The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Audaxian 39]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

If it's any consolation, I started driving lessons in December 2009... yeah.

I did the direct access motorcycle course in December 2010. Failed my first test, having arrived at the test centre to be told that it would likely be cancelled due to snow on all their routes, only to have it confirmed as going ahead 5 minutes before due to go out. Promptly messed up pulling away from stationary on-road parking less than 5 minutes into the test.

 

Anyway, on a more on-topic note: I've been AWOL over the summer (being a snow junky as an ex-pat Aussie) and it appears I've got a lot of catching up to do. Anyone able to point me at a thread or two (or just send me a PM if easier!) that discusses the new models (Para & FV3 in particular, any others?) I've been seeing mentioned, and what their advantages / disadvantages might be? In particular if any of them are expected to be more accurate during the winter months and/or more accurate for our wonderfully difficult to predict island.

[Frost HoIIow 2,375]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

MASSIVE upgrade on GEFS ?

More members showing increased chances of snow. 

[syed2878 778]

 A question for you folks when does the GFSP becomes operational?  and for all these exciting outputs I will keep my feet firmly on the ground until the Met office comes on board their  6 30 day outlook from yesterday was rather sobering 

[Man Without Beard 25,232]

ECM ensembles D15 - Big, big, big trend towards a strong Arctic High (very strong at sea level, also to a good degree at upper levels). That's got to help the chances of a split in the TPV later in the month. 

[karlos1983 21,819]

3 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 A question for you folks when does the GFSP becomes operational?  and for all these exciting outputs I will keep my feet firmly on the ground until the Met office comes on board their  6 30 day outlook from yesterday was rather sobering 

Sometime between now and March

[Seasonality 5,014]

Live situation across Europe at the moment. Nice chill setting in I'd say.

[nick sussex 64,034]

According to the latest MJO forecasts by the GEFS and GFS the signal accelerates into phase 7.

This is a good phase for cold into Western Europe . The question as to what happens afterwards still uncertain .

Preferably we’d want to hang around in phase 7. They forecast a skimming of 8 and then back into phase 7 .

The speeding up of the signal could well be correlated with the improvements in the models . Of course we have the SSW aswell.

As you head through phase 6 towards the 7 the normal response is for more amplification into the pattern . You often see a high displacement , so the limpet high gets pushed nw .

In terms of the outputs we are moving towards being more certain of some colder conditions but not  there yet   . However the hardest thing often in the UK with the projected evolutions is to get the jet cut back .

So the jet travels ne then loops back sw wards into the Low Countries . It’s this which brings the easterly into play .

The key to keeping the cold is for trough disruption upstream this sends energy se and continues to feed low pressure over northern Italy .

The ICON 00 hrs is a good example of what to look for in the later output . Let’s say things go well. Then if the cold is to be extended into a spell you can keep the cold as the easterly moves into a more northerly . The high gets pulled west and nw and troughing pushes south over Scandi .

This is a way off.  Firstly we need the upstream pattern to play ball , hurdle 1 ,  good separation of shortwave and upstream trough , the shortwave heading se towards the southern North Sea ridge building n ne in between the two .

Hurdle 2 is the jet cut back.

Hurdle 3 upstream trough disruption , like the ICON 00 hrs .

Hurdle 4 retrogression of the high whilst maintaining low pressure in Northern Italy .

 

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by nick sussex

[mpkio2 832]

Hello All Once Again!!!!

Been awhile since I posted here, huh? Hope you all had a wonderful festive period and New Years!

Chilly out there today, as our UK High sits right over us making it colder, and widespread frosts tonight countrywide....

 

So that's it gang! The "Hunt" for cold is over! It's been found and its right at our doorstep!

OK, all things serious, a lot has been going on over the past few days, with the models constantly at war with each other, bickering and disagreeing. But there's a lot going on at the moment; what with our current SSW causing havoc in our atmosphere and models NWP.....

Going from this currently (04/01/19):

To this (Ongoing first warming or second warming? ) (06/01/19):

As many have said, shows a three daughter vortices split - One over Europe, America and N.Pacific, which should allud to, down the line, to a -AO, cold spilling into the mid lats - but nat guaranteed!!!

