The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Mucka]

Yes all models going for basic toppler/glancing Northerly scenario this morning, no Easterly on the cards with GFSp and ECM to come (and GFS and ECM ensembles)

At least GFS still looks to be lining up a potent Northerly in FI

 

[Mucka]

Having to view GFS on Wetter but there she blows.

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Here come the downgrades. Icon is crud compared to its previous few excellent runs, what's in store for gfs soon. Winter 2018/19 still waiting for lift-off

UKMO no good either, too flat, gosh how hard is it to get decent cold in the uk

Oh forgot, gfs makes it a treble, of crud that is, just a toppler now, what a turnaround in 12 hours. 

So back to chasing shadows again in fl. This winter is beginning to feel like many winters of the past few decades where Northerly toppers lasting a couple of days was the best you could hope for. 

[Mucka]

Problems with GFS output this morning, Para now stuck on 66h

 

EDIT running now

Similar theme to the rest of the mornings output, brief glancing Northerly toppler scenario with no Easterly component

It is odd how the models shunted the Scandi trough West yesterday afternoon only to shunt it back East this morning.

Edited January 4, 2019 by Mucka

[snowangel32]

Yh big backtrack from the models this morning giving us a toppler at best with no snow on offer. There really is to much energy in the vortex around the greenland area combined with the ever present Azores high. Result we remain in Limbo to the SSW takes effect and hope it changes our fortune. Or straw clutch is its just one run and they could flip bk. But as seems to be the case if there is even the slightest hurdle to getting a ridge into Greenland or hieghts into Scandi we always seem to be on the wrong side in the luck department. The hunt goes on although we do have a Nice frost this morning here.

[tinybill]

i know its fantasy  world  but it looks nice!

[Mucka]

Twist in the tale?

Funny thing is the ensembles are mostly better than the Op so not time to write anything off yet.

A good example is the control run V the Op

When the control differs so much from the Op it is time to take a step back and ponder life and its complexities.

The divergence between the Op and the control illustrated on the 850 short ensemble graph

Edited January 4, 2019 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

This from day 9 just goes to prove the struggle with the charts at the minute. 

Every option on the table from the GEFS that’s for sure but a gradual cool down of 850s still looking good into FI

Edited January 4, 2019 by Ali1977

[The Eagle]

23 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Twist in the tale?

Funny thing is the ensembles are mostly better than the Op so not time to write anything off yet.

A good example is the control run V the Op

When the control differs so much from the Op it is time to take a step back and ponder life and its complexities.

 

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by The Eagle

[The Beast From The East]

7 hours ago, Bartlett High said:

BBC forecast completely uninspiring... I just don't get it . Someone explain please. They say nothing significantly cold in the foreseeable!

So this is the reason they did the forecast that they did then.. they were only saying what they were seeing for next week.. 

Such a shame that this always happens to us all with great model outputs yesterday evening and overnight then the following morning we get all the downgrades..... we deserve some luck..

Hopefully things will turn back around later for us coldies.. ☺

[Ali1977]

-4/-5 mean into FI from the GEFS, I think the graph will look pretty good.

Edited January 4, 2019 by Ali1977

[snowfish1]

How many times has this happened I lose count. Its ridiculous really. What does it take for us to strike gold. Or are the models in a state of flux from the ssw still. Someonw mentioned they would upgrade and downgrade in equal measure before the harvest can be reaped. Harvest lol  

[KTtom]

7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yesssssssss!!

Weeks 3 and 4 look absolutely amazing..

My only issue is that ec46 week 3 and 4 have looked amazing since the end of November, so, I'm struggling to maintain any confidence in it.

On the plus side, the greenie high does look the most favoured if we do finally get a HLB with constant agreement of a deep trough over Scandinavia...wonder if a trip to sweeden might be on the cards.? 

Edited January 4, 2019 by KTtom

[Ali1977]

ECM and GFS at 144, more energy into Greeny on the ECM (top)which may help with a PM flow later on as per the 18z yesterday.

Edited January 4, 2019 by Ali1977

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Oh forgot, gfs makes it a treble, of crud that is, just a toppler now, what a turnaround in 12 hours. 

 

Can I point out that a few runs ago that GFS was showing little at all for next week?

This was Wednesday's GFS 0z ensembles

Today's 

Can't see the wood through the trees.....

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by Weather-history

[Ali1977]

I’d take the ECM at 216, just need another push North with the WAA towards Greenland and we’d have a great Northerly.

[SMU]

Highlighted last night was the bias to remove that high pressure to quick...

Look at the ECM overnight...

Edited January 4, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Seasonality]

Not so bad this day 9 ECM output. Vortex looking smashed up, cold descending from the north with lower heights over the med. 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Not so bad this day 9 ECM output. Vortex looking smashed up, cold descending from the north with lower heights over the med. 

I’m just wondering if we do head v cold mid Jan onward would this be the way we get there!! Looks viable enough. Just need that PV to quieten down over West Greenland to allow the height build up. Either way it looks like low pressure into the MED, that’s always welcome. Maybe some snow finally got the lower alps too which they need (unlike Austria )

Edited January 4, 2019 by Ali1977

[Seasonality]

[NO LONGER POSTING]

There are only 3 days in the ECM with above 0c uppers that's today tomorrow and Sunday with the change to cold again coming Monday.. From then to the end of the run uppers are below 0c with some very cold uppers in the mix... 

The states are unusually warm this time of year I have just read on Facebook which is even better news.. 

 

Edited January 4, 2019 by Surrey

[Weathizard]

The ECM day 9/10 looks alright but it’s a drab cold rain set up for most, this run is the first run I’ve seen that projects well with the MO view of how we will progress in the midterm which is oddly unsettling.

Little bit disappointed with the operational outputs overnight

[Winterfun]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The ECM day 9/10 looks alright but it’s a drab cold rain set up for most, this run is the first run I’ve seen that projects well with the MO view of how we will progress in the midterm which is oddly unsettling.

Little bit disappointed with the operational outputs overnight

We will see upgrades on tonight’s runs trust me bigger picture 

[mb018538]

Not so sure about that. It's looking increasingly likely that as the high breaks down we will have to endure a period of unsettled weather - meaning any potential cold could be now pushed back into week 3 (at least) in January. If last year was the quick response and jackpot, then this year will be the sit and wait  game, if it happens at all. Patience required!

[shotski]

12 hours ago, shotski said:

This is interesting from JMA, which I believe has very good verification stats. Week 2 shows a slight return to Zonal followed by this very strong anomaly for weeks 3-4. This could get very messy at the end of the month ?

Think I’ll be sticking with the JMA long range model over Icon for the moment. Discribed as cat litter last night but looks in line with met office & EC monthly forecasts.