The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Devonshire]

7 hours ago, jules216 said:

Luckily we in Slovakia have at least had intermittent cold snaps which at least gave some credence to my musing about potentially cold Europe this winter.

Hang on - your avatar says you are in Co. Wicklow!!!

[nick sussex]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Can clearly see why mean heights are trapped over/ to the SW of us on that 3D plot. It's the Canadian vortex doing the damage.

If I remember rightly quite a few years ago we had a SSW which left a lobe in ne Canada . And that flattened the downstream pattern . It’s amazing a meteor could hit the planet and the as I call it the PV lobe of death would still be limpeted to ne Canada!

The biggest problem besides that in recent years has been getting a negative NAO.  We have seen quite a few negative AOs but trying to go that  further step has been like pulling teeth .

Edited January 6, 2019 by nick sussex

[Day_9]

4 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

to be honest - waiting for this is more frustrating than waiting or the brutal winter to land!!!

Thats because we live in a world where we are becoming trained to expect instant response.  Likes, clicks, instant feed.

I haven’t generally got much of a clue, I just love ice cold weather, snow, harsh frosts etc.

what I do know is that the globe and processes involved in it are larger and more complex than most of our abilities’ to comprehend.

it’s therefore highly likely that changes in any weather pattern are usually in the order of  weeks rather than minutes or hours.

 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If I remember rightly quite a few years ago we had a SSW which left a lobe in ne Canada . And that flattened the downstream pattern . It’s amazing a meteor could hit the planet and the as I call it the PV lobe of death would still be limpeted to ne Canada!

That was after the tpv was blown apart with the chunks settling in various places ....... we got v unfortunate there with that chunk prevent8ng the severe cold in e Europe being able to advert as far as the uk for more than one brief spell bringing one snowfall 

anyway, the gfs op a little more compact on the tpv as it approaches low res 

[Johnp]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here she comes though on the 18z.

Here comes what?

[blizzard81]

Just now, Johnp said:

Here comes what?

Mmmm! Was thinking the same. 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That was after the tpv was blown apart with the chunks settling in various places ....... we got v unfortunate there with that chunk prevent8ng the severe cold in e Europe being able to advert as far as the uk for more than one brief spell bringing one snowfall 

anyway, the gfs op a little more compact on the tpv as it approaches low res 

You have a great memory ! I remember now , we had some snow and were expecting more then a little chunk of that PV set up shop in you know where !

[Weathizard]

mazing how consistent the models are when they are churning out dirge isn’t it. 

This is just what I wanted for Christmas.  

[weirpig]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Mmmm! Was thinking the same. 

i think he was talking about the PV  latching on to NE Canada.  However  the PV on this run as moved slightly away.

[Allseasons-Si]

Strong trop pv to our NW!!!

look what could happen

[Bartlett High]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Strong trop pv to our NW!!!

look what could happen

But probably won't.

[karlos1983]

Well at least it won’t be boring   

[weirpig]

264   start of the demise of the PV?.   

 

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Here comes what?

Patience - i will tell you in a minute.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Synoptic garbage at this point- trop PV residing west of Greenland with no discernible pressure pattern to match- just open isobars of nothing...

[karlos1983]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Patience - i will tell you in a minute.

Lol  

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Well at least it won’t be boring   

Likewise

lets get this stagnent pattern shifted out of the way and a pattern reset,BTW didn't the Meto text say some unsettled windy weather then colder later,i will take that.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Patience - i will tell you in a minute.

You mean this ?

[ICE COLD]

Followed by this . 

[Kev smith scfc]

2 hours ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

MY CURRENT VIEWS ON THE MODELS AND THE OUTLOOK

That was a great post @Kirkcaldy Weather and should be read by all those who are moaning about the output.  I have very little time now or for a few days - so rather than show loads of charts, I'll make a few bullet point statements on the background signals, the model output and several general comments.

• No two SSWs are alike - I do not know how many times that has to be said.
• In my last two posts I tried to show what to look out for with comparisons to the current set up and charts with the 2018 and 2013 SSWs (part 3 on 2009 with likenesses and differences to 2019 to follow by next weekend).
• What those archived charts showed was just how quickly the HLB patterns developed and the whole northern hemisphere set up changed and evolved.
• I noted John's @johnholmes comments this morning wrt examining archived "forecast" charts prior to earlier SSW events - something I suggested too - they're available for most of the models now and certainly the big 3.
• John also queried whether or which previous SSWs had failed to deliver any significant cold here in the UK.  I'll just repeat a table here:

