Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex
    1 hour ago, MP-R said:

    If it's any consolation, I started driving lessons in December 2009... yeah.

    I did the direct access motorcycle course in December 2010. Failed my first test, having arrived at the test centre to be told that it would likely be cancelled due to snow on all their routes, only to have it confirmed as going ahead 5 minutes before due to go out. Promptly messed up pulling away from stationary on-road parking less than 5 minutes into the test.

     

    Anyway, on a more on-topic note: I've been AWOL over the summer (being a snow junky as an ex-pat Aussie) and it appears I've got a lot of catching up to do. Anyone able to point me at a thread or two (or just send me a PM if easier!) that discusses the new models (Para & FV3 in particular, any others?) I've been seeing mentioned, and what their advantages / disadvantages might be? In particular if any of them are expected to be more accurate during the winter months and/or more accurate for our wonderfully difficult to predict island.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.4k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and/or snow in Winter and Thunderstorms any time of the year.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103m asl
    1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

    MASSIVE upgrade on GEFS ?

    More members showing increased chances of snow. 

    gfs-manchester-gb-53n-2w.jpeg

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

     A question for you folks when does the GFSP becomes operational?  and for all these exciting outputs I will keep my feet firmly on the ground until the Met office comes on board their  6 30 day outlook from yesterday was rather sobering 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

     A question for you folks when does the GFSP becomes operational?  and for all these exciting outputs I will keep my feet firmly on the ground until the Met office comes on board their  6 30 day outlook from yesterday was rather sobering 

    Sometime between now and March

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    Live situation across Europe at the moment. Nice chill setting in I'd say.

    temp_eur2.png

    pointrosee_eur2.png

    windchill_eur2.png

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    29 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    According to the latest MJO forecasts by the GEFS and GFS the signal accelerates into phase 7.

    .

    The ECMWF MJO forecast has updated I think after yesterday's erroneous data. Seem to show we're in low amplitude Phase 7 already and speedily move into low amplitude phase 8 tomorrow where it remains for a week before descending into the COD. Given the low amplitude and lack of actual time in phase 7, I don't think we're going to much help from tropical influences and are relying on the strat split downwelling and being favourable.

    image.thumb.png.c8c952a33c400af2fbd17286dd622e14.png

    Edited by mountain shadow
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    The ECMWF MJO forecast has updated I think after yesterday's erroneous data. Seem to show we're in low amplitude Phase 7 already and speedily move into low amplitude phase 8 tomorrow where it remains for a week before descending into the COD. Given the low amplitude and lack of actual time in phase 7, I don't think we're going to much help from tropical influences and are relying on the strat split downwelling and being favourable.

    image.thumb.png.c8c952a33c400af2fbd17286dd622e14.png

    The latest gefs bc run is much less amplified than recent output and certainly has moved towards the recent ec output - a coming together of sorts but closer to ec amplitude..... doesn’t bode well considering the high amp 7 was good for us 

    be interesting to see how/if  the gefs week 2 anomoly changes now ....

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    The latest gefs bc run is much less amplified than recent output and certainly has moved towards the recent ec output - a coming together of sorts but closer to ec amplitude..... doesn’t bode well considering the high amp 7 was good for us 

    be interesting to see how/if  the gefs week 2 anomoly changes now ....

    sounds like a major setback blue ..

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    sounds like a major setback blue ..

    The MJO signal could be wrong of course but even if it's right, it just means we don't have much tropical influence to aid in developing a cold spell and are reliant on polar influences from the strat split. And whilst the MJO is in phase 7 or 8 it at least is not in an unfavourable MJO phase.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Worth bearing in mind also that we are heading into a period of solar grand minimums. i was reading that solar radiation has actually gone down by 0.1%, not a lot but could have an effect on our climate, I guess it dispels the claims that solar radiation is constant.

    il-sole-si-sta-raffreddando-influenze-meteo-climatiche-55253_1_2.jpg

    Edited by snowray
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Amazing how quick this forum changes from cold nailed on then it’s  massive downgrade,huge setback,not looking so good now etc.People who read the forum but have no knowledge of the weather must be totally confused by all this.

    I have some knowledge of the weather and I’m still confused lol 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The latest gefs bc run is much less amplified than recent output and certainly has moved towards the recent ec output - a coming together of sorts but closer to ec amplitude..... doesn’t bode well considering the high amp 7 was good for us 

    be interesting to see how/if  the gefs week 2 anomoly changes now ....

    Well EC took us into the COD and then back again to phase 4 and 5, so the EC has improved greatly (above is yesterday's output btw, not today's)

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

    Well EC took us into the COD and then back again to phase 4 and 5, so the EC has improved greatly (above is yesterday's output btw, not today's)

    Must admit im getting confused by the MJO at the moment Artur..

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

    Amazing how quick this forum changes from cold nailed on then it’s  massive downgrade,huge setback,not looking so good now etc.People who read the forum but have no knowledge of the weather must be totally confused by all this.

    As a newbie with no understanding of the weather, this forum reminds me of a movie plot. Lots of ups and downs, happiness, sadness, sheer horror, and mystery... it's emotional! I have aged irreparably trying to follow the storyline, and I still have no idea if we are in a good or bad place compared to the last few days. But its a pleasure to ride this crazy train with you all and thanks for your informed writing. cheers!

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    Must admit im getting confused by the MJO at the moment Artur..

    I think most of us don't know whether we are coming or going with it thanks to its swings and the difference from GFS and ECM.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom

    Not worth bothering worrying over model forecasts of the MJO.

    Not until this SSW is done and finished, I am taking everything with a lorry-full of salt! :oldp:

    ~mpkio2~

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, karyo said:

    I think most of us don't know whether we are coming or going with it thanks to its swings and the difference from GFS and ECM.

    Absolutely K ..

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    It’s actually hilarious at times ?I’m not sure how people manage with more serious life issues if a weather pattern brings them up and down so quickly! ?

    Don't get me wrong I want cold weather as much as anyone on this thread, but taking each model output as godpel is actual Madness and will send one crazy ?

    Looking forward to the 12z, this is a very interesting period of model watching! Also the EC monthly updates this evening, could be quite telling as things have progressed somewhat since Monday up top. 

    I think that's the same with any hobby though, particularly sport. We all get angry when our favourite football team loses, but it means absolutely nothing to us in the grand scheme of things. A passion fuels passion at the end of the day. 

    Lets hope for a stonking 12z otherwise I will throw a wobbly. ?

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
    4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    It’s actually hilarious at times ? I’m not sure how people manage with more serious life issues if a weather pattern brings them up and down so quickly! ?

    Don't get me wrong I want cold weather as much as anyone on this thread, but taking each model output as godpel is actual Madness and will send one crazy ?

    Looking forward to the 12z, this is a very interesting period of model watching! Also the EC monthly updates this evening, could be quite telling as things have progressed somewhat since Monday up top. 

    The forum should just be called Swings & Roundabouts.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    All I want to see is consistency in back to back runs - up to 10 days anyway. So if the 12z follows the 6z we’ll have a happy forum I imagine. 

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...