ahead on the blocking anomoly 

 

Cheers, things could come forward a little then. Hopefully the new EPS suite is on the money and things start getting interesting around day 10 of the 12zs

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