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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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45 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Close but no cigar on the GFS. UKMO pretty woeful. ICON excellent.

But why is the ukmo woeful. Looks OK for the UK at 144h to me. 

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

Posted Images

No joy from either the ECM or GFS. UKMO doesn't go out far enough but overall not bad agreement between the three. Even in lala land ECM and GFS pretty close. CFS shows some cold in feb though so junk the rest of the models they are all wrong. ?

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4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

No joy from either the ECM or GFS. UKMO doesn't go out far enough but overall not bad agreement between the three. Even in lala land ECM and GFS pretty close. CFS shows some cold in feb though so junk the rest of the models they are all wrong. ?

But on the positive side, this mornings ecm still isn't out. Maybe it'll be on to something. With the strat splitting as we speak the data being input into the models is likely causing wild swings in output. 

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Happy with the overnight runs thus far-

The ever plucky ICON leads the way in excitement , however FV3 looks close at 168-UKMO slightly less amplified but still cold-

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Note again based on the feedback of the GFS performance the 'overprojection East' is now correcting NW in the mean at 144

18z first 00z second

Indicates a VERY good suite.

C3B334E2-0C3B-4956-94D0-75F6A037A3E4.thumb.png.c0b459495228756a1fa5b1bdec16f277.pngAC8BC3C0-9487-46CE-A0E7-57E5759BFCD0.thumb.png.17645a7b744c0ddca3facce33ab30a37.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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22 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The GEFS are really having a good go at setting up an easterly/ NE’LY at day 8, interesting.

 

Day 10s

 

 

 

 

 

 

Much bigger uncertainty (it starts earlier in the run but I was too late to catch it) 

gensnh-22-1-288.png?18

 

gensnh-22-1-300.png?18

 

(edit:images don't work, well you just have to take my word for it) 

Edited by ArHu3
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14 minutes ago, brmbrmcar said:

The FV3 is going for a different sort of Easterly to last run, it looks like.

image.thumb.png.6ddde4e4334341c6bcca08dfa39aeff7.png

Lovely chart that. Vortex spilling all over like runny egg yolk. 

gfs-1-360.png

gfsnh-0-360.png

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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Why no comments on the ECM - it’s a good one ? 144-168-192 below

I can't tell what it is leading to... Seems seasonal but not exceptional to me atm

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

216 good be good

24133CA5-21D5-40AE-9942-EC6664CB43CC.png

Northerly and Greeny block inbound at 216

86A9E484-59A0-45F3-B7AF-6E6449C272C9.png

Depends how those 2 lows pan out around Greenland, and the shot of WAA between them. It’s all for fun really as way out in LA LA Land.

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Depends how those 2 lows pan out around Greenland, and the shot of WAA between them. It’s all for fun really as way out in LA LA Land.

I think this will be close to what occurs. First ridge will be another failed Easterly attempt but better chance with the second wave/ridge in 10-14 days time.

 

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Morning all in the UK. Not sure if this chart from ICON at 180t comes to fruition but all cold lovers would aspire this to be the case. Everything perfect, high orientation right to the North of British Isles, Polar vortex over White Sea, Mid Atlantic trough digging SE and 300mb jet looping well north in almost omega formation and most importantly lower heights established over Europe.  Its just one scenario but looks the best of this mornings models. Maybe ECM to follow with a different colder route<

C

ICOOPNH00_180_1.png

Edited by carinthian
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When viewing gfs i was ready to throw in the towel, however once again ICON and ECM looking pretty good as far as trends go...ECM day 10, sub -10 uppers primed to flood south behind the trough passing thru. Core of vortex to the north east slowly edging south and an Atlantic ridge, with a tiny tweak westwards would be perfect..

 

ECMOPEU00_240_1-6.png

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If you ask me it’s slowly gathering momentum for a good cold spell, there seems to be more and more good charts appearing now as opposed to poo charts so I’d say that’s definitely a step in the right direction. You never no if we wait a few more days we may actually have a better idea for next week.

my sledge is sat waiting patiently in the shed desperate to get out

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