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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    image.thumb.png.004fe9d311bf7e874edb0d5dc5104c1d.png

    para goes from this ..

    to this next slide, surely faulty?

    image.thumb.png.6d3365da4f343b41e7f7a1f63206eb13.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    13 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

    As long as you have winter tyres you should be fine, it would be easier really as everyone either stays at home or is super cautious 

    Might be getting a bit ahead of ourselves talking about winter tyres for next week.  no model shows widespread / disruptive snow next week ? GFSp is a downgrade on previous few runs 

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, Weather-history said:

    Is it my imagination or is there suddenly in the ensembles between 8th and 13th January?

    Manchester 06z ensembles

    GFSENS06_53_-2_205.png

    MASSIVE upgrade on GEFS ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    image.thumb.png.004fe9d311bf7e874edb0d5dc5104c1d.png

    para goes from this ..

    to this next slide, surely faulty?

    image.thumb.png.6d3365da4f343b41e7f7a1f63206eb13.png

    The first image is Wednesday's 6z.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

    The first image is Wednesday's 6z.

    Damn i didnt see that , thanks Yarmy, and apologies ?

    still looks a bitter northerly  tho.

    image.thumb.png.e00ced85089413af213d63ec15db15d6.png

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Overall the parallel is a downgrade compared to the 0z as it flattens the high quickly.

    It will be interesting to see if the Met Office update is wintrier for next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, karyo said:

    Overall the parallel is a downgrade compared to the 0z as it flattens the high quickly.

    It will be interesting to see if the Met Office update is wintrier for next week.

    shows a stonking northerly though so at least some proper cold uppers if only for 48 hours ?

    image.thumb.png.2ee8c2a950ca21a64cca8e43d2590e31.png

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    shows a stonking northerly though so at least some proper cold uppers if only for 48 hours ?

    image.thumb.png.2ee8c2a950ca21a64cca8e43d2590e31.png

    Any form of cold before late January would be a bonus imo.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

    6z and gefs 6z suite just wow. The pendulum is swinging isnt it ? If things are to go in are favour we could be already see easterly winds swinging in a matter of a week according the gefs suites. Whats interesting is the sudden turn arounds on things in short term. Reminds me of last winter. There is some bonkers reversal patterns showing in the 6z. Not many go full blown blocked, a few bring the cold soon and some later. But the 6z definetly show we are in with a chance of a quite severe cold spell along wth rest of europe. Here are some of the ensembles and just show possible lasting impacts of global weather patterns. 

    GFSP15EU06_384_1.png

    GFSP13EU06_330_1.png

    GFSP10EU06_384_1.png

    GFSP09EU06_360_1.png

    GFSP13EU06_378_1.png

    GFSP13EU06_378_1.png

    GFSP13EU06_372_1.png

    GFSP10EU06_384_2.png

    GFSP18EU06_384_1.png

    GFSP16EU06_198_1.png

    GFSP17EU06_330_1.png

    GFSP09EU06_384_1.png

    GFSP11EU06_294_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    06z ensembles are certainly much better and something to be excited about but it should also be noted the colder mean is caused by a temporary sharpening of the pattern and glancing Northerly and brief Easterly from the toppler with the majority of ensemble members.

    That said it also puts us in a much better position to see some HLB forming around mid month.

    It would be great if this is finally the cold signal we have been looking for but we have seen enough false dawns to be cautious until we see cross model support.

    ECM ensembles were mixed bag so clearly the potential is there but it could still go either way.

    Yes - stonker.

    image.thumb.png.d1a64601b9bc0a58392e6aa654917bbb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

    Anyone looked at p5 on the ensembles, there may have been better ones, but the extremity is striking look at the lobe to the northeast and the potential. Not seen anything that cold, so close to are shores for a while:

     

    GFSP05EU06_384_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    32 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Might be getting a bit ahead of ourselves talking about winter tyres for next week.  no model shows widespread / disruptive snow next week ? GFSp is a downgrade on previous few runs 

    winter tyres aren't just effective for snow, they perform better at everything <7C, up to me I'd legislate to have the whole country on all weather tyres 365 days/year.

    Models do suggest that a good proportion of the next week or two or even longer (*crosses fingers!) will be at or below 7C, therefore winter tyres would be a sensible choice irrespective of presence of snow.

    Edited by JeffC
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    Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
    17 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    Nerve wracking we scrape over the first hurdle at T144 hrs on the ECM.

    Please can we have a bit more distance between shortwave and upstream low at T120hrs! 

    Once again a school day in here, although I hate it when the talk of shortwaves enters the forum. Again Nick your magic crayons have showed perfectly what we needed to look for, and voila!

    Things definitely looking up and to be remembered a lot of it thanks to a UK high, which seems to get more flak than they deserve as rarely do they hang around in the same position beyond 4/5 days (summer 18 being a rarity). But often in winter when there is no raging Atlantic thay seem to deliver. Very much dejavu from Feb 18 in the charts.

    Personally, I think its always good to have high pressure floating around rather than a reset of a popped ballon.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    It seems the exact position/orientation of next week's HP is pivotal to how the rest of the run goes. Could be much much worse.

    image.thumb.png.cef20dc62685538898f014cced6bb4b9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    It seems the exact position/orientation of next week's HP is pivotal to how the rest of the run goes. Could be much much worse.

    image.thumb.png.cef20dc62685538898f014cced6bb4b9.png

    Yeah will take a blast of cold zonal,,better than chasing the non-event easterly ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    Don't forget to ignore the gfs run folks!..... it's a garbage model and shouldn't be peed on if it was on fire........allegedly...... lol...... in all seriousness the watch word IMHO is never disregard any model output regardless of the source.....welcome changes in the mid term on the gfs, long may they continue for us cold and snow lovers ?

    Edited by beerandkebab
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    Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Thanks. Only just catching up with the GFS 06 hrs run.

    What a relief to see this trend , also the ICON which is fast becoming ICONIC!

    Oh dear that was the best I could think of ! 

    Oh dear, thought I heard the last xmas cracker jokes last week. But yeah agree the ICON could once again be covered in SSW glory.

    Good call though, calling it ahead of the models once again mate ?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, geordiekev said:

    Oh dear, thought I heard the last xmas cracker jokes last week. But yeah agree the ICON could once again be covered in SSW glory.

    Good call though, calling it ahead of the models once again mate ?

    There are more ! 

    I’m still in festive mood, even more so after the GFS 06 hrs run !  Just a word about the phasing non phasing saga .

    We’re almost there , I’d like just one more run before I can say “ this House is Clean “! A clue the phasing calamity entity  is hidden in a room  somewhere in the house , and the film has a horrible clown . I hate clowns ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

    Don't forget to ignore the gfs run folks!..... it's a garbage model and shouldn't be peed on if it was on fire........allegedly...... lol...... in all seriousness the watch word IMHO is never disregard any model output regardless of the source.....welcome changes in the mid term on the gfs, long may they continue for us cold and snow lovers ?

    Don't laugh...but the ICON has got everything from the SSW to UK Snowmageddon nailded! How far does it go out again?:cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    8 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

    Don't forget to ignore the gfs run folks!..... it's a garbage model and shouldn't be peed on if it was on fire........allegedly...... lol...... in all seriousness the watch word IMHO is never disregard any model output regardless of the source.....welcome changes in the mid term on the gfs, long may they continue for us cold and snow lovers ?

    They won't now AJ

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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