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Will it be cold? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it Snow?
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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

By phil nw.,
in Model Discussion Archive

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shaky

shaky 6,206

Posted
  • Location: leicester
    • Location: leicester
    Posted
    5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

    Yep only goes out to +120 but a notable improvement 

    Absolute beauty and a massive upgrade at 120 hours compared to 00z!!if all the models show this by 12z this place gona be buzzing!!a few frosty nights and days followed by a north easterly/easterly bringing snow!!perfect!!

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    chionomaniac

    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    Nick F

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    Nick F

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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    Seasonality

    Seasonality 5,014

    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
    • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    Posted
    5 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Absolute beauty and a massive upgrade at 120 hours compared to 00z!!if all the models show this by 12z this place gona be buzzing!!a few frosty nights and days followed by a north easterly/easterly bringing snow!!perfect!!

    You might be needing these soon shaky. Asics Fujisetsu. They're what I use for running on icy/snowy forest paths. Perfect grip. 

    asics-t3k0n-9793c.jpg

    icon-0-120.png

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    s4lancia

    s4lancia 10,123

    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
    • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
    Posted
    8 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Absolute beauty and a massive upgrade at 120 hours compared to 00z!!if all the models show this by 12z this place gona be buzzing!!a few frosty nights and days followed by a north easterly/easterly bringing snow!!perfect!!

    Totally agree, would like to have seen that run continue.

    Hopefully the 12Zs carry on from where the 06z left off ?

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    Surrey

    Surrey 7,286

    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
    • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
    Posted

    Watch the 06z be stonker on the GFS and the ECM to back track later . Because.. That's the way lol

    In all fairness expecting GFS to play catch up soon 

     

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    shaky

    shaky 6,206

    Posted
  • Location: leicester
    • Location: leicester
    Posted
    7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    You might be needing these soon shaky. Asics Fujisetsu. They're what I use for running on icy/snowy forest paths. Perfect grip. 

    asics-t3k0n-9793c.jpg

    icon-0-120.png

    I know thats the only downside but..........nothing is stopping me from running?!!charts this morning have given me a boost as well so wana run even more lol!!

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    karlos1983

    karlos1983 21,819

    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
    • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Posted (edited)

    It would be nice to see this theme continue throughout the day, I feel we need some consistency before getting to carried away.. take yesterday for example, all over the place, so I’m going to be cautiously optimistic.. a good start to the day, although The UKMO isn’t great which is a worry.

    Edited by karlos1983
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    SMU

    SMU 80,650

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    Posted

    GFS 78 follows the ICON upstream...

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    northwestsnow

    northwestsnow 25,394

    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Posted
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    GFS 78 follows the ICON upstream...

    And will likely lose the plot soonafter...

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    shaky

    shaky 6,206

    Posted
  • Location: leicester
    • Location: leicester
    Posted
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    GFS 78 follows the ICON upstream...

    Yup was just bout to say upgrades at 72 hours on gfs!!keep em coming!these are big changes so early on!!

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    shaky

    shaky 6,206

    Posted
  • Location: leicester
    • Location: leicester
    Posted
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    And will likely lose the plot soonafter...

    And this also what i was gona say after my initial post about 40 secs ago!!gfs will most probably lose the plot!!

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    SMU

    SMU 80,650

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
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    Posted
    1 minute ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

    -19c in Italy !! It's just not fair

    Dv-iIJFVAAACKyH.jpg large.jpg

    That is up a mountain-!

     

    But if you want to talk about Italy did you know it holds the world record for the most snow in 24 hours - beating canada & America !

    100 inches in 24 hours lake effect snow.

    A71D82F5-AD7B-498C-914B-11232E10DCA1.thumb.png.1e54f1129861fc644d100ece8d5c9c2a.png

     

     

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    karlos1983

    karlos1983 21,819

    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
    • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Posted (edited)

    GFS blows that shortwave into a well defined low which prevents it from dropping SE like the ICON. Might be ok still.

    I’m staying Grounded (boring) for now

    Edited by karlos1983
    Typo
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    sparky1972

    sparky1972 443

    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
    • Location: spalding, sth lincs
    Posted
    27 minutes ago, shaky said:

    I know thats the only downside but..........nothing is stopping me from running?!!charts this morning have given me a boost as well so wana run even more lol!!

    i also did not think i would be half Marathon training in the snow and frost given the model output over the last few weeks, but hey ho, the weather and training stop for nothing. 

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    johnholmes

    johnholmes 31,901

    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    Posted
    4 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Well that is a monumental upgrade of a ridge into greeenland on the 120 hours 06z gfs!!

    Upgrade for cold but is it likely to be more correct than the 00Z?

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    Eskimo

    Eskimo 5,795

    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
    • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    Posted

    Only one way the high pressure can go now? To the NE!

    image.thumb.png.a7f5533519014e76896239a77c757ebe.png

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    mountain shadow

    mountain shadow 9,837

    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    Posted
    Just now, PerfectStorm said:

    Only one way the high pressure can go now? To the NE!

    image.thumb.png.a7f5533519014e76896239a77c757ebe.png

    Or, it could just sink back over us.

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    That ECM

    That ECM 9,020

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
    • Location: Bournemouth
    Posted

    Couple more upgrades like this and.......!!! I’m going to Sunderland on the 12th to watch my team play. Location had something to do with the choice of the away day ?

    2E03E905-0615-4C0C-8E45-CF94C5A22847.png

    5A506FC0-5E60-46F1-B0D3-67703E6940E5.png

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    Radiating Dendrite

    Radiating Dendrite 3,704

    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
    • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    Posted
    1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

    Upgrade for cold but is it likely to be more correct than the 00Z?

    Surely given the data inputted is 6hrs newer then it is more likely to be correct.

    You may as well say is it more likely to be correct than the 12z 1st January.

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    General Cluster

    General Cluster 63,132

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
    • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    Or, it could just sink back over us.

    It wouldn't dare! image.thumb.png.5523cd42d3dd7caaa9c7264acb06ef71.png

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    Eskimo

    Eskimo 5,795

    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
    • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    Posted
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    Or, it could just sink back over us.

    Unlikely on this run as the Low is building/pushing SW towards Iberia. We'll see! 

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    phil nw.
    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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