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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Gfs op sort of finds the n Pacific wave..... the para was sniffing it so hopefully it will have a good go with it shortly 

    the more runs that find this, the more solutions we will see played out with it and we will understand just how wide the envelope is on it. 

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Step in the Right direction at day 7

    204F78C5-B811-44DE-90A3-D24EA0131572.png

    9EC84C53-DF66-48DC-A463-9A4C92F443D5.gif

    We even manage to scrape some sort of easterly out of it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Very ECM like from the 18z  could end up being the best run for cold in the medium term. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    The one thing missing  in recent days is now developing over northern Italy , our friendly low pressure to support any high .

     

    Yep I was just thinking that Nick. A nice Genoa low would be a very welcome thing to start becoming a trend over the next few days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    In a nutshell our hopes rest on the long running saga of the shortwave ejecting cleanly east se . 

    Thereafter the upstream low begins to amplify driving the ridge ne ahead of it  . The more dig south southwest of energy upstream the further north the ridge gets downstream .

    The ridge will topple but if you have the supporting northern Italy low then it’s okay.

    I expect a good turn out in the morning ! Our best chance so far this winter to get the cold air further west .

    We just need a bit of luck early on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    Very ECM like from the 18z  could end up being the best run for cold in the medium term. 

    Indeed, could say carbon copy up to t+198, looking at the 12z EC deterministic against the spread (right frames in 2 charts below), there appears fairly reasonable confidence in the high position / tilt near UK Weds and Thurs next week compared to increased mslp spread to the east and west. So hopefully we are seeing firming up on these pressure tendencies and cold air advection toward UK from now on.

    BBC4AD48-F853-4515-B718-60B27E812D88.thumb.png.66cb9249de98506c5e1a015d523ddc1b.png1E5EAD47-E591-4EA8-9226-7A9D2A4C3A78.thumb.png.b33eb0a78755616f165a6fbaee1b7c12.png

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    The 10 day trend we could be in to  a easterly flow later next week but not a strong Signal we could be in a westerly flow.

     

    Edited by abbie123
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    At 240n  the supporting low over Italy has gone  to be replaced by  something altogether less desirable    

    gfsnh-0-240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    At 240n  the supporting low over Italy has gone  to be replaced by  something altogether less desirable    

    gfsnh-0-240.png

    would that not be very cold though?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    Just now, Sweatyman said:

    would that not be very cold though?

    Sorry  mate just a little toilet humour  best stop the red wine.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    The 18z GFS highlighting that although a marked improvement on previous operationals, really could do with low pressure moving E or SE over the Atlantic from Azores towards SW Europe rather than the NE Atlantic high merging with the Azores high ... with energy all over the top and relying on jet returning SW across Europe to the east to keep the high buoyant at high latitudes ... often ends in a sinker without lower heights to the SW.

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    15 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

    Yep I was just thinking that Nick. A nice Genoa low would be a very welcome thing to start becoming a trend over the next few days. 

    The better the mid Atlantic ridge then the better and longer the Northerly flow over the Alps into the Ligurian Sea, this will enhance cyclogenis and deflect the cold air Eastwards.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    GFS dull as dishwater again...at least with regards to what we are really looking for. Some 'faux' cold under high pressure and some cold maritime air giving northwestern areas some snow showers is about as interesting as it gets. 

    Edited by PerfectStorm
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Another light easterly signal from GFS 18z next week for the S / SE.

    image.thumb.png.12fa61356a776b7905aabd46f851bc16.pngimage.thumb.png.a8503200f87b4f2a83397d8d7f6c269a.png

    At least it will will feel a bit more like 'winter' ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Improvement on the 12z.

    image.thumb.png.060176e1f2c50671071663b49a0060e0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Improvement on the 12z.

    image.thumb.png.060176e1f2c50671071663b49a0060e0.png

    An improvement if its modelled correctly.  Interesting to see if that is correct in 16 days time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

    An improvement if its modelled correctly.  Interesting to see if that is correct in 16 days time.

    Not sure what your getting at.

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    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Not sure what your getting at.

    What im saying, is,  I agree that its an improvement looking at it now from the previous run but will it actually look like that in 16 days time at T 0

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

    I think the clue that some of you are looking for is in the ECM tonight. 

    This model is doing what i would expect with the MJO phase today, the effects in ten plus days time.

    What should happen as the MJO moves through phase 6 into 7 is we should see the high pressure try to move North east over the UK and into Scandinavia. This is what i see the ECM trying to do. Whilst the SSW is a starting block for Northern Hemisphere cold, its the MJO phase that includes us in the party, if we get the invite.

    If you look at the latest ECM you can see fairly clearly the attempt to Move the high. Still plenty that can go wrong  but We have the disruption and split of the vortex and we have the MJO move towards a more favourable phase.

    Personally i use 12 days as a good average between any phase and the effect in North west Europe, If we get the High in place, we certainly will have a lot of cold air to tap into. 

    Not added images as you can see yourselves on the ECM model charts

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

    What im saying, is,  I agree that its an improvement looking at it now from the previous run but will it actually look like that in 16 days time at T 0

    Will anything????      but we have to hope to build on it, like next few runs perhaps even widen the split, then another few runs see it at 50mb - whats the point of anything beyond D5 or 6 in trop operational output - whats the point of debating it??

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom

    Encouraging to see slight improvements. Nice to see lows ejected S.E now becoming a form horse. Got to see those heights improve around Svalbard if we want any sort of long lasting Scandi High. Progress though

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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