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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    npsh500.png

    How amusing. The longest west-east ridge on record!

    Difficult to meld this with the ECM 00z though. We seem to be arriving at the more entertaining side of model chaos.

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    9 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Yeh in all fairness i expect ukmo to upgrade and all models to show a stronger is east flow with plenty of snow!!

    That’s quite an upgrade on your thoughts of yesterday... ? 

    I’m not going to second guess what the models will show come the 12z, D5 is hard enough at the best of times, to expect consistency at the moment is a big ask imo.

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    Posted
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)
  • Location: Slovenia (Maribor)

    Very impressive GFS06Z chart also for us on the SE side of the Alps with a Balkan/Genoa low pressure system in the middle of next week. On the N-NE side of the Alps they have heavy snowfall in last few days, and here on the other side we get nothing, its sunny with strong NW wind and zero snow.

    GFSOPEU06_162_1.thumb.png.1b7b1e46660efeee40516184d124e66c.png

    GFSOPEU06_204_1.thumb.png.f69a1df5637e59ae6a3de0ce72602cd5.png

    Edited by Redbull165
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    Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny in the summer, cold and snowy in the winter
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
    10 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

    Omg!! Still a week away but it’s saying 24 hours of countrywide snow!!??️ 

    4F0BF0FB-B685-49CB-8780-1DE2902B4F3C.png

    Guess who has a week long intensive driving course next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Could something similar to what happened over Xmas-Boxing Day 1962 happen again?

    image.thumb.png.1d72257e0c1a46e4df6bdedd0ae394f7.png

    Probably not!?image.thumb.png.44350f8c03aa6287805ba8eeacab9b8b.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, TheMoonman said:

    Guess who has a week long intensive driving course next week.

    Even if it did verify, at least then you would have had driving experience in ice and snow before you have to face those conditions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

    Is it such that finally, the NWP outputs are following my advice, not just my hunch either btw, a few other posters have been resolute in not jumping all over every run and have continually looked at things in the round.

     

    Week two cold snowy spell still on target?

     

    Now, we just need the cards to fall in place and the specifics for next week will be clearer by the weekend. Get these D9 and D10 charts to be there at D4 and D5 by then and we're on for a decent chance of snow-filled synoptics.

    Edited by gottolovethisweather
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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    17 minutes ago, Tony Beets said:

    Do we reckon that this would be conducive for convection? Looks close.

    Generally a 13oC difference between SST's and 850's works. At -7oC uppers and current SST on the east coast ranging from 8-11oC then the potential is there

    Edited by CanadianCoops
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    Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
    11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I still think we will see the first attempt at a proper Scandi High fail with the high collapsing over us, however, we may eek some wintryness out of it before it does...

    image.thumb.png.4bf465ad21279a21e7b0545211e49718.png

    I'm more interested in the second wave post Day 10/12. you can see the jet buckling over Alaska.

    Hold on...I thought yesterday I seen loads of posts in here saying the GFS is cannon fodder and a waste of time. ?

    It is the hunt for cold thread however so I like the thinking that if it shows what we want we can just sweep yesterday under the carpet and pretend no-one mentioned a thing...ssssshhhhhhh. ? (Suits me!)

    I’ll take this chart for a purely IMBY perspective - perfect flow for my location even if it is short lived. 

     

    125819F4-9E79-42A5-B36E-0369764AC3E2.png

    Edited by Mr Frost
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    Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny in the summer, cold and snowy in the winter
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Even if it did verify, at least then you would have had driving experience in ice and snow before you have to face those conditions.

    Very true.  Who knows, if I'm stuck in snow-bound traffic for 45 minutes, I can't fail the test ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    Just now, Mr Frost said:

    Hold on...I thought yesterday I seen loads of posts in here saying the GFS is cannon fodder and a waste of time. ?

    It is the hunt for cold thread however so I like the thinking that if it shows what we want we can just sweep yesterday under the carpet and pretend no-one mentioned a thing...ssssshhhhhhh. ?

    I’ll take this chart for a purely IMBY perspective - perfect flow for my location even if it is short lived. 

     

    125819F4-9E79-42A5-B36E-0369764AC3E2.png

    It is, but I think it has got the general long wave pattern correct. The first ridge which may or may not deliver wintryness over the next 5-10 days and then the second wave/ridge in around 14-20 days which I am more hopeful on delivering the goods. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Touch wood, all roads (GFS roads, that is!) seem to be heading for The Big One...Stay tuned!:cold:

    image.thumb.png.1384a147b3e9a429f43b8639b85a5f56.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I still think we will see the first attempt at a proper Scandi High fail with the high collapsing over us, however, we may eek some wintryness out of it before it does...

    image.thumb.png.4bf465ad21279a21e7b0545211e49718.png

    I'm more interested in the second wave post Day 10/12. you can see the jet buckling over Alaska.

    Yes. Whilst welcome, I think anything over the next 10 days is just a little taster for the main event later in the month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    What I like about this particular run, apart from the obvious short term upgrades, is the arctic high drifting nearer to our side. This would/could give more opportunities for any high in our part of the world to link up. Then what a great nh profile we would be looking at.

    2E7F90D1-29C0-4A6C-953D-D2044B6480D4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Didn’t you say last night that you don’t know why people bother commenting on the GFS and we should go a day without posting it ?

    Yes with the obvious disclaimer thats only if it doesnt follow the Euros & it begins to lose the early eastward bias ( see my post above )

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    Yes with the obvious disclaimer thats only if it doesnt follow the Euros & it begins to lose the early eastward bias ( see my post above )

    Yep, this isn’t on its own in the morning upgrades. If GEFS follow the excitement will grow, hopefully not to be blown up by the 12zs

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Lovely upgrade from the ICON and the gfs. They now look better than the ECM!

    Interestingly, both the 0z and 6z gfs look better in terms of the stratosphere as the canadian and siberian vortex are further apart allowing for a proper ridge to develop and later extend towards Scandinavia ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

    Steve (or anyone else)

    Would you think the changes in some of these parts are related to the downwelling from the SSW or more related to the MJO

    Cheers

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    13 minutes ago, TheMoonman said:

    Very true.  Who knows, if I'm stuck in snow-bound traffic for 45 minutes, I can't fail the test ?

    You could kindly ask Santa to borrow his sleigh and reindeer, I wouldn’t fancy the 3 point turn though ?

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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