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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Frustrating as massive cold plunge to our east with snow for Greece and a Turkey........the type of cold plunge wth deep LPs I had hoped/forecast would be with us right now.  

    If we get hit with the cold pattern it will be emphatic but no show really as yet, we have snow forecast to hammer Greece and Turkey.....countries that get 40c summer hot temps.  Cold is there in abundance.......c’mon Atlantic play ball and let us in.

    I don’t think a massive HLB pattern beckons and I rely on the displaced PV pattern being west enough and / or LPs diving SSE over our slug to dig the cold in.....in didn’t work in Dec

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I think the Atlantic is in the medical centre getting treatment, it's just that this flabby Euro high did not get the memo that it was supposed to be a few hundred miles further northwest assisting in the arrival of cold, and it's doing only a half-hearted job of clearing and providing home grown cold through radiational cooling (which has been the case in some western districts). 

    Once this Euro high becomes a less robust feature cold will find some way through, to my mind the main question is whether we get an exceptional outcome or some sort of intermittent shallow cold that, let's face it, must occur more often than memorable cold spells by law of averages. But even those can produce some good snowfalls. Hell, it even snowed in Feb 2007. Remember that one? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Sod it, I’m moving to Greece!

    94227610-A582-4E9C-BFF0-211CD4C824C6.thumb.png.177c31da48c788ab3775ceb1263de310.png

    they’re mocking us now :wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    Just now, karlos1983 said:

    Sod it, I’m moving to Greece!

    94227610-A582-4E9C-BFF0-211CD4C824C6.thumb.png.177c31da48c788ab3775ceb1263de310.png

    they’re mocking us now :wallbash:

    Lol  indeed   what im looking for is to see what the Ecm does at 240hrs on the 0z   the Para has a  similar  evolution to the ecm  so hopefully we should start seeing the ecm migrating towards greenland

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Something that I have noticed is that the GFS ensemble members are all over the place in the T96-T144 period, chopping and changing around in such a way that it makes me think that they are picking up conflicting signals at the moment. With the split now starting to take shape, it seems to me that there is going to be a lot more uncertainty until a new pattern emerges. It's probably going to be like birth pains as we await this, but I'm becoming more hopeful that it will be worth it.?

    JN66-5.gif

    gfsnh-10-72.png

    gfsnh-10-66.png

    Edited by snowray
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

    Sod it, I’m moving to Greece!

    94227610-A582-4E9C-BFF0-211CD4C824C6.thumb.png.177c31da48c788ab3775ceb1263de310.png

    they’re mocking us now 

    If we can just get the HP to nudge a touch further NW, we'll be in business.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I'm sure they don't even want it in Greece or Turkey, well outside of maybe a half dozen weather geeks in each country?

    We get spoiled in Canada, when people at the local coffee shop asked me in October if I thought the El Nino would prevent it from snowing here, I just sort of laughed and then so did they. (we are not getting a huge pile in contrast to last year though, currently about 15 cms on ground, last year same time about 50, normal might be 35).

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    I'm sure they don't even want it in Greece or Turkey, well outside of maybe a half dozen weather geeks in each country?

    We get spoiled in Canada, when people at the local coffee shop asked me in October if I thought the El Nino would prevent it from snowing here, I just sort of laughed and then so did they. (we are not getting a huge pile in contrast to last year though).

    Nah, of course they do! That would be like saying we wouldn’t want a summer heatwave in the uk! 

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Chicago had the massive total of 1.4" snow in December after over 10" fell in November, so your winter shutout is not confined to western Europe. Normal there is about 7 to 9 inches. My contacts in southern Ontario say the ground has been essentially bare except for a brief cover in mid-November. That is not all that unusual. My memories of winters a half century ago include mostly snowstorms being after mid-January and frequently bare ground at New Years. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    4 minutes ago, booferking said:

    And that's been the story of the winter so far.

    Agreed, isn't that always the case 'IFS & BUTS' and we are still here hoping for the Sudden Siberian Winter to materialise :cold:?️

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    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    Any one of these two members would do nicely!

    C2F958C7-DD8B-463C-B61D-B06CFC864F21.thumb.png.daf81a449f14223d4db81cad87d5cf62.png

    C7B691EB-FFBB-4DD8-9783-3A7E00E9C65C.thumb.png.a6fc8cd0a64cbf1989c47e3668769a9d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Interesting GEFS tonight. number 15 is a stunner and just goes all in from around day 8. Then towards the end it decides to throw in the kitchen sink as well ?

    Overall, I'd say 'some support' for the idea of an earlier cold spell. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m

    18z gfs is a massive upgrade. There are already signs of the Azores high moving west, the cold pool within a reasonable time frame extends to the west and it's still early as we might see more upgrades. Some posts about Greece and charts for the 14th Jan don't make any sense (I'm from Greece originally). No snow for Greece if these charts verify in FI

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    34 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    If we can just get the HP to nudge a touch further NW, we'll be in business.

    I want to know what is stopping the high pressure building NW. Seen it countless times in the last few decades where UK gets stuck under high pressure and all the cold air goes to SE europe. 

    So frustrating!!! 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    These two charts show the clear trend today towards colder conditions in the midterm when comparing tonight’s GEFS 18z mean to the 00z this morning.

    a large spread for just day 5/6 too.

    52F2077F-F4A8-4966-A372-AE0A4ABC3B3A.gif

    1E5EBF88-018F-4341-A2A8-1289FEAFBD9F.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    GFS closer to the ICON at day 5 than the UKMO...it has that more discrete diving LP

    image.thumb.png.9251d9c45824997d03a476227aadc947.png

    This could be a day 7 E'ly run...

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    GFS closer to the ICON at day 5 than the UKMO...it has that more discrete diving LP

    image.thumb.png.9251d9c45824997d03a476227aadc947.png

    This could be a day 7 E'ly run...

    Yes looking better on the overnight runs from Icon and GFS ? Over to the ECM to see if it continues with the more amplified trend.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    So far the most boring winter possible, it just seems like we keep constantly being taken up the garden path in the NWP. Let’s hope our fortune changes and fast. icon is very good but no support!!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    ⛸️⛸️⛸️⛸️?Wow loving the icon and its continuing showing of an easterly. Hope it verifies, even crud model gfs gets close too?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    13 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    Close but no cigar on the GFS. UKMO pretty woeful. ICON excellent.

    The ICON manages to disrupt that LP in the Atlantic sufficiently against the block so that not too much energy powers into the N arm of the jet to sink the HP. GFS debates it then ultimately doesn't split enough from the northern arm of the jet. Fine margins in instances like this...

    Two very very different directions after this too. ICON looks retrograde going forward...

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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