The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[BLAST FROM THE PAST 13,464]

Frustrating as massive cold plunge to our east with snow for Greece and a Turkey........the type of cold plunge wth deep LPs I had hoped/forecast would be with us right now.  

If we get hit with the cold pattern it will be emphatic but no show really as yet, we have snow forecast to hammer Greece and Turkey.....countries that get 40c summer hot temps.  Cold is there in abundance.......c’mon Atlantic play ball and let us in.

I don’t think a massive HLB pattern beckons and I rely on the displaced PV pattern being west enough and / or LPs diving SSE over our slug to dig the cold in.....in didn’t work in Dec

 

BFTP

Edited January 2, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Roger J Smith 7,449]

I think the Atlantic is in the medical centre getting treatment, it's just that this flabby Euro high did not get the memo that it was supposed to be a few hundred miles further northwest assisting in the arrival of cold, and it's doing only a half-hearted job of clearing and providing home grown cold through radiational cooling (which has been the case in some western districts). 

Once this Euro high becomes a less robust feature cold will find some way through, to my mind the main question is whether we get an exceptional outcome or some sort of intermittent shallow cold that, let's face it, must occur more often than memorable cold spells by law of averages. But even those can produce some good snowfalls. Hell, it even snowed in Feb 2007. Remember that one? 

[Paul Sherman 9,946]

The only pattern I am interested in is most notable Cold Spells are always preceded with a few weeks of High Pressure that cools off the ground with lots of frosts and freezing fog etc. 2010 was no different with a couple of weeks of High Pressure dominated weather at the end of November 2010

1991, 1987 also the same

Get the cold in first and await the snow later.

So although we have to be very patient most other notable spells from the east we have ALWAYS had to endure these phases of weather - We just didnt have the Internet or the lead time to sit around twiddling our thumbs 

[karlos1983 21,819]

Sod it, I’m moving to Greece!

they’re mocking us now 

[weirpig 10,084]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Sod it, I’m moving to Greece!

they’re mocking us now 

Lol  indeed   what im looking for is to see what the Ecm does at 240hrs on the 0z   the Para has a  similar  evolution to the ecm  so hopefully we should start seeing the ecm migrating towards greenland

[snowray 6,042]

Something that I have noticed is that the GFS ensemble members are all over the place in the T96-T144 period, chopping and changing around in such a way that it makes me think that they are picking up conflicting signals at the moment. With the split now starting to take shape, it seems to me that there is going to be a lot more uncertainty until a new pattern emerges. It's probably going to be like birth pains as we await this, but I'm becoming more hopeful that it will be worth it.?

Edited January 2, 2019 by snowray

[Dancerwithwings 5,075]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Sod it, I’m moving to Greece!

they’re mocking us now 

If we can just get the HP to nudge a touch further NW, we'll be in business.

[Roger J Smith 7,449]

I'm sure they don't even want it in Greece or Turkey, well outside of maybe a half dozen weather geeks in each country?

We get spoiled in Canada, when people at the local coffee shop asked me in October if I thought the El Nino would prevent it from snowing here, I just sort of laughed and then so did they. (we are not getting a huge pile in contrast to last year though, currently about 15 cms on ground, last year same time about 50, normal might be 35).

Edited January 2, 2019 by Roger J Smith

[booferking 6,895]

3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

If we can just get the HP to nudge a touch further NW, we'll be in business.

And that's been the story of the winter so far.

[karlos1983 21,819]

4 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I'm sure they don't even want it in Greece or Turkey, well outside of maybe a half dozen weather geeks in each country?

We get spoiled in Canada, when people at the local coffee shop asked me in October if I thought the El Nino would prevent it from snowing here, I just sort of laughed and then so did they. (we are not getting a huge pile in contrast to last year though).

Nah, of course they do! That would be like saying we wouldn’t want a summer heatwave in the uk! 

Edited January 2, 2019 by karlos1983

[Roger J Smith 7,449]

Chicago had the massive total of 1.4" snow in December after over 10" fell in November, so your winter shutout is not confined to western Europe. Normal there is about 7 to 9 inches. My contacts in southern Ontario say the ground has been essentially bare except for a brief cover in mid-November. That is not all that unusual. My memories of winters a half century ago include mostly snowstorms being after mid-January and frequently bare ground at New Years. 

 

[Dancerwithwings 5,075]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

And that's been the story of the winter so far.

Agreed, isn't that always the case 'IFS & BUTS' and we are still here hoping for the Sudden Siberian Winter to materialise ?️

[Stormeh 5,771]

Any one of these two members would do nicely!

[Jason M 3,229]

Interesting GEFS tonight. number 15 is a stunner and just goes all in from around day 8. Then towards the end it decides to throw in the kitchen sink as well ?

Overall, I'd say 'some support' for the idea of an earlier cold spell. 

 

[Empire Of Snow 199]

18z gfs is a massive upgrade. There are already signs of the Azores high moving west, the cold pool within a reasonable time frame extends to the west and it's still early as we might see more upgrades. Some posts about Greece and charts for the 14th Jan don't make any sense (I'm from Greece originally). No snow for Greece if these charts verify in FI. 

[SLEETY 5,571]

34 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

If we can just get the HP to nudge a touch further NW, we'll be in business.

I want to know what is stopping the high pressure building NW. Seen it countless times in the last few decades where UK gets stuck under high pressure and all the cold air goes to SE europe. 

So frustrating!!! 

 

[bradymk 2,154]

These two charts show the clear trend today towards colder conditions in the midterm when comparing tonight’s GEFS 18z mean to the 00z this morning.

a large spread for just day 5/6 too.

[CreweCold 27,597]

Decent start to the 0z runs from the ICON at day 6

Edit: Even better at day 7

Edited January 3, 2019 by CreweCold

[The Eagle 1,947]

ICON quite keen on an easterly at the moment.

[CreweCold 27,597]

GFS closer to the ICON at day 5 than the UKMO...it has that more discrete diving LP

This could be a day 7 E'ly run...

Edited January 3, 2019 by CreweCold

[prolongedSnowLover 1,576]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS closer to the ICON at day 5 than the UKMO...it has that more discrete diving LP

This could be a day 7 E'ly run...

Yes looking better on the overnight runs from Icon and GFS ? Over to the ECM to see if it continues with the more amplified trend.

[The Eagle 1,947]

Close but no cigar on the GFS. UKMO pretty woeful. ICON excellent.

[Connor Bailey Degnan 825]

So far the most boring winter possible, it just seems like we keep constantly being taken up the garden path in the NWP. Let’s hope our fortune changes and fast. icon is very good but no support!!

[SLEETY 5,571]

⛸️⛸️⛸️⛸️?Wow loving the icon and its continuing showing of an easterly. Hope it verifies, even crud model gfs gets close too?

[CreweCold 27,597]

13 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Close but no cigar on the GFS. UKMO pretty woeful. ICON excellent.

The ICON manages to disrupt that LP in the Atlantic sufficiently against the block so that not too much energy powers into the N arm of the jet to sink the HP. GFS debates it then ultimately doesn't split enough from the northern arm of the jet. Fine margins in instances like this...

Two very very different directions after this too. ICON looks retrograde going forward...

Edited January 3, 2019 by CreweCold