 But even that's not nailed on yet (Though looking likely with current model runs from the big three - ECM, GFS(P), and GLOSEA5,) - which is what is causing all this uncertainty with the modelling and why so many runs are flipping like fish on land! The SSW (Which was forecast well out over 2 weeks ago,) is here, with winds downwelling into the atmosphere causing them to veer E instead of the usual W. So, we all know it's occurring, but the speed at which it is occurring is what everyone is unknown about, whether we are likely to see a QTR or not and whether it will give the UK a cold spell.

But it can all be wrong for all we know! It doesn't guarantee cold but can increase the chances, after all.

With the MJO signal with each respective model being forecast at different amplitudes, speed in which they are progressing through each phase(7-8-1) ,a -ve EAMT GWO Phase 5 and high AAM to add into the mixture, its a heck of a lot to account for. 

 

(The above charts are from Matt Hugo (Twitter @matthugo81),)

With that said, I do like to see if I can find agreement between the models, and thus far on the 0s suite, there is some agreement (I know - shock horror! ?

0z UKMO (03/01) t144:

0z GFS (03/01) t144:

0z GFS(P) (03/01) t144:

0z ECM (03/01) t144:

0z ICON (03/01) t144:

So, yes in the broad-pattern, there is some agreement on the overall pattern - a mid-lat high seems to be likely for a weeks time. What isn't agreed on is the position and strength of said high, whether is can retrogress towards Scandy or Greenie; whether we'll have a cool northerly/easterly or a cold northerly/easterly. All down to other atmospheric players of course and, because of that, these charts, for all we know, could be completely and utterly wrong.

But there is a CONSENSUS!!! Mid-lat high by 11th Jan, and with a favourable/amplified MJO Phase 7-8-1, GWO Phase 5, high AAM and a -ve EAMT, we might be in business, even if the full effects of the SSW don't down well all too well for us. Here to hoping of course!

It's why so many posters aren't bothering to post; because the runs have been so volatile and flip-flopping because of the SSW confusing the models. It can take up to 2 weeks to see the true effects of an SSW ( a la Jan 2013 SSW and responsive March 2013 cold spell), so, as many have already said....

Please don't take the models too seriously!!

Of course, post, comment, the whole-shebang! But just try not to get too hung up on individual runs. We all want it to be cold and snowy (That's why we're all here!!!), so lets all just enjoy the ride, yeah?

Here's hoping for more upgrades and a cold, snowy winter!

Until next time, gang!

~mpkio2~

Edited January 3, 2019 by mpkio2

[mountain shadow 9,826]

29 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

According to the latest MJO forecasts by the GEFS and GFS the signal accelerates into phase 7.

.

The ECMWF MJO forecast has updated I think after yesterday's erroneous data. Seem to show we're in low amplitude Phase 7 already and speedily move into low amplitude phase 8 tomorrow where it remains for a week before descending into the COD. Given the low amplitude and lack of actual time in phase 7, I don't think we're going to much help from tropical influences and are relying on the strat split downwelling and being favourable.

Edited January 3, 2019 by mountain shadow

[bluearmy 44,594]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The ECMWF MJO forecast has updated I think after yesterday's erroneous data. Seem to show we're in low amplitude Phase 7 already and speedily move into low amplitude phase 8 tomorrow where it remains for a week before descending into the COD. Given the low amplitude and lack of actual time in phase 7, I don't think we're going to much help from tropical influences and are relying on the strat split downwelling and being favourable.

The latest gefs bc run is much less amplified than recent output and certainly has moved towards the recent ec output - a coming together of sorts but closer to ec amplitude..... doesn’t bode well considering the high amp 7 was good for us 

be interesting to see how/if  the gefs week 2 anomoly changes now ....

[northwestsnow 25,394]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The latest gefs bc run is much less amplified than recent output and certainly has moved towards the recent ec output - a coming together of sorts but closer to ec amplitude..... doesn’t bode well considering the high amp 7 was good for us 

be interesting to see how/if  the gefs week 2 anomoly changes now ....

sounds like a major setback blue ..

[mountain shadow 9,826]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

sounds like a major setback blue ..

The MJO signal could be wrong of course but even if it's right, it just means we don't have much tropical influence to aid in developing a cold spell and are reliant on polar influences from the strat split. And whilst the MJO is in phase 7 or 8 it at least is not in an unfavourable MJO phase.

[snowray 6,042]

Worth bearing in mind also that we are heading into a period of solar grand minimums. i was reading that solar radiation has actually gone down by 0.1%, not a lot but could have an effect on our climate, I guess it dispels the claims that solar radiation is constant.