• We know that 2018 and 2013 delivered big time and they were split SSW events (2013 displaced and then split) and so did 2008//09 and 2009/10 both also split. The last displaced SSW was in 2007/08 and I believe that can be considered a failure but for that and earlier events, we need to check the archives - and I haven't got time for that but anyone can go by the table above and check the archive charts for the whole SSW period.  Here's the link again:  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=1&day=20&year=2008&map=4&type=ncep  I set it to Jan 20th 2008 to get you started.
• We can take comfort in the fact that most (perhaps almost all) split SSWs have produced decent periods of HLB which have delivered cold to the UK.
• The teleconnections have NOT let us down at all and contrary to what the usual suspects might be saying through their impatience. 
• In fact they are almost spot on in terms of what we expected from them - there's a slight problem over precise timing but that's always the case with SSWs and such dramatic pattern changes (which the models cannot handle). 
• The next three comments were confirmed to me by @Tamaraby PM and I hope she doesn't mind my referring to them as she will continue to avoid this thread with all the confrontation and I fully sympathise with her (our loss).
• The tropical/extra tropical cycle and forcing has been sufficient to amplify the tropospheric pattern and it's just that the polar field has not "yet" been conducive for HLB and stratospheric dimuition. 
• She thinks that in January 2013 the tropopause was more receptive  at this stage than it has been so far this time.
• She feels that "its still barely into the second week of January and there is far too much overreaction in general".  
• Back to my own comments: That means in both directions - no cold patterns showing or a Siberian wasteland - we're somewhere in the middle right now. 
• We've a substantial split event ongoing and the best news is that this SSW seems likely to be very protracted, perhaps approaching the 2013 record length and some records are already being achieved up there.  
• We should have at least two or three bites at the cherry.  
• The lagged impacts of the MJO through phases 6, 7 and now into 8 may show up within the next 7 to 10 days - favouring HLB.
• I see that for once the GEFS (bias corrected version) and the ECM are both in broad agreement for a change (long may that last but do not hold your breath) and week 2 MJO forecasts and notoriously unreliable..
• Although they dive into the COD soon, they both look set to re-emerge in phase 6 and maybe for a quick "rinse and repeat" through phases 6, 7, 8 and 1 again in early Feb.(perhaps later). Something to keep an eye on for sure.
• The lagged effects of the GWO in phases 5 and 6, albeit at slightly weaker AAM than we had expected is still strong enough to have +ve impacts for the next two weeks. This cycle is likely to repeat in or by early Feb too.
• The temporary weakening in the El Nino seems to be over and it looks sets to strengthen again - a better tropical state with a weak Nino - gentle forcing but not too strong like the 2015 super Nino..
• Meanwhile, the SPV destruction continues and may take many days, weeks or perhaps not at all to reform into a more organised fashion.  
• Overall - an exceptional and truly fascinating period for all the atmospheric processes with an extremely high chance of cold patterns setting up later this month and perhaps for much of February too..
• We are about to see a transition to a less settled phase but this is probably a sign that there are changes to feed through from the Arctic and towards the mid latitudes - merely timing issues IMHO.
• Looking at the models, I see that a good number of ensemble members show charts which develop HLB blocking patterns - some as early as day 7/8 and building on the Arctic outbreak, others do this later on in the run.
• If you study those charts from 2018 and 2013 and indeed some other pre/during/post split SSW events, you'll see that the initial impacts can almost always be seen close to the pole. 
• Several GEFS ens show a "yellow" HP - a strong sign of a full reversal reaching the surface.  Some show heights building towards a proper Greenland HP and some towards Scandinavia.  
• Do not worry about the TPV still looking immovable on our side of the Arctic.  What should happen is as (when - not if IMHO) the wind reversals reach the surface is that those low heights are displaced southwards - almost bulldozed out of the way.  Quite often a lobe drops into Scandi and it "looks" like we'll see a true northerly but that would likely be short-lived and transitory but not the normal "toppler type" either.  What happens is that HP builds around the top of the LP and pushes that south into central and southern Europe.  Then that opens the pathway for Siberian and Russian heights to push westwards (which occurred in dramatic fashion to create the "Beast" last Feb/Mar.). Although easterlies have been a rarity in the last 30 years they were much more common back in the '60s to '80s and even mild winters saw several outbreaks. Those associated with SSWs are usually very potent. Then the HP can build towards Iceland and Greenland letting in a true Arctic air stream with north to north east winds - many of our coldest winters see an easterly/northerly combo.
• When will all this happen? I'm very confident of "this" winter and well before Spring.  No guarantees - there never can be but the current set up is on the verge of something quite dramatic. Frankly, with the strat state as it is and taking account of the other teleconnections, I'll be astounded if we do not see a memorable cold spell in much of Europe, the UK and eastern CONUS, eastern Canada as well as large parts of Asia/Russia/Siberia - not all at the same time but we should all see periods of extended wintry weather. 
• So, please, please be patient and accept that the models will struggle - which I and others have been saying for a while and I've shown that there has been a slight delay - not for weeks on end!.   

When I'm on here again at the end of this week, I hope that we can all be focusing on some much more attractive output in the mid term. 

David  

Top post top man so level headed,if we don't get any cold this winter it will be the most unluckiest winter on record.

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

But probably won't.

The 18z going for something similar at just 300 hrs not 500+ lol

[booferking]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Followed by this . 

Nice so let's see if we can get one of these charts inside 120hr.

[Singularity]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Synoptic garbage at this point- trop PV residing west of Greenland with no discernible pressure pattern to match- just open isobars of nothing...

That’s what a very deeply cold airmass can do when independent from the main vortex.

Model guidance looks to be converging on 19th or 20th being ‘landing day’ for the first directly strat-forced changes outside the Arctic Ocean; sudden manifestation of wedges of high pressure at around 65-70 N.

The way the chain of troughs suddenly breaks down is very telling.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You mean this ?

Yes. Not great ending though - collapsing - wait for the GEFS though.

[nick sussex]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Synoptic garbage at this point- trop PV residing west of Greenland with no discernible pressure pattern to match- just open isobars of nothing...

It’s the gateway to hell thats why ! 

I’d actually call anything in late GFS output garbage . The 12 hrs had a nice block this run ditches that and also has the main PV on a completely different side of the NH !

Its a complete waste of space . I really don’t know why they continue to bother running the GFS past day ten . 

Theres a reason they don’t put out verification stats for the GFS past day ten ! Or they have them and they’re under armed guard in the Pentagon! 

Edited January 6, 2019 by nick sussex