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phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Yep only goes out to +120 but a notable improvement 

Absolute beauty and a massive upgrade at 120 hours compared to 00z!!if all the models show this by 12z this place gona be buzzing!!a few frosty nights and days followed by a north easterly/easterly bringing snow!!perfect!!

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Absolute beauty and a massive upgrade at 120 hours compared to 00z!!if all the models show this by 12z this place gona be buzzing!!a few frosty nights and days followed by a north easterly/easterly bringing snow!!perfect!!

You might be needing these soon shaky. Asics Fujisetsu. They're what I use for running on icy/snowy forest paths. Perfect grip. 

asics-t3k0n-9793c.jpg

icon-0-120.png

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8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Absolute beauty and a massive upgrade at 120 hours compared to 00z!!if all the models show this by 12z this place gona be buzzing!!a few frosty nights and days followed by a north easterly/easterly bringing snow!!perfect!!

Totally agree, would like to have seen that run continue.

Hopefully the 12Zs carry on from where the 06z left off 🙂

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Watch the 06z be stonker on the GFS and the ECM to back track later . Because.. That's the way lol

In all fairness expecting GFS to play catch up soon 

 

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7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

You might be needing these soon shaky. Asics Fujisetsu. They're what I use for running on icy/snowy forest paths. Perfect grip. 

asics-t3k0n-9793c.jpg

icon-0-120.png

I know thats the only downside but..........nothing is stopping me from running😎!!charts this morning have given me a boost as well so wana run even more lol!!

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Posted (edited)

It would be nice to see this theme continue throughout the day, I feel we need some consistency before getting to carried away.. take yesterday for example, all over the place, so I’m going to be cautiously optimistic.. a good start to the day, although The UKMO isn’t great which is a worry.

Edited by karlos1983
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GFS 78 follows the ICON upstream...

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 78 follows the ICON upstream...

And will likely lose the plot soonafter...

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 78 follows the ICON upstream...

Yup was just bout to say upgrades at 72 hours on gfs!!keep em coming!these are big changes so early on!!

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And will likely lose the plot soonafter...

And this also what i was gona say after my initial post about 40 secs ago!!gfs will most probably lose the plot!!

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Posted (edited)

The low is much more developed at day 4 and even less phasing 

5EF1DED7-0426-4236-94EF-B8DBA03E1BF3.png

F70172EA-6E93-45AD-8F83-96C8EA7EFCCD.png

Edited by Weathizard

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That’s also windchill values. Not actual temperature.

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Well that is a monumental upgrade of a ridge into greeenland on the 120 hours 06z gfs!!

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Posted (edited)

GFS blows that shortwave into a well defined low which prevents it from dropping SE like the ICON. Might be ok still.

I’m staying Grounded (boring) for now

Edited by karlos1983
Typo
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27 minutes ago, shaky said:

I know thats the only downside but..........nothing is stopping me from running😎!!charts this morning have given me a boost as well so wana run even more lol!!

i also did not think i would be half Marathon training in the snow and frost given the model output over the last few weeks, but hey ho, the weather and training stop for nothing. 

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Well that is a monumental upgrade of a ridge into greeenland on the 120 hours 06z gfs!!

Upgrade for cold but is it likely to be more correct than the 00Z?

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Only one way the high pressure can go now? To the NE!

image.thumb.png.a7f5533519014e76896239a77c757ebe.png

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Just now, PerfectStorm said:

Only one way the high pressure can go now? To the NE!

image.thumb.png.a7f5533519014e76896239a77c757ebe.png

Or, it could just sink back over us.

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Couple more upgrades like this and.......!!! I’m going to Sunderland on the 12th to watch my team play. Location had something to do with the choice of the away day 😄

2E03E905-0615-4C0C-8E45-CF94C5A22847.png

5A506FC0-5E60-46F1-B0D3-67703E6940E5.png

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1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Upgrade for cold but is it likely to be more correct than the 00Z?

Surely given the data inputted is 6hrs newer then it is more likely to be correct.

You may as well say is it more likely to be correct than the 12z 1st January.

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Or, it could just sink back over us.

It wouldn't dare! image.thumb.png.5523cd42d3dd7caaa9c7264acb06ef71.png

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Or, it could just sink back over us.

Unlikely on this run as the Low is building/pushing SW towards Iberia. We'll see! 

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