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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    6z has snow showers across the E/SE @156 and is a HUGE upgrade on the 850s...

     

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Not bad at all from the GFS 6z for next mid-week with -7/-9 uppers from the N/E... Over the GFS-P..

    3941691_viewimage(30).thumb.png.4733f360859ae605397081fb14ef0284.png1504151874_viewimage(29).thumb.png.de231f6c8da440eb0d5c72ab9c4fee9e.png

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    6z brings a taste of WINTER!!:cold:

    MUCH MUCH better and now moves towards EC..

    Maybe an outlook change today by some people ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Probably a good shout not to stop commentary on the gfs?? 

    7BEAC98E-EF3C-4F1C-9FC9-F571443B67EC.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    7 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Surely given the data inputted is 6hrs newer then it is more likely to be correct.

    You may as well say is it more likely to be correct than the 12z 1st January.

    It could well be an outlier in the ensemble but looking at the 00z ensemble quite a few members were hinting at Greenland or Scandinavian blocking already 

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    Seen enough - big upgrades on both Icon and GFS 6z this morning. Hopefully this theme will continue through the day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    What a lovely 06z ICON I though this morning, and now the GFS is just fantastic. I'm quite surprised in a way to see the upgrades although I can see now why there were so many uncertainties yesterday in the ensembles near term, thought something was brewing. Can we get an easterly now from the 06z I wonder?:oldgrin:

    graphe_ens3.gif

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Seen enough - big upgrades on both Icon and GFS 6z this morning. Hopefully this theme will continue through the day.

    Im actually shocked by the monumental upgrades on the 6z runs..

    Steady as she goes... need UKMO to follow this evening ..

    Potentially a huge set of 12zs..

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Im actually shocked by the monumental upgrades on the 6z runs..

    Steady as she goes... need UKMO to follow this evening ..

    Potentially a huge set of 12zs..

    The UKMO has been playing grinch for a couple of weeks now. Always good to have it on side though as it does have a habit of being correct when out on its own. 

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

    The EC chart I posted earlier held the clues about what was to follow today.

    3B2973CF-CAC3-4A21-8CEF-7662D1CC179D.thumb.gif.62cf5c504fe266cd19d662ed4a132d35.gif

    Lovely ridging to help facilitate an Easterly.

    Expecting EC 12Z to be good one.

    Yeh in all fairness i expect ukmo to upgrade and all models to show a stronger is east flow with plenty of snow!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    If the ENS follow the Op, which to be honest they’ve been trying this set up, then game on. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
    14 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

    Not bad at all from the GFS 6z for next mid-week with -7/-9 uppers from the N/E... Over the GFS-P..

    3941691_viewimage(30).thumb.png.4733f360859ae605397081fb14ef0284.png1504151874_viewimage(29).thumb.png.de231f6c8da440eb0d5c72ab9c4fee9e.png

    Do we reckon that this would be conducive for convection? Looks close.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    day 10 GFS -8/-9 widespread across England - very cold by then at the surface !

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    I still think we will see the first attempt at a proper Scandi High fail with the high collapsing over us, however, we may eek some wintryness out of it before it does...

    image.thumb.png.4bf465ad21279a21e7b0545211e49718.png

    I'm more interested in the second wave post Day 10/12. you can see the jet buckling over Alaska.

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
    8 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

    Omg!! Still a week away but it’s saying 24 hours of countrywide snow!!??️ 

    4F0BF0FB-B685-49CB-8780-1DE2902B4F3C.png

    Snow showers for the north and east with snow flurries further inland I’ll take that!

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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