Edited January 3, 2019 by snowray

[SLEETY 5,612]

Amazing how quick this forum changes from cold nailed on then it’s  massive downgrade,huge setback,not looking so good now ,then back to cold nailed again etc.People who read the forum but have no knowledge of the weather must be totally confused by all this.

Edited January 3, 2019 by SLEETY

[Coopsy 2,685]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Amazing how quick this forum changes from cold nailed on then it’s  massive downgrade,huge setback,not looking so good now etc.People who read the forum but have no knowledge of the weather must be totally confused by all this.

I have some knowledge of the weather and I’m still confused lol 

[ArHu3 1,016]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The latest gefs bc run is much less amplified than recent output and certainly has moved towards the recent ec output - a coming together of sorts but closer to ec amplitude..... doesn’t bode well considering the high amp 7 was good for us 

be interesting to see how/if  the gefs week 2 anomoly changes now ....

Well EC took us into the COD and then back again to phase 4 and 5, so the EC has improved greatly (above is yesterday's output btw, not today's)

[northwestsnow 25,394]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Well EC took us into the COD and then back again to phase 4 and 5, so the EC has improved greatly (above is yesterday's output btw, not today's)

Must admit im getting confused by the MJO at the moment Artur..

[Guest]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Amazing how quick this forum changes from cold nailed on then it’s  massive downgrade,huge setback,not looking so good now etc.People who read the forum but have no knowledge of the weather must be totally confused by all this.

As a newbie with no understanding of the weather, this forum reminds me of a movie plot. Lots of ups and downs, happiness, sadness, sheer horror, and mystery... it's emotional! I have aged irreparably trying to follow the storyline, and I still have no idea if we are in a good or bad place compared to the last few days. But its a pleasure to ride this crazy train with you all and thanks for your informed writing. cheers!

 

[karyo 4,831]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Must admit im getting confused by the MJO at the moment Artur..

I think most of us don't know whether we are coming or going with it thanks to its swings and the difference from GFS and ECM.

[mpkio2 832]

Not worth bothering worrying over model forecasts of the MJO.

Not until this SSW is done and finished, I am taking everything with a lorry-full of salt!

~mpkio2~

[northwestsnow 25,394]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

I think most of us don't know whether we are coming or going with it thanks to its swings and the difference from GFS and ECM.

Absolutely K ..

[karlos1983 21,819]

16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Amazing how quick this forum changes from cold nailed on then it’s  massive downgrade,huge setback,not looking so good now ,then back to cold nailed again etc.People who read the forum but have no knowledge of the weather must be totally confused by all this.

It’s actually hilarious at times ? I’m not sure how people manage with more serious life issues if a weather pattern brings them up and down so quickly! ?

Don't get me wrong I want cold weather as much as anyone on this thread, but taking each model output as godpel is actual Madness and will send one crazy ?

Looking forward to the 12z, this is a very interesting period of model watching! Also the EC monthly updates this evening, could be quite telling as things have progressed somewhat since Monday up top. 

EDIT: @PerfectStorm good point well made ? I can’t really argue with that!

Edited January 3, 2019 by karlos1983

[Eskimo 5,795]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

It’s actually hilarious at times ?I’m not sure how people manage with more serious life issues if a weather pattern brings them up and down so quickly! ?

Don't get me wrong I want cold weather as much as anyone on this thread, but taking each model output as godpel is actual Madness and will send one crazy ?

Looking forward to the 12z, this is a very interesting period of model watching! Also the EC monthly updates this evening, could be quite telling as things have progressed somewhat since Monday up top. 

I think that's the same with any hobby though, particularly sport. We all get angry when our favourite football team loses, but it means absolutely nothing to us in the grand scheme of things. A passion fuels passion at the end of the day. 

Lets hope for a stonking 12z otherwise I will throw a wobbly. ?

[Day 10 7,168]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

It’s actually hilarious at times ? I’m not sure how people manage with more serious life issues if a weather pattern brings them up and down so quickly! ?

Don't get me wrong I want cold weather as much as anyone on this thread, but taking each model output as godpel is actual Madness and will send one crazy ?

Looking forward to the 12z, this is a very interesting period of model watching! Also the EC monthly updates this evening, could be quite telling as things have progressed somewhat since Monday up top. 

The forum should just be called Swings & Roundabouts.

[Ali1977 9,809]

All I want to see is consistency in back to back runs - up to 10 days anyway. So if the 12z follows the 6z we’ll have a happy forum I imagine.