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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM is pretty grim as well. Starting to understand why the meto have delayed any possible cold spell again ....

3486A8C4-917F-46A2-8C93-89B4F4D8318E.png

Don’t agree with the words “Any posssible cold spell” also does the MO use GEM model, just asking?

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

So much for the models coming on board - if anything, they have trended away from cold. As somebody on the radio said earlier, a SSW merely increases the chance of blocking. Doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed, and even then it might not benefit the U.K. I’d still give the chance of anything cold and sustained this month at no more than 20%.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The GEFS have been consistent with a drop in 850s over the last few days, just hoping that continues and we get some luck to flip a certain update on its head!! All to play for, be nice to atlesst get a few topplers mid month as per the latest GFS

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Everyone knows I like to moan about the outputs but in the more reliable timeframe both the GFS and UKMO have improved .

The shortwave energy in the Atlantic though is turning into a real problem for the models , no agreement on that.

I know I’ve been droning on about phasing for days but it’s key this doesn’t happen , and we want a weak shortwave . The UKMO gets there but if it’s shortwave was weaker it’s day 6 would have been better .

We need as much distance between the shortwave and upstream deep low as possible to increase the margin of error.

Me too Nick!!

I agree with all your post- UKMO is an improvement on the 00z run for sure..

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Don’t agree with the words “Any posssible cold spell” also does the MO use GEM model, just asking?

What don’t you agree with? No one (meto included) is guaranteeing a cold spell this month. Meto professionals over the years have said that they will use nearly all main stream models (GEM) included when considering a long range forecast 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d still give the chance of anything cold and sustained this month at no more than 20%.

Think only 20% is a bit low. I’d say more like 80% ...if you are offering odds of 5-1 I’m sure most members will have a bet with you ?....

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well the, the 12Z ends on an optimistic note:

image.thumb.png.b8aca93edce2fcedf7ab20c0fab92c7e.png

Now let's see the Para raise the ante further...?

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

2 major things for me which give major doubt 

*exceptionally mild December: Usually going back through the CET archive, January’s and February’s following a very mild December rarely deliver.

*Westerly Qbo: January’s with a  westerly qbo tend to be mild, or (not snowy). 

However, despite this, there is still some scope for optimism... we haven’t seen the affects of the recent ssw yet come into the models... and we have very low flux.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Everyone knows I like to moan about the outputs but in the more reliable timeframe both the GFS and UKMO have improved .

The shortwave energy in the Atlantic though is turning into a real problem for the models , no agreement on that.

I know I’ve been droning on about phasing for days but it’s key this doesn’t happen , and we want a weak shortwave . The UKMO gets there but if it’s shortwave was weaker it’s day 6 would have been better .

We need as much distance between the shortwave and upstream deep low as possible to increase the margin of error.

Good points as ever.the only thing I would point to is come tomorrow morning it will be totally different again imo.do you think the volatility is a good thing even at short range .tia

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Deleted

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Think only 20% is a bit low. I’d say more like 80% ...if you are offering odds of 5-1 I’m sure most members will have a bet with you ?....

When it’s at T96 might be tempted. But 80% now with model disagreement? I admire your optimism!

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

The GEFS are all over the shop even at T96:

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=96

No need to guess where the uncertainty is:

gensnh-22-1-96.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
8 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Gah!! The frustration continues..... Meto forecast has also pushed this back again to now saying milder/wetter mid month and the cold spell being the end of the month now..... but I'm trying to remain hopefully of SOMETHING to come our way before the end of winter and we've still plenty of time so let's hope! We also know how quickly the models can suddenly turn and cold weather suddenly pop up from nowhere - and that's without SSW's and other background signals!

Cold weather has "popped up" today. Highest temp today was 4c (my locality). Cold for next few days with temps below freezing over next few nights.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

What don’t you agree with? No one (meto included) is guaranteeing a cold spell this month. Meto professionals over the years have said that they will use nearly all main stream models (GEM) included when considering a long range forecast 

The word “Any” but how long do you see as in a timeline is a cold spell.

Now you’ve also mentioned no one is gaaranteeing a cold spell, but they aren’t gaaranteeing it won’t happen either.

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

A great control by 144 following the UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
8 minutes ago, swfc said:

Good points as ever.the only thing I would point to is come tomorrow morning it will be totally different again imo.do you think the volatility is a good thing even at short range .tia

Good and bad !

The modelling of the shortwave energy in the Atlantic worries me because the outputs have been very jumpy there, you’ll note that they initially phased that with the upstream troughing . The ECM pulled out one run which didn’t which delivered that easterly , then it phased and now it’s back to not phasing .

The volatility overall though I see as a good thing because it suggests a lot going on in the background . We could get lucky and the cards could fall kindly when the models eventually settle down . 

The GFS is not the preferred solution upstream as it’s too flat given NCEP discussions . We need that as amplified as possible to help elongate the low just sw of Greenland at day 6 , that sharper low would help drive any ridge further north ahead of it .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Cold weather has "popped up" today. Highest temp today was 4c (my locality). Cold for next few days with temps below freezing over next few nights.

The thread should really be called 'Hunt for snow!' 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
2 minutes ago, stratty said:

The thread should really be called 'Hunt for snow!' 

Or hunt for SSW...Sudden Siberian Winter

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

When it’s at T96 might be tempted. But 80% now with model disagreement? I admire your optimism!

80% for a cold spell with a bit of snow at some point later this month. I’m not saying 2 weeks of endless snow or very cold. Regardless of the SSW or other background signals there is always a fairly high chance of a cold spell or snap at some point in Jan?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

 

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

The problem is clear here.

To much blind faith in the GFS 'mobility' forecast.

This is the SAME GFS ( excl FV3 ) thats been wrong for the last 10 days over estimating the 'eastward' projection.

Lets go a whole day & not post the GFS.

I couldn't agree more. Bin the old (current) goofus and switch to the FV3, it'll be the op soon enough. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Let's face facts GFS hasn't a Scooby on how to deal with a developing Artic High 

06z had it pushed off to Canada 

12z has it trying to flirt with forming Greenland heights gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.52947f2264b9abc915cec8b9ce6c7c6a.png

tempresult_syr6.gif

Edited by winterof79